Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

流形上的空间密度聚类算法研究

研究流形上的聚类分析，针对基于密度的空间聚类引入了流形概念，提出1种基于流形的密度聚类算法，该方法将流形的概念与聚类相结合，可以适用于样本为复杂分布的聚类。文中通过实例证明此算法的有效性。     

The impact of salt water inflows on the distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the deep water of the Baltic Sea

Salt-water inflows into the Baltic Sea are important events for renewing the deep and bottom waters of the deep basins of the Baltic Sea. These events occur only at irregular intervals. The last strong event was in January 1993 followed by minor inflows in winter 1993/1994. As a result of these inflows, the deep water of the central Baltic basins was completely renewed.Based on extensive observations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in water, fluffy layer material and surface sediments between 1992 and 1998, the transformation of PAHs and the modification of their distribution in the Baltic deep water is discussed in connection with the spreading of the inflowing highly saline and oxygen-rich water along its pathway from the sills into the central basins. In the course of the inflows in 1993/1994, the PAH concentration in the deep water of the different basins increased significantly. The concentrations were elevated, at least by a factor of 2 and as much as seven to eight times (for the four-ring PAHs) compared to the previous and the following years. Two hypotheses for the causes were discussed: the inflowing salt water may have entrained more highly polluted surface water in the western Baltic Sea, or it may have entrained contaminated fluffy layer material or sediment particles along the route of transport.