变形监测基准点的稳定性检验

基准点的稳定性评价，是变形观测数据处理时不可忽视的重要内容。该文对基准点构网和不构网2种情况时的数据处理方法进行了探讨。     

青藏高原的水塔功能

青藏高原是维持我国乃至东亚地区生态系统的重要水塔。高原平均海拔在4000m以上,与周边地区形成了巨大的地势差。高原东南部不仅具有丰富的降水,而且在3500m以上以冰川雪被形态储存了巨大的水资源,因此,高原具有重要的水塔功能。基于高原潜在输出总水量和不同海拔区域水体所具有的势能两个方面,建立了高原水塔功能的模型,从而利用GIS方法,通过对我国1∶400万系列图和相关资料的统计分析,计算出高原不同高度带贮存的大气降水、冰川储水量、湖泊水量以及工农业用水量。计算结果表明,青藏高原冰川湖泊的淡水储量达39921×108m3,其中冰川储水量为39228×108m3,可利用湖泊储水量为693×108m3,平均每年由降水获得的水资源量为8495×108m3,高原工农业用水量为129×108m3。因此,高原的输出水量即出境河川径流量为6870×108m3。高原储水主要分布在海拔3000～5000m间,与高原周围相比,平均势差在2000～4000m间,最大的势差达5500m。水体具有巨大的势能,在势能的作用下,自然向周边区域输送汇集,维持着周边地区的生态过程和社会经济活动,因此,青藏高原的水塔功能对于周边地区的生态系统和社会经济系统是极其重要的。     

The diurnal and seasonal characteristics of urban heat island variation in Beijing city and surrounding areas and impact factors based on remote sensing satellite data

Based on the land surface temperature (LST), the land cover classification map,vegetation coverage, and surface evapotranspiration derived from EOS-MODIS satellite data, and by the use of GIS spatial analytic technique and multivariate statistical analysis method, the urban heat island (UHI) spatial distribution of the diurnal and seasonal variabilities and its driving forces are studied in Beijing city and surrounding areas in 2001. The relationships among UHI distribution and landcover categories, topographic factor, vegetation greenness, and surface evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results indicate that: (i) The significant UHI occur in Beijing city areas in the four seasons due to high heat capacity and multi-reflection of compression building, as well as with special topographic features of its three sides surrounded by mountains,especially in the summer. The UHI spatial distribution is corresponding with the urban geometry structure profile. The LST difference is approximately 4-6℃ between Beijing city and suburb areas, comparatively is 8- 10℃ between Beijing city area and outer suburb area in northwestern regions. (ii) The UHI distribution and intensity in daytime are different from nighttime in Beijing city area, the nighttime UHI is obvious. However, in the daytime, the significant UHI mainly appears in the summer, the autumn takes second place, and the UHI in the winter and the spring seem not obvious. The surface evapotranspiration in suburb areas is larger than that in urban areas in the summer, and high latent heat exchange is evident, which leads to LST difference between city area and suburb area. (iii) The reflection of surface landcover categories is sensitive to the UHI, the correlation between vegetation greenness and UHI shows obviously negative.The scatterplot shows that there is the negative correlation between NDVI and LST (R2 = 0.6481).The results demonstrate that the vegetation greenness is an important factor for reducing the UHI,and large-scale construction of greenbelts can considerably reduce the UHI effect.     

Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones: A Numerical Study

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone (TC) vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds. It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall, which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution. In contrast, the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall. These led to stronger boundary layer inflow, stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall, and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall. These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall, followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC. Our study demonstrates that accurate in- itialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC. Additionally, monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.     

辽宁省精细化暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与预评估

基于辽宁省61个国家气象站1961—2020年和998个区域自动气象观测站建站至2020年逐小时、逐日降水资料,分析了辽宁省暴雨洪涝灾害主要致灾因子,计算了暴雨洪涝孕灾环境指标,完成了辽宁省暴雨洪涝灾害危险性评估。结果表明：暴雨洪涝高危险性地区主要位于丹东;暴雨洪涝灾害人口高风险区主要位于沈阳和大连市区;经济高风险区主要位于大连和盘锦市区;水稻、玉米高风险区主要位于锦州、盘锦和丹东。利用辽宁省无缝隙智能网格预报数据对2022年7月28—29日的暴雨过程灾害风险进行了预评估,发现暴雨灾害危险性高值区域主要分布在朝阳、葫芦岛以及辽宁中部。暴雨灾害可能造成的人口、经济高风险区域主要位于辽宁西部和中部地区;暴雨灾害可能造成的水稻和玉米高风险区主要位于沈阳、铁岭和朝阳北部等地区。预计高风险区主要影响人口约为449万人,经济损失约为1432万元,受影响的水稻面积约为1.028万公顷、玉米面积约为1.798万公顷。通过灾后效果检验,发现预评估模型效果良好,可在实际的暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估业务中使用。     

塔里木盆地西部古岩盐地质地球化学特征与成钾条件分析

塔里木盆地是我国重要的成盐盆地,为我国最有远景的找古钾矿地区之一。本文通过多年野外实地调查和大量岩盐样品的化学分析,特别是岩盐中可以指示沉积阶段的Br×103/Cl系数等区域分布特征,联系前人研究资料,分别从构造环境、地层和岩相古地理、地球化学特征等方面进行了成钾条件分析。结果表明,莎车盆地西部喀什坳陷和库车盆地中部拜城坳陷宏观地质特征均有利于钾盐沉积;岩盐地球化学组成相对于正常海相沉积表现出明显的贫Br特征,属海陆交互相或海源陆相沉积。相比之下,莎车盆地的喀什次级坳陷是目前最有前景的找钾远景区。     

热液中铅、锌、银共生分异的热力学探讨

通过元素基本性质的对比以及热力学计算分析，探讨了热液中银、铅、锌的共生分异机制。在酸性至近中性条件下，氯配合物是它们在热液中的存在形式，其中锌氯配合物最稳定；在近中性到碱性条件下，硫氢配合物占主导地位，此时，银硫氢配合物相对最稳定。温度下降、[Cr]降低、pH升高及f(O2)降低，引起银、铅、锌配合物溶解度减小，发生沉淀分离；对于硫氢配合物，其稳定性主要受pH及还原硫浓度的影响。因此，配合物的不同存在形式以及配合物稳定性之间的差异，使得它们对热液条件的改变做出不同的响应，从而导致了热液中银、铅、锌在成矿过程中的共生分异。     

桥梁气象专题研究与服务

根据实际开展的桥梁气象专题研究，分析桥梁气象研究与服务如何面对国内大型桥梁建设发展趋势所带来的机遇和挑战，提出开展桥梁气象研究与服务的必要性，并从桥位气候背景、桥位气象参数取值、桥梁气象研究方法以及桥梁施工及营运期气象服务与保障等方面介绍桥梁气象专题研究及服务应开展的主要内容，同时，给出一个已投入实际使用的桥梁施工期气象环境监测与预警系统的建设思路。     

云南会泽超大型铅锌矿床成因研究中的几个问题

位于川-滇-黔铅锌多金属成矿域中南部云南会泽超大型铅锌矿床可能是一种新的铅锌矿床类型，该类铅锌矿床明显特征是规模大、品位富、伴生有用元素多，暗示其成矿环境较为特殊。从成矿时代、成矿物质来源、成矿流体来源与演化，以及峨眉山玄武岩与成矿的关系等方面分析了会泽超大型铅锌矿床的研究进展及国内外研究现状，认为矿床成矿时代与西南大面积峨眉山玄武岩成矿时代相近，成矿物质和成矿流体具有“多源性”，成矿流体存在均一化过程，区域大规模流体运移在该区铅锌成矿过程中具有重要意义，峨眉山玄武岩岩浆活动与铅锌成矿具有密切的成因联系，矿床可能为“均一化成矿流体贯入成矿”的产物。