大气热源年代际异常与20世纪70年代末期东亚夏季风年代际减弱

利用1958-2001年ERA-40再分析资料计算大气热源,统计分析了亚洲季风区及其邻近海域大气热源年代际变异的典型模态;利用线性斜压干模式,模拟了夏季大气对大气热源年代际异常的响应,揭示了大气热源年代际异常与1970s末期东亚夏季风年代际减弱的关系。结果表明:近50 a来亚洲及其邻近海域夏季整层大气热源变异主要表现为年代际变化特征,其年代际位相转换发生在1970s中后期,这与东亚夏季风年代际减弱的时间一致;菲律宾附近海域和中国西南地区是与东亚夏季风年代际减弱有直接联系的两个热源异常关键区;东亚夏季风年代际减弱最直接地表现为这两个关键区热源异常的共同作用,而赤道中东太平洋、赤道印度洋大气热源增强则通过大气遥响应机制影响菲律宾附近海域低层大气环流异常对东亚夏季风变异起相反的贡献。     

中高纬度大气低频模态研究进展

大气低频模态是导致中高纬地区季节及气候变化的主要因素,加强低频模态动力机制的认识对于提高短期气候预测水平具有十分重要的科研意义和应用价值。由于中高纬大气低频环流本身的复杂性,关于其动力机制的研究仍然是大气动力学中重点难点问题。本文简单回顾了激发维持低频模态的前两种机制,即:外源强迫、气流的纬向非均匀性对大气低频模态的影响。从观测事实和模式结果出发,着重介绍了瞬变波与基本气流相互作用激发维持低频模态的第三种机制,且详细阐述了线性假设条件下,瞬变波与基本气流相互作用的动力机制。本文最后针对瞬变波与基本气流相互作用研究中一些尚未解决的问题进行了讨论。     

Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change

This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2 °C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice.     

卡尔曼滤波器在卫星遥感影像大地校正中的应用

在卫星遥感图像的预处理中,通过系统校正可以基本上消除影像内部的变形误差。然而,整幅影像的大地定位误差仍然是很大的,甚至几百米至1公里的数量级。本文介绍利用少量的地面控制点,采用递归算法而不是批处理算法,大大地提高大地定位精度。在单幅影像处理中,可以重新对卫星的轨道参数与姿态参数进行估值,从而提高影像的大地定位精度。在一条轨道上连续的多幅影像中,可以预报下一幅影像的大地位置,从而对那些不具有地面控制点的影像的大地校正中,实现外推计算。文中介绍并推导了卡尔曼滤波器方程中的转移矩阵和测量矩阵的系数,并推荐用数值回归的办法求得其数值解。文中最后介绍模拟试验及算法计算结果,并讨论其优缺点。     

Abundances of Jupiter's trace hydrocarbons from Voyager and Cassini

The flybys of Jupiter by the Voyager spacecraft in 1979, and over two decades later by Cassini in 2000, have provided us with unique datasets from two different epochs, allowing the investigation of seasonal change in the atmosphere. In this paper we model zonal averages of thermal infrared spectra from the two instruments, Voyager 1 IRIS and Cassini CIRS, to retrieve the vertical and meridional profiles of temperature, and the abundances of the two minor hydrocarbons, acetylene (C₂H₂) and ethane (C₂H₆). The spatial variation of these gases is controlled by both chemistry and dynamics, and therefore their observed distribution gives us an insight into both processes. We find that the two gases paint quite different pictures of seasonal change. Whilst the 2-D cross-section of C₂H₆ abundance is slightly increased and more symmetric in 2000 (northern summer solstice) compared to 1979 (northern fall equinox), the major trend of equator to pole increase remains. For C₂H₂ on the other hand, the Voyager epoch exhibits almost no latitudinal variation, whilst the Cassini era shows a marked decrease polewards in both hemispheres. At the present time, these experimental findings are in advance of interpretation, as there are no published models of 2-D Jovian seasonal chemical variation available for comparison.     

Simulation of the Askervein flow. Part 2: Large-eddy simulations

Large-eddy simulations of the neutrally stratified flow over the Askervein Hill were performed, to improve the knowledge of the flow obtained from field measurements and numerical simulations with Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methods. A Lagrangian dynamic subgrid model was used but, to avoid the underdissipative character near the ground, it was merged with a damped Smagorinsky model. Simulations of a flat boundary-layer flow with this subgrid model showed that the turbulent vertical motions and shear stress were better resolved using grids with a stream to spanwise aspect ratio Δx / Δy = 2 than with an aspect ratio Δx / Δy = 1. Regarding the flow over the Askervein Hill, it was found that large-eddy simulations provide an acceptable solution for the mean-velocity field and better predictions of the turbulent kinetic energy in the upstream side of the hill than the model. However, as with the model, grid convergence was not achieved in the lee side and the size of the zone with reversed flow increased with the grid refinement. Nevertheless, the existence of the intermittent separation predicted with unsteady RANS in part one of this work seems unquestionable, due to the deceleration of the flow. In our opinion, a better modelling of the decelerating boundary layer in the lee side is required to improve the results obtained using equilibrium assumptions and achieve grid convergence.     

Shear stress partitioning in large patches of roughness in the atmospheric inertial sublayer

Drag partition measurements were made in the atmospheric inertial sublayer for six roughness configurations made up of solid elements in staggered arrays of different roughness densities. The roughness was in the form of a patch within a large open area and in the shape of an equilateral triangle with 60 m long sides. Measurements were obtained of the total shear stress (τ) acting on the surfaces, the surface shear stress on the ground between the elements (τ_S) and the drag force on the elements for each roughness array. The measurements indicated that τ_S quickly reduced near the leading edge of the roughness compared with τ, and a τ_S minimum occurs at a normalized distance (x/h, where h is element height) of (downwind of the roughness leading edge is negative), then recovers to a relatively stable value. The location of the minimum appears to scale with element height and not roughness density. The force on the elements decreases exponentially with normalized downwind distance and this rate of change scales with the roughness density, with the rate of change increasing as roughness density increases. Average τ_S : τ values for the six roughness surfaces scale predictably as a function of roughness density and in accordance with a shear stress partitioning model. The shear stress partitioning model performed very well in predicting the amount of surface shear stress, given knowledge of the stated input parameters for these patches of roughness. As the shear stress partitioning relationship within the roughness appears to come into equilibrium faster for smaller roughness element sizes it would also appear the shear stress partitioning model can be applied with confidence for smaller patches of smaller roughness elements than those used in this experiment.     

A nutrient loading budget for Biscayne Bay, Florida

The water quality in Biscayne Bay has been significantly affected by past and continuing coastal and watershed development. The nutrient concentrations in the Bay have been dramatically changed by the conversion of natural creeks and sheet flow freshwater inputs to rapid and episodic canal inputs from the large and rapidly expanding Miami metropolitan area. This study is an evaluation of nutrient loadings to Biscayne Bay for 1994-2002 from canal, atmospheric, and groundwater sources. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN, as nitrate, nitrite, and ammonium) and total phosphorus (TP) loadings by the canals were influenced by their geographic locations relative to discharge amount, watershed land use, stormwater runoff, and proximity to landfills. Annual budgets showed that canals contributed the bulk of N loading to the bay as 1687.2 metric ton N yr(-1) (88% total load). Direct atmospheric DIN load for Biscayne Bay was only 231.7 ton N yr(-1), based on surface area. Of the canal DIN load, nitrate+nitrite (NO(x)(-)) loading (1294.5 ton N yr(-1)) made up a much greater proportion than that of ammonium (NH(4)(+), 392.6 ton N yr(-1)). In the urbanized north and central Bay, canal DIN load was evenly split between NO(x)(-) and NH(4)(+). However, in the south, 95% of the DIN load was in the form of NO(x)(-), reflecting the more agricultural land use. Contrary to N, canals contributed the only 66% of P load to the bay (27.5 ton P yr(-1)). Atmospheric TP load was 14 ton Pyr(-1). In the north, canal P load dominated the budget while in the south, atmospheric load was almost double canal load. Groundwater inputs, estimated only for the south Bay, represented an important source of N and P in this zone. Groundwater input of N (141 ton N yr(-1)) was about equal to atmospheric load, while P load (5.9 ton P yr(-1)) was about equal to canal load.     

三峡蓄水后典型河段分形维数的变化分析

针对三峡工程蓄水后下游河道河床表面形态的变化,采用分形维数对河床表面形态进行量化,并分析河道冲淤调整特点,对河床表面分形维数(BSD)的变化特点及物理意义进行探讨。结果表明,BSD与河床各个剖面形态之间的关系是整体与部分的关系,BSD能全面地反映床面形态的复杂程度。三峡蓄水后,宜昌-虎牙滩和宜都河段BSD明显增大,关洲河段增大幅度较小,而芦家河河段BSD值略有减小,同时,各河段BSD的变化可在一定程度上表征三峡蓄水后下游河道河床综合阻力的调整结果。可通过对各河段演变趋势的分析,来预测其BSD的变化,进而为分析其阻力和水位的变化趋势提供依据。     

用信息通讯网络平台构筑灌溉管理新模式

随着信息化、网络化的进程不断加快,信息通信技术迅速普及,其对经济社会发展形成了具大的推动力,通信网络已成为经济发展的一种战略性资源和高科技手段,利用信息产业新技术、新业务、新成果和新服务做为灌溉管理工作的一个新平台,形成一个网络型、管理型、服务型的灌溉管理新体制,在灌溉管理上可拓宽管理服务区域,加快灌溉信息的传速和反馈,达到与农户的互动,加强灌溉情况的勾通。使灌溉管理单位和农户之间的沟通和联系越来越紧密。可以促进灌溉管理流程更加简便高效,提高灌溉管理效率,减少管理工作中间环节,降低灌溉管理成本,全面提高灌溉管理服务质量。利用通讯信息网络平台来组建灌溉管理组织,通过在灌区的试运行,管理单位与农户联系迅速,灌溉及时,费用降低,作用显著,应运效果好。信息化、网络化与水利灌溉管理工作的融合。对灌溉管理乃至水利工作的全面发展将具有深远的影响,