黄河上游河南县地面大气冰核观测分析

用Bigg型混合云室对2001年8月黄河上游青海省河南县的地面大气冰核浓度进行了观测,分析发现(1)青海省河南县冰核浓度低于北京20世纪90年代的测值,但高于大连、西安和兰州(20世纪60年代)等地的测值,同时也高于黄河上游的玛曲(2000年)、西宁(1989年)两地的测值,高温核尤其偏高.(2)降水时大气冰核浓度减少,降水的冲刷可能是其主要原因.(3)当地冰核浓度和气压成正相关.(4)大气冰核浓度受风向的影响,无风时测值较小,偏东风时测值较大,高温核浓度增加明显.     

海洋和大气对Chandler摆动激发的贡献

用1985～1995年期间海洋角动量变化序列和大气角动量变化序列,分析它们对Chandler摆动的激发能量以及它们与天文观测激发的相干性. 结果表明，在Chandler摆动频带内，海洋角动量变化提供的激发能量大约占观测激发的64髎，其中洋底压力变化起主导作用；NCEP/NCAR(美国国家环境预测中心/国家大气研究中心)和JMA(日本气象厅)大气角动量变化提供的激发能量分别为观测激发的23髎和214髎. 海洋激发与观测激发的相干系数约为0.52，接近99髎置信度下限(0.54)，海洋激发的相位滞后观测激发约19°；NCEP/NCAR和JMA的大气激发与观测激发的相干系数分别为0.32和0.37，大气激发的相位超前观测激发分别约47°和19°. 用更短期间(9年、6年)的海洋和大气角动量序列与更长期间(16、39年)的大气角动量序列作分析表明，在Chandler摆动频带内，无论是它们的激发能量，还是它们与观测激发之间的相干系数都呈现很大的变化，而且这些变化具有某种程度的随机性.     

A Case Study of Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar Signatures of Spatially Evolving Atmospheric Convection over the Western Atlantic Ocean

A case study of a particularly intense cold air outbreak over the northAtlantic Ocean extending from the northeast coast of the UnitedStates to the Gulf Stream is described. A RADARSAT satellite synthetic apertureradar (SAR) image of this outbreak dramatically illustrates the spatialevolution of convection. Nearly coincident images from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very HighResolution Radiometer are used to compare many interesting features.In addition, National Weather Service rawinsonde data, National Data Buoy Center buoy data, and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Coastal Mixing and Optics mooring data arepresented. We use these data to help describe the spatial evolution of the atmospheric boundary-layer processes involved in this outbreak.Rows of cellular convective clouds begin to appear some distance offshore and then slowly increase in horizontal diameter and wavelength in the downwind direction, with a subsequent jump in cloud diameter downwind of the Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW). The SAR image shows a similar evolution of sea-surface footprints of these boundary-layer features. This change in boundary-layer structure is attributed to corresponding changes in static stability. About 300 km south of the GSNW in the SAR image, an even larger jump in cell diameter appears and the cells becomenon-uniform with bright crescents and filled semi-circles on thedownwind sides of the cells. These are believed to be surface effectsof gust fronts induced by the mesoscale cellular convection and enhanced by the overall northwesterly flow.     

大气气溶胶光学厚度的宽带消光遥感方法及其应用

该文发展了遥感气溶胶光学厚度的一个宽带消光遥感方法 ,它应用地面上太阳直射表探测的宽波段太阳直射信息反演 0 75 μm大气柱光学厚度。这方法的主要误差因子是气溶胶谱的不确定性。数值试验表明 ,气溶胶谱分布的误差所引起光学厚度解的误差一般小于 5 %。 1995年 1— 10月进行的 12 6 7组对比实验表明 ,由本方法探测的气溶胶光学厚度与光度计探测的气溶胶光学厚度的标准差为 10 5 % ,两者平均结果的偏差只有 0 7%。该文还应用这个方法 ,从气象台站辐射观测资料反演得到北京、沈阳等 10个地方 1980— 1994年间晴天气溶胶光学厚度资料 ,并分析其变化规律     

线性和非线性风应力对海-气耦合波的影响

在略去Ｒｅｙｌｅｉｇｈ摩擦和Ｎｅｗｔｏｎ冷却的条件下，采用定常的线性大气模式和半地转近似的非线性海洋模式，讨论了线性和非线性风应力对海－气耦合Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波的影响，结果表明，当耦合波处于非线性不稳定的情况下，线性和非线性风应力均可产生孤立波，不同之处在于，非线性风应力所产笺波图像具有间断特点，波能的急剧聚集有可能使波的性质发生变化。     

一种基于浑沌理论的联想记忆神经网络模型

根据联想记忆神经网络的基本原理，提出了一种基于浑沌理论的联想记忆神经网络模型及相应的求解方案，并对该种模型进行了预报试验。结果表明，该种模型的历史预报准确率和实际预报准确率均超过一般随机预报，值得进一步研究和应用。     

大陆地震的动力学模型研究

应用非线性动力学模型，以大陆构造构体为参照对象，对大陆地震的成组孕育和发生过程进行模拟研究，通过对６×８弹簧－滑块－阻尼器组合单元非线性动力学模型的理论计算及其结果的分析，得到了一系列与实际地震较类似的人工地震图像，如模型中的地震活动在时间上有轮回怀，在地点上有条带性，并在不同轮回中有条过移的现象。模型中应力变化十分复杂，但仍能为预测地震提供概略性的信息。     

AN EVALUATION OF SEVERAL TURBULENCE SCHEMES FOR THE PREDICTION OF MEAN AND TURBULENT FIELDS IN COMPLEX TERRAIN

A prognostic three-dimensional mesoscale model has been developed andused in one- and two-dimensional modes to evaluate ten local turbulenceclosure schemes. The schemes ranged from first-order to the two-equationprognostic schemes. Predictions by the models were compared for aone-dimensional convective boundary layer using mixed layer scaling andmeasurements to interpret the results. Two-dimensional simulations were alsoperformed for a sea-breeze flow and for flow over a hill. The results showedthat for all of the models considered, minor differences were produced in themean meteorological fields and in the vertical scalar fluxes, but majordifferences were apparent in the velocity variances and dissipation rate.Predicted tracer concentrations were very sensitive to the turbulence modelformulation for dispersion from a point source in the convective boundarylayer, particularly for the prediction of maximum concentrations. Predictedtracer concentrations from a surface volume source for the two-dimensionalsimulations were similar for all models, although the degree of mixing in themorning growth period produced some differences. Generally, good results forthe mean meteorological fields can be obtained with first-order schemes, evenif they underpredict the magnitude of turbulence in the convective boundarylayer, and reasonable tracer concentrations can also be obtained with thesemodels provided near-source effects are not important. The two-equationprognostic models performed best for the prediction of turbulence in theconvective boundary layer.     

QN—模型及其在覆盖区资源靶区预测中的应用

本文把数量化理论Ⅲ与Ｑ－型非线性映射在机地结合在一起，定义了一种新的数学模型－ＱＮ－模型。详细地介绍了该模型的基本原理和计算步骤，给出了模型在覆盖区资源靶区以预测中应用的实例。