顾及有效角动量与IGS超快解数据的极移预报方法

极移高精度预报对卫星实时定轨、深空探测器导航等应用至关重要.本文提出了一种联合有效角动量(Effective Angular Momentum, EAM)与国际全球卫星导航系统服务组织(International GNSS Service, IGS)提供的超快解数据进行极移预报的方法.该方法基于IGS超快解数据得到的极移第1天预报值, 对引入EAM得到的极移预报结果进行校正, 获得联合预报值.首先, 基于LS(Least Squares)+AR(Auto-Regressive)模型实现了引入EAM的极移预报, 相对国际地球自转与参考系统服务组织(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的公报A数据, 在超短期(第1~10天)预报跨度可以得到更高精度的极移预报结果, 其中大气和海洋角动量发挥了主要作用.其次, 鉴于IGS超快解数据精度高、更新快的特点, 以IGS超快解为基础数据, 基于LS+AR模型可以得到极移第1天预报值, 其精度显著优于IERS公报A的极移第1天预报值.最后, 利用第1天预报值对顾及有效角动量的预报结果进行校正获得了联合预报值, 进一步提高了超短期极移预报精度(尤其是第1~5天).2020年7月24日—2022年1月30日间的联合预报结果表明: 第1~20天的预报值总体优于IERS公报A的预报值.其中, 第1~10天的预报精度显著提升, 在预报第1天, X、Y方向预报值相对公报A预报值的精度提升分别可达39.5%~62.3%和24.5%~51.9%;在预报第10天, 相对公报A预报值的精度提升分别可达28.0%~28.9%和21.9%~23.4%.

     

Observations of vertical ground accelerations exceeding gravity during the 1997 Umbria-Marche (central Italy) earthquakes

We found extensive evidence that the vertical ground accelerations produced during the largest shock (M = 6.0) of the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence exceeded 1g in two areas close to the heavily-damaged villages of Annifo and Colle Croce. This evidence comes from the striking observation of thousands of freshly fractured and broken rocks and stones in these areas. Some of the broken stones lie isolated on soft detritic soil while others had been previously piled up, probably a long time agoto clear the fields for farming. The freshness of the cuts and fractures and the consistency of the observations for thousands of rocks and stones in these areas indicate that these rocks were thrown upwards during the earthquake, with breakage occurring at the time of impact. Ground motion calculations consistent with the static deformation inferred from GPS and interferometry data, show that the broken stones and rocks are found in the zone where the strongest shaking took place during the earthquake and that most of the shaking there was vertical.     

台风海况下半潜式钻井平台动力性能监测与分析

半潜式钻井平台在海洋油气资源开发中发挥着重要作用,目前主要采用模型试验和数值模拟方法对其动力性能进行研究,非常缺乏台风等极端海况下半潜式平台动力响应的实海域监测数据。以某半潜式钻井平台为研究对象,构建了一套比较完善的平台动力性能监测系统,并对台风“杜苏芮”过境阶段的监测数据进行了分析。根据平台艏部气隙及运动监测数据推算了平台吃水及环境波高;采用随机波浪的统计分析方法,计算得到短期海况的有效波高、谱峰周期、能量谱等信息,通过与多种典型海浪谱对比发现Jonswap谱与所测波谱吻合较好;对平台的横摇、纵摇及垂荡运动进行了时域统计分析和频域谱分析,得到了台风海况下被测平台波频运动的实际响应特征,对于指导平台抗台作业具有重要意义。     

导航雷达近海回波图像丢帧内插技术研究

研究了在连续的X波段导航雷达图像序列中丢失一帧图像状态下的一种快速修复算法.该算法主要采用基于运动估计与运动补偿的视频序列修复技术进行插帧修复.具体步骤是根据雷达图像中像素点的运动特点,采用改进的三步搜索算法并结合双向运动估计进行搜索,然后对矢量场进行后续处理,最后内插出重建帧.为了提高图像修复的精度,还引入了亚像素运...     

厄尔尼诺的发生与行星运动

厄尔尼诺(El Ni(?)o)现象是海-气耦合系统异常变化的表现,其起因可能不是唯一的,行星运动对地球运动的影响可能会导致El Ni(?)o的发生。根据4个半世纪内El Ni(?)o发生的历史资料,分析其发生和行星运动的关系,得出的结论是:木星赤纬的变化和火星大冲与El Ni(?)o。的发生有显著的关系,表明这2颗行星的运动可能影响El Ni(?)o的发生。文中还根据分析结桌和El Ni(?)o混沌机制的观点,探讨了行星运动对海-气系统变化的影响机制。     

Air-sea carbon-dioxide flux estimated by eddy covariance method from a buoy observation

Precise measurements of the CO2 gas transfer across the air-sea interface provide a better understanding of the global carbon cycle.The air-sea CO2 fluxes are obtained by the eddy covariance method and the bulk method from a buoy observation in the northern Huanghai sea.The effects of buoy motion on flux calculated by the eddy covariance method are demonstrated.The research shows that a motion correction can improve the correlation coefficient between the CO2 fluxes estimated from two different levels.Without the CO2-H2 O cross-correlation correction which is termed as PKT correction,the air-sea CO2 fluxes estimated by eddy covariance method using the motion corrected data are nearly an order of magnitude larger than those estimated by the bulk method.After the CO2-H2 O cross-correlation correction,some eddy covariance CO2 fluxes indeed become closer to the bulk CO2 flux,whereas some are overcorrected which are in response to small water vapor flux.     

Study of tide prediction method influenced by nonperiodic factors based on support vector machines

Harmonic analysis, the traditional tidal forecasting method, cannot take into account the impact of noncyclical factors, and is also based on the BP neural network tidal prediction model which is easily limited by the amount of data. According to the movement of celestial bodies, and considering the insufficient tidal characteristics of historical data which are impacted by the nonperiodic weather, a tidal prediction method is designed based on support vector machine (SVM) to carry out the simulation experiment by using tidal data from Xiamen Tide Gauge, Luchaogang Tide Gauge and Weifang Tide Gauge individually. And the results show that the model satisfactorily carries out the tide prediction which is influenced by noncyclical factors. At the same time, it also proves that the proposed prediction method, which when compared with harmonic analysis method and the BP neural network method, has faster modeling speed, higher prediction precision and stronger generalization ability.     

Numerical study of sand scour with a modified Eulerian model based on incipient motion theory

Application of the standard Eulerian model to simulations of sand scour results in unrealistic phenomena. Therefore, the present work develops a modified Eulerian model based on sand incipient motion theory. The modified model is applied for simulating a two-dimensional single vertical jet and a moving planar jet. The simulation results generally demonstrate fairly good agreement with published results of scour profiles and the velocity contours of the water and sand phases. In addition, equations to describe self-similar scour profiles for the moving planar jet cases are given. The results demonstrate that the modified model efficiently and accurately simulates the two-dimensional sand scour produced by jets, particularly for the moving jet cases.     

Truss Spar平台在波流联合作用下运动响应预报方法比较

基于细长体水动力模型比较了Truss Spar平台在波流联合作用下运动响应预报的三种方法。分别采用波流耦合、速度叠加及力叠加计算Truss Spar平台在波流联合作用下的水动力载荷,根据流场水质点运动规律和Truss Spar外部形状特点,分段高效计算水动力载荷。利用Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg方法求解刚体非线性运动方程得Truss Spar在波流场中的运动响应。研究结果表明力叠加法所预报的Truss Spar纵荡和纵摇运动明显大于其他两种方法的相应运动响应预报结果,而波流耦合法与速度叠加法所预报的纵荡与纵摇运动响应幅值相当,三种方法所预报的垂荡运动响应的大小取决于具体波流参数。     

Comparison of two three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling systems for coastal tidal motion

A comparison of two three-dimensional numerical modeling systems for tidal elevations and velocities in the coastal waters is presented. The two modeling systems are: (1) the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and (2) the MIKE 3 flow model. The model performance results for Singapore's coastal waters show that the predicted tidal elevations from the two hydrodynamic modeling systems are almost identical and are in very good agreement with field measurement data. The simulated tidal current velocities match well with field measurement data at the selected stations, but it seems that the POM provides the slightly better simulation, compared to the MIKE 3 flow model. The depth profiles of the velocities obtained from the two modeling systems may be greatly different at some time, due to the vertical diffusion coefficient calculated from different turbulent sub-models in the two modeling systems. The POM generally predicts larger peak tidal velocities. The maximum speed differences for the model results from the two modeling systems occur in the top and differ from time to time and from location to location, reaching up to 20%.