A First Generation Stochastic Bioeconomic Analysis of Algal Bloom Control in a Coastal Lagoon (Sacca di Goro, Po River Delta)

Abstract. In this work we have developed a very simple stochastic mathematical model of Ulva spp. growth to quantitatively evaluate the economic costs of algal harvesting and the related benefits in terms of avoided'economic loss'of clam production due to an effective prevention of algal blooms and the consequent anoxic crises. Algal growth was simulated by means of a discrete time difference equation of Ulva biomass where the finite growth rate depends only upon water temperature. In order to explicitly include environmental variability, a seasonal autoregressive model calibrated on available data was used to simulate water temperature. Different harvesting scenarios were analysed in terms of the number of harvesting vessels employed and the threshold biomass of Ulva at which vessels start to operate. Costs of algal harvesting and disposal, as well as monetary damages resulting from the collapse of clam production as a consequence of algal blooms, were assessed by interviewing the managers of the Clam Fishermen's Union of Goro. A Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate the mean and total statistical distribution of costs and benefits of different harvesting strategies. Our analysis shows that the most cost-effective management policy is attained with 4–6 vessels operating at low algal density able to harvest as much Ulva as possible with intensive and short interventions at the beginning of the seasonal growth.     

复杂多通道带乘性噪声系统的最优固定域平滑算法

研究 1种在更弱的乘性噪声限制条件下系统的状态最优估计算法。在最优滤波算法的基础上 ,进一步给出了在线性最小方差意义下最优的固定域平滑算法。针对该算法所进行的仿真研究已表明该算法的有效性     

锋面通过台湾海峡时引起的快速成长波高推算

每年冬季因中国北方冷空气前缘东移出海南下而形成的锋面是造成台湾海峡内恶劣海况的原因之一，锋面的到临常引发快速增高的波浪，这种海况是目前作业化数值预报模式在操作上不易反映的。经验证明根据元素波模式推衍所得的面积风域法推算波浪，适合于推导季风期间海况的一种方法。本文将锋面期间风域是移动的特性结合面积风域理论，作为推算锋面抵达时推算波高的方法。本文提出加权风场内插法计算各时刻各网格点的风速，使得面积风域理论简化为在网格点上的离散计算。文中根据锋面期间实际观测数据计算波能传播速率与风能传播系数等参数，经由案例分析的结果显示这个离散化面积风域法可以合理地推算锋面期间快速成长的波高。     

霞浦No.1孔晚第四纪古气候因子的定量估算

本文使用孢粉图式、最优分割、对应分析和Q型聚类分析方法，将福建霞浦No.1孔的孢粉划分为8个孢粉组合带，并由此推论出8个植被演替阶段。依据对应分析结果和一系列热力学计算公式，本文估算了该孢粉所反映的古气候因子。它们包括年平均温度、相对温度、绝对湿度、水汽压、年蒸发量、干燥度、年降水量。并依据之些古气候因子，认为该孔孢粉反映的该地区晚第四纪古气侯有7个阶段。     

Least-Squares Estimation of Bottom Topography Using Horizontal Velocity Measurements in the Tsushima/Korea Straits

Several bathymetric data sets are compared and assessed with constraints of an ocean current model and velocity observations. The root-mean-square (rms) differences among the data sets reach 20 m in the shallow Tsushima/Korea Straits. The numerical experiments to simulate the Tsushima Warm Current are performed using four different topography data sets. The JTOPO1 data (MIRC, 2003) give the smallest rms difference to long-term horizontal velocity observations. Several least-squares combinations of the topography data sets are then sought to minimize the rms difference between the observed and modeled barotropic velocities. Most of the data sets reveal a large bias of 30–60 m at the Western Channel compared to independent sounding depths     

Near-shore swell estimation from a global wind-wave model: Spectral process,linear, and artificial neural network models

Estimation of swell conditions in coastal regions is important for a variety of public, government, and research applications. Driving a model of the near-shore wave transformation from an offshore global swell model such as NOAA WaveWatch3 is an economical means to arrive at swell size estimates at particular locations of interest. Recently, some work (e.g. Browne et al. [Browne, M., Strauss, D., Castelle, B., Blumenstein, M., Tomlinson, R., 2006. Local swell estimation and prediction from a global wind-wave model. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters 3 (4), 462–466.]) has examined an artificial neural network (ANN) based, empirical approach to wave estimation. Here, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of two data driven approaches to estimating waves near-shore (linear and ANN), and also contrast these with a more traditional spectral wave simulation model (SWAN). Performance was assessed on data gathered from a total of 17 near-shore locations, with heterogenous geography and bathymetry, around the continent of Australia over a 7 month period. It was found that the ANNs out-performed SWAN and the non-linear architecture consistently out-performed the linear method. Variability in performance and differential performance with regard to geographical location could largely be explained in terms of the underlying complexity of the local wave transformation.     

球上最小二乘问题向后误差的估计

A.N.Malyshev给出了球上最小二乘问题计算解的最佳向后扰动量表达式。从该表达式出发计算最佳向后扰动量却是很困难的。本文给出 1种有效的估算方法 ,所得结果对检验计算解的向后稳定性是有用的。并用几个简单的数值例子验证了所给算法的有效性。     

Estimation of boundary values in a North Atlantic circulation model using an adjoint method

A 1° × 1° resolution version of the MIT-GCM in the North Atlantic is used to test whether open-boundary conditions can be constrained by observations inside the domain using an adjoint method. In this preliminary feasibility study, the model is run during 1993 with a simplified vertical mixing physics. It is constrained by monthly SST fields, monthly climatological θ, S fields and TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry. The adjoint model is built using automatic differentiation software. The method aims at bringing the model’s trajectory to consistency with data, by adjusting the initial θ, S fields, the time-varying atmospheric forcing fields and the time-varying open-boundary values. An originality of the work is the ‘nested approach’, which uses optimized fields from a global, coarser resolution model for the open-boundary conditions and for the prior estimates of the surface conditions adjustments. A solution is obtained after 75 iterations. This study shows that significant changes can be obtained on the open-boundary values, and that a general improvement in the circulation is achieved in the constrained solution, mainly in the Gulf Stream and equatorial regions. Changes at the open boundaries are characterized by a large temporal variability and small spatial scales. Large local adjustments are found close to the bottom and are likely unrealistic. There, the method tends to compensate for some model’s deficiencies by computing large corrections on the open-boundary values. The analysis of the cost function gradients with respect to the controls allows us to explore the local consistency between the constraints from the different data sets. This study suggests that no fundamental difficulty emerges when constraining open-boundary values. Its extension to a longer run with complete mixing physics can be envisaged.