石笋氧同位素和微量元素记录的陕南地区4200～2000a B.P.高分辨率季风降雨变化

基于陕南祥龙洞石笋XL2的19个230Th年龄、218个氧同位素分析以及896个Sr/Ca分析数据,高分辨率重建了4200～1972a B.P.期间陕南地区季风降雨变化.重建结果显示陕南地区这一时期季风降雨有显著的127～105a和57a周期,可能分别受控于太阳活动、PDO和/或AMO的变化.重建时段有3次百年尺度的干旱事件,分别发生于2200～2100a B.P.,2900～2700a B.P.和3600～3400a B.P.,其中2900～2700a B.P.干旱事件对应于北大西洋地区2.8ka冷事件.对比研究显示,尽管祥龙洞石笋和董哥洞石笋δ18O记录整体一致,但除了2900～ 2700aB.P.干旱事件之外,其他两次干旱事件在董哥洞石笋记录中并不明显.而尽管总体上祥龙洞和和尚洞石笋δ18O记录的差异要大,但XL2的3次干旱事件在和尚洞记录都有明显体现.有精确年代控制的祥龙洞、董哥洞及和尚洞石笋氧同位素记录的差异,揭示晚全新世我国季风降雨在十一百年尺度存在区域差异.     

水库流域体积降水量预报方法研究

根据广东飞来峡水库流域汇流特征,将全流域划分为5个支流,并采用求积仪分别计算各支流面积;然后用加权平均法计算各支流的面雨量,并将各支流面雨量对相应的支流面积进行积分,计算各支流体积降雨量;利用洪水过程飞来峡水库入库流量、出库流量和水库流域蒸发量对体积降水量预报结果进行验证,求出误差订正系数.结果表明:利用加权平均法计算的水库流域体积降水量,经过误差订正后,预报准确率可控制在90%左右,基本满足预报业务服务要求.     

“海棠”台风远距离强降水分析

对2005年"海棠"台风倒槽造成河南特大暴雨过程的湿位涡分析结果表明:倾斜涡度发展是暴雨产生和加强的重要机制之一,暴雨产生在eθ线陡立密集区内,湿位涡在这次暴雨过程中边界层内925hPa具有MPV1>0、MPV2<0的特征,此次暴雨产生在正的MPV1中心附近,有利的地形条件在一定程度上增加了降水量。     

Water Self-Softening Processes at Waterfall Sites

Many rivers in tropical and subtropical karst regions are supersaturated with respect to CaCO3 and have high water hardness. After flowing through waterfall sites, river water is usually softened, accompanied by tufa formation, which is simply described as a result of water turbulence in fast-flowing water. In this paper, a series of laboratory experiments are designed to simulate the hydrological conditions at waterfall sites. The influences of air-water interface, water flow velocity, aeration and solid-water interface on water softening are compared and evaluated on a quantitative basis. The results show that the enhanced inorganic CO2 outgassing due to sudden hydrological changes occurring at waterfall sites is the principal cause of water softening at waterfall sites. Both air-water interface area and water flow velocity increase as a result of the "aeration effect", "low pressure effect" and "jet-flow effect" at waterfall sites, which greatly accelerates CO2 outgassing and therefore makes natural w     

一种新型降水预报评分方法

在目前已有的降水评分办法的基础上，对原有办法存在的弊端进行了有效的改进，使得降水的预报评估与预报服务业务结合更紧密，也更贴近公众的感受。主要介绍了新方法的基本思路、关键技术、实现方法等。评分系统已投入业务运行，成为考核预报员业务水平的重要依据。     

Analysis of a Vortex Precipitation Event over Southwest China Using AIRS and In Situ Measurements

A strong precipitation event caused by the southwest vortex(SWV), which affected Sichuan Province and Chongqing municipality in Southwest China on 10–14 July 2012, is investigated. The SWV is examined using satellite observations from AIRS(Atmospheric Infrared Sounder), in situ measurements from the SWV intensive observation campaign, and MICAPS(Marine Interactive Computer-Aided Provisioning System) data. Analysis of this precipitation process revealed that:(1)heavy rain occurred during the development phase, and cloud water content increased significantly after the dissipation of the SWV;(2) the area with low outgoing longwave radiation values from AIRS correlated well with the SWV;(3) variation of the temperature of brightness blackbody(TBB) from AIRS reflected the evolution of the SWV, and the values of TBB reduced significantly during the SWV's development; and(4) strong temperature and water vapor inversions were noted during the development of the SWV. The moisture profile displayed large vertical variation during the SWV's puissant phase,with the moisture inversion occurring at low levels. The moisture content during the receding phase was significantly reduced compared with that during the developing and puissant phases. The vertical flux of vapor divergence explained the variation of the moisture profile. These results also indicate the potential for using AIRS products in studying severe weather over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings, where in situ measurements are sparse.     

环北京地区空气污染指数与降水的周循环特征及其影响机制分析

部分气象要素在某些地区表现出明显的周循环特征,其位相和尺度因时因地而异.利用1980～2009年环北京地区地面常规观测气象要素资料、空气污染指数资料(简称API)及NCEP/DOE再分析资料,本文分析了环北京地区API、降水及多种气象要素的周变化特征,并对气溶胶影响降水的可能机制做了初步证明.分析表明:API表现出明显...     

地形动力作用对华北暴雨和云系影响的数值研究

为了进一步研究地形对华北暴雨的影响,本文从云微物理学的角度出发,选取了2005年7月22～24日的一次华北暴雨过程为研究对象,利用中尺度数值模式ARPS,通过地形高度敏感性试验,详细讨论了地形高度变化对流场、云及降水微物理过程的影响.结果表明:地形高度变化对水平和垂直流场的大小和分布都有较大影响;地形高度增加有利于迎风坡附近水平风场辐合和垂直上升运动发展,这对云的垂直和水平发展影响都很大,尤其是对中高层云的发展影响最明显,并且能明显扩大地面降水的分布范围,地面最大降水量也有所增多.这主要是由于地形高度增加后能促进中高层云水的产生,尤其是零度层之上的过冷云水含量的增多,这大大促进了冰相粒子(雪和霰)的增多,从而使得以冷云过程为主的此次降水过程中,冰相粒子融化形成的雨水含量增多.虽然地形高度的增加会抑制云系发展前期的暖云过程,但对冷云过程有持续加强作用,而且不会明显改变云内降水的形成机制,冷云过程依然是降水的最大贡献项,总体上促进了云和降水的发展.     

一次人工增雨作业云回波个例分析

根据雷达连续观测所获取的降水回波资料,对2000年7月29日人工增雨作业前后的天气背景、雷达回波演变等特征进行分析,得到了一些有益的结论。     

中国东部植被NDVI对气温和降水的时空响应(英文)

Temporal and spatial response characteristics of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature and precipitation in the whole year,spring,summer and autumn was analyzed from April 1998 to March 2008 based on the SPOT VGT-NDVI data and daily temperature and precipitation data from 205 meteorological stations in eastern China.The results indicate that as a whole,the response of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature is more pronounced than that of precipitation in eastern China.Vegetation NDVI maxi...