Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.     

The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic

During the 1920s and 1930s, there was a dramatic warming of the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, reduced sea ice conditions and enhanced Atlantic inflow in northern regions continued through to the 1950s and 1960s, with the timing of the decline to colder temperatures varying with location. Ecosystem changes associated with the warm period included a general northward movement of fish. Boreal species of fish such as cod, haddock and herring expanded farther north while colder-water species such as capelin and polar cod retreated northward. The maximum recorded movement involved cod, which spread approximately 1200 km northward along West Greenland. Migration patterns of “warmer water” species also changed with earlier arrivals and later departures. New spawning sites were observed farther north for several species or stocks while for others the relative contribution from northern spawning sites increased. Some southern species of fish that were unknown in northern areas prior to the warming event became occasional, and in some cases, frequent visitors. Higher recruitment and growth led to increased biomass of important commercial species such as cod and herring in many regions of the northern North Atlantic. Benthos associated with Atlantic waters spread northward off Western Svalbard and eastward into the eastern Barents Sea. Based on increased phytoplankton and zooplankton production in several areas, it is argued that bottom-up processes were the primary cause of these changes. The warming in the 1920s and 1930s is considered to constitute the most significant regime shift experienced in the North Atlantic in the 20th century.     

How are large western hemisphere warm pools formed?

During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer.In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence.     

珠江口河流输沙、河口沉积与粒度信息之间的联系

河口三角洲地区泥沙供应充分，是现代沉积速率较高的区域。快速沉积的泥沙包含高分辨率的环境信息。采用放射性同位素测年方法研究了珠江口伶仃洋大铲湾海域6个柱样的现代沉积速率，以2mm的间隔分析了其中2个柱样上部的粒度，并对其平均粒径和珠江流域的年输沙量进行了快速傅里叶变换，以期获取河流泥沙供应、河口沉积速率和沉积物垂向粒度变化的对应关系。结果表明，大铲湾海域的沉积速率为1～3cm／a，受动力条件和泥沙供应条件的影响显著。2个柱样的平均粒径的最显著重现周期与珠江年输沙量的周期性有较好的对应关系，并可能反映了季节的、年的和多年的沉积速率信息。对于每年沉积厚度在厘米级的环境，以毫米级的高分辨率进行粒度分析，有可能揭示出沉积物供应的季节变化和年际变化。本研究亦可为其他河口的相关工作提供借鉴。     

Hydrocarbon Potential of Pre-cenozoic Strata in the North Yellow Sea Basin

The North Yellow Sea Basin ( NYSB ), which was developed on the basement of North China (Huabei) continental block, is a typical continental Mesozoic Cenozoic sedimentary basin in the sea area. Its Mesozoic basin is a residual basin, below which there is probably a larger Paleozoic sedimentary basin. The North Yellow Sea Basin comprises four sags and three uplifts. Of them, the eastern sag is a Mesozoic Cenozoic sedimentary sag in NYSB and has the biggest sediment thickness; the current Korean drilling wells are concentrated in the eastern sag. This sag is comparatively rich in oil and gas resources and thus has a relatively good petroleum prospect in the sea. The central sag has also accommodated thick Mesozoic-Cenozoic sediments. The latest research results show that there are three series of hydrocarbon source rocks in the North Yellow Sea Basin, namely, black shales of the Paleogene, Jurassic and Cretaceous. The principal hydrocarbon source rocks in NYSB are the Mesozoic black shale. According to the drilling data of Korea, the black shales of the Paleogene, Jurassic and Cretaceous have all come up to the standards of good and mature source rocks. The NYSB owns an intact system of oil generation, reservoir and capping rocks that can help hydrocarbon to form in the basin and thus it has the great potential of oil and gas. The vertical distribution of the hydrocarbon resources is mainly considered to be in the Cretaceous and then in the Jurassic.     

Simple determination of dimethylsulfide (DMS) and dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) using solid-phase microextraction and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry

Solid-phase microextraction (SPME) is a simple, sensitive and less destructive method for the determination of dimethylsulfide (DMS) in seawater. Combined with detection by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), the method had sufficient sensitivity (minimum detectable concentration of DMS was 0.05 nM), and practical levels of reproducibility (relative standard deviation ≤7%) and linearity (r ² > 0.995) over a wide concentration range (0.5 to 910 nM). The protocol developed was applied to a Sagami Bay water sample to determine concentrations of DMS and DMSP, and in situ DMSP-lyase activity.     

海水中一氧化氮的极谱法测定

本文首次采用 Nafion和 Co(salen) /Nafion修饰铂电极测定海水中的 NO,对实验条件进行了选择 ,确定了最佳实验条件 ,即反应池通氮除氧 30 min,富集时间为 4min。同时用线性扫描法对海水中的 NO进行测定 ,测得海水中 NO的浓度与氧化峰电流之间有一定线性关系。对 Nafion修饰电极而言 ,线性范围 1～ 76.9μmol/L,R2 =0 .991 6,检出限为 1 μmol/L。同时对 2种方法修饰的铂电极进行了比较 ,即当 NO浓度在 1 0 -6mol/L数量级时 2种电极基本上无差别 ,而在 1 0 -7mol/L数量级时 Co(salen) /Nafion修饰电极要明显优于 Nafion修饰电极     

太平洋波高分布及变化规律研究

使用 Topex/ Poseidon卫星高度计 1 992年 1 0月～ 1 998年 1 2月连续 75个月 ,2 30个重复周期的有效波高资料对南北太平洋的有效波高进行了统计 ,分析了太平洋有效波高的多年平均、多年各月平均和多年各季平均的空间分布特征和时间变化规律。结果表明 ,太平洋波高分布具有明显季节变化的规律 ,与太平洋的风速分布特征具有良好的对应关系     

Geodynamic Evolution of the Eastern Segment of the Azores-Gibraltar Zone: The Gorringe Bank and the Gulf of Cadiz Region

Detailed structural interpretation of the recently acquired deep seismic multichannel profiles along the Iberian Atlantic Margins (IAM Project) provides new results on the geodynamic evolution of the eastern part of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary. Thrusting and folding of the oceanic basement and of Mesozoic and Cenozoic sedimentary cover of the Gorringe Bank region are consistent with the N–S convergence of Iberia and Africa. Compressive structures in the Gorringe Bank region are spread over a wide area. Deformation under compression took place mainly in Tertiary times, as is evidenced by a basal unconformity and several discontinuities in Tertiary sediments, although some deformation has also been recorded in Quaternary sediments. The compressive structures in the Gulf of Cadiz are E–W oriented thrusts, folds and related diapiric structures. N–S oriented transpressive deformation is likely to occur in the western Portuguese platform. There is no continuity of structures from the oceanic to the continental domain, suggesting that deformation transfers from one side to the other through a transcurrent fault zone. The fault contact between the two domains is located in the ocean-continent transition zone.