科技期刊发展的挑战与机遇

中国加入世贸组织后 ,面对开放的世界性大市场的直接冲击 ,我国出版发行行业的竞争必将更加激烈。优胜劣汰 ,会直接考验每个出版社、每份期刊。为了使我国的期刊在竞争中成为胜者 ,探讨了科技期刊参与竞争的困难与优势 ,提出了如何提高我国科技期刊竞争力的粗浅看法     

Simulation of artificial random field considering the temporal-spatial variation

Introduction For the seismic design of special structures such as nuclear power station, marine platform, long-span bridge and dam, generally the time-history response analysis of the structure under seismic excitation is imperative, which was coded in most seismic design codes. The earthquake records suitable for the seismic situation and site condition are necessary to be used as the seismic input in the dynamic analysis of structures. As a result of the limited observational condition of st…     

漾濞地震震源位置分析

采用一致的地震震相和台网布局，应用昆明数字地震台网资料，对2002年月1月4日－1月7日的漾濞地震及序列作进一步核定，得出了更精确的地震震源位置，并作出三维空间图。     

2001年1月2 6日印度古杰拉特(Gujarat)Ｍem>Ssub>7.8地震时空破裂过程

从全球数字地震台网的长周期记录中，选择了震中距小于90的27个台站的54个P波震相和44个S波震相资料．首先，用波形反演方法确定了2001年1月26日印度古杰拉特(Gujarat)ＭS7.8地震的地震矩张量、震源机制、震源时间函数和时空破裂过程等震源参数．通过矩张量反演，并根据Kutch Mainland断层的走向、地震烈度的空间分布、余震震源的空间分布和震害的空间分布，确认2001年1月26日印度古杰拉特ＭS7.8地震的发震断层的走向为92、倾角为58、滑动角为62，即一走向近东-西向、断层面向南倾斜、以逆冲为主的左旋-逆断层．这次地震所释放的地震矩为3.51020 Nm，矩震级ＭW＝7.6．然后，借助合成地震图，采用频率域求谱商的方法，得到了依赖于台站方位的27个P波震源时间函数、22个S波震源时间函数以及平均的P波震源时间函数和S波震源时间函数．对震源时间函数的分析表明，这次地震是一次连续的破裂事件，开始比较急遽，但结束比较迟缓，总持续时间约19 s．最后，以所提取的P波和S波震源时间函数为资料，采用时间域的反演技术得到了断层面上滑动的时空分布．滑动量在断层面上的静态分布表明，断层面上的最大滑动量约为7 m．断层面上的最大应力降约为30 MPa，平均应力降约为7 MPa．滑动量大于0.5 m的区域在走向方向长85 km，在断层面倾斜方向宽约60 km(相应地，在深度方向约51 km)．破裂向东扩展约50 km，向西扩展约35 km．滑动量大于0.5 m的区域的主要部分呈椭圆形，其长轴取向与断层滑动方向一致．表明此区域破裂扩展的方向即是断层错动的方向．这种现象对于走滑断层情形是多见的，但对逆冲断层情形却少见．断层面上初始破裂点以东、以上部分面积大于初始破裂点以西、以下部分的面积，这是破裂非对称性的表现，表明破裂具有自西向东、自下向上单侧破裂的特征．从滑动率随时空变化的快照可以看出，滑动率在第4 s达到最大值，此时滑动率约为0.2 m/s，滑动基本上发生在破裂起始点及其周围．从第6 s开始，起始点的破裂基本结束，破裂开始向外围扩展．破裂向西的扩展速度明显小于向东的扩展速度．在第15 s，这种环形的扩展基本结束．自16 s以后，主要是一些零星的破裂点分布在破裂区的外围．从滑动量随时空变化的快照看，破裂自起始点开始后，逐渐向四周扩展．主要的破裂(滑动量大于5 m的区域)在6～10 s，具有明显的自西向东、向上的单侧破裂特征．在第11～13 s，破裂的西端向西、向下有所扩展．整个破裂过程持续约19 s．在整个破裂过程中的平均破裂速度约为3.3 km/s．      

Development of site-specific design ground motions in Western and Eastern North America

This paper presents results recently obtained for generating site-specific ground motions needed for design of critical facilities. The general approach followed in developing these ground motions using either deterministic or probabilistic criteria is specification of motions for rock outcrop or very firm soil conditions followed by adjustments for site-specific conditions. Central issues in this process include development of appropriate attenuation relations and their uncertainties, differences in expected motions between Western and Eastern North America, and incorporation of site-specific adjustments that maintain the same hazard level as the control motions, while incorporating uncertainties in local dynamic material properties. For tectonically active regions, such as the Western United States (WUS), sufficient strong motion data exist to constrain empirical attenuation relations for M up to about 7 and for distances greater than about 10–15 km. Motions for larger magnitudes and closer distances are largely driven by extrapolations of empirical relations and uncertainties need to be substantially increased for these cases.

For the Eastern United States (CEUS), due to the paucity of strong motion data for cratonic regions worldwide, estimation of strong ground motions for engineering design is based entirely on calibrated models. The models are usually calibrated and validated in the WUS where sufficient strong motion data are available and then recalibrated for applications to the CEUS. Recalibration generally entails revising parameters based on available CEUS ground motion data as well as indirect inferences through intensity observations. Known differences in model parameters such as crustal structure between WUS and CEUS are generally accommodated as well. These procedures are examined and discussed.     

Shallow seismicity, stress distribution and crustal deformation pattern in the Andaman-West Sunda arc and Andaman Sea, northeastern Indian Ocean

Shallow seismicity and available source mechanisms in the Andaman–westSunda arc and Andaman sea region suggest distinct variation in stressdistribution pattern both along and across the arc in the overriding plate.Seismotectonic regionalisation indicates that the region could be dividedinto eight broad seismogenic sources of relatively homogeneousdeformation. Crustal deformation rates have been determined for each oneof these sources based on the summation of moment tensors. The analysisshowed that the entire fore arc region is dominated by compressive stresseswith compression in a mean direction of N23^°, and the rates ofseismic deformation velocities in this belt decrease northward from 5.2± 0.65 mm/yr near Nias island off Sumatra and 1.12 ±0.13 mm/yr near Great Nicobar islands to as much as 0.4 ±0.04 mm/yr north of 8^°N along Andaman–Nicobar islandsregion. The deformation velocities indicate, extension of 0.83 ±0.05 mm/yr along N343^° and compression of 0.19 ±0.01 mm/yr along N73^° in the Andaman back arc spreadingregion, extension of 0.18 ± 0.01 mm/yr along N125^° andcompression of 0.16 ± 0.01 mm/yr along N35^° in NicobarDeep and west Andaman fault zone, compression of 0.84 ±0.12 mm/yr N341^° and extension of 0.77 ± 0.11 mm/yralong N72^° within the transverse tectonic zone in the Andamantrench, N-S compression of 3.19 ± 0.29 mm/yr and an E-Wextension of 1.24 ± 0.11 mm/yr in the Semangko fault zone ofnorth Sumatra. The vertical deformation suggests crustal thinning in theAndaman sea and crustal thickening in the fore arc and Semangko faultzones. The apparent stresses calculated for all major events range between0.1–10 bars and the values increase with increasing seismic moment.However, the apparent stress estimates neither indicate any significantvariation with faulting type nor display any variation across the arc, incontrast to the general observation that the fore arc thrust events showhigher stress levels in the shallow subduction zones. It is inferred that theoblique plate convergence, partial subduction of 90^°E Ridge innorth below the Andaman trench and the active back arc spreading are themain contributing factors for the observed stress field within the overridingplate in this region.     

Foreshocks and aftershocks of the M W = 7.1, 1992, earthquake in the Atrato region, Colombia

We study the October 18, M _W = 7.1, 1992 Atrato earthquake, and its foreshocks and aftershocks, which occurred in the Atrato valley, northwestern Colombia. The main shock was preceded by several foreshocksof which the M _W = 6.6, October 17 earthquacke was the largest. Inparticular, we examine foreshocks and aftershocks performing joint-hypocenter relocations using high quality Pn and Sn wave readingsfrom permanent regional networks. We observed a few hours prior to the main shock a sudden increase of foreshocks. Maybe this could be used as a predictor since foreshocks have been known for other major events in the region. Our locations align for 90 km with a trend of 5^° ±4^° in agreement with the Harvard CMT solution showing the faultplane trending 9^° to be the plane of rupture. In relation to theepicenter of the main shock, maximum intensities were located to thesouth, consistent with a rupture that traveled from north to south witha larger energy release in the south as suggested by an empirical Green'sfunction study (Li and Toksöz, 1993; Ammon et al., 1994). The boundarybetween the Panama and North Andes blocks has been placed close to thePanama-Colombia border as either a sharp boundary or a diffuse zone. TheAtrato earthquake, however, shows that the plate boundary between thePanama and North Andes microblocks is a diffuse deformation zone. Thiszone has a width of at least 2^° stretching from 78^°W to 76^°W. Quantification of earthquake moment release (during the past30 years) in this zone shows a similar amount of moment release in thewestern and eastern parts of this zone.     

地震预报思路的再讨论

文中回顾了1974年提出的“块、带、源、兆、触、报”六字预报思路，并基于近20年来的研究对此进行了补充和深化。     

上海地震台阵的地震定位方法

详细介绍了上海地震台阵数据处理软件系统中的地震定位方法，用台阵的聚束方法得到地震的方位角和视慢度，根据统计得到的视慢度－震中距表推算震中距。并结合了地震台网的定位方法，由单台记录的各类主要震相从J－B走时表得到震中距，然后进行地震定位。该定位方法可对近震、远震进行定位处理，并由深震相得到震源深度。     

A New Model for Heat Flow in Extensional Basins: Estimating Radiogenic Heat Production

Radiogenic heat production (RHP) represents a significant fraction of surface heat flow, both on cratons and in sedimentary basins. RHP within continental crust—especially the upper crust—is high. RHP at any depth within the crust can be estimated as a function of crustal age. Mantle RHP, in contrast, is always low, contributing at most 1 to 2 mW/m² to total heat flow. Radiogenic heat from any noncrystalline basement that may be present also contributes to total heat flow. RHP from metamorphic rocks is similar to or slightly lower than that from their precursor sedimentary rocks. When extension of the lithosphere occurs—as for example during rifting—the radiogenic contribution of each layer of the lithosphere and noncrystalline basement diminishes in direct proportion to the degree of extension of that layer. Lithospheric RHP today is somewhat less than in the distant past, as a result of radioactive decay. In modeling, RHP can be varied through time by considering the half lives of uranium, thorium, and potassium, and the proportional contribution of each of those elements to total RHP from basement. RHP from sedimentary rocks ranges from low for most evaporites to high for some shales, especially those rich in organic matter. The contribution to total heat flow of radiogenic heat from sediments depends strongly on total sediment thickness, and thus differs through time as subsidence and basin filling occur. RHP can be high for thick clastic sections. RHP in sediments can be calculated using ordinary or spectral gamma-ray logs, or it can be estimated from the lithology.