Inverse methods for subsurface flow: A critical review of stochastic techniques

The development of stochastic methods for groundwater flow representation has undergone enormous expansion in recent years. The calibration of groundwater models, the inverse problem, has lately received comparable attention especially and almost exclusively from the stochastic perspective. In this review we trace the evolution of the methods to date with a specific view toward identifying the most important issues involved in the usefulness of the approaches. The methods are critiqued regarding practical usefulness, and future directions for requisite study are discussed.     

基于水位流量关系的流量估算不确定性分析

针对现有水位流量关系线型物理机制不强及流量估算不确定性来源考虑不充分问题,以北江流域石角水文站为例,推导该测站水位流量关系,基于BaRatin模型评估流量测量误差及率定样本选取对估算流量不确定性的影响。发现河槽控制宽浅矩形断面水位流量关系为幂函数,其系数可用糙率、河宽、比降表达,指数为定值5/3;考虑流量测量误差后高水估算流量总不确定性减小32%;率定数据增加1倍、3倍,高水估算流量总不确定性减小12%、34%。结果表明:① 水位流量关系模型建立方法可推广至多类型测站;② 高水测量误差对率定精度影响较大,建议提高高水流量测量精度;③ 现有实测水位与流量数据存在信息冗余,主要存在于低水数据中,本方法可减少率定数据使用,降低整编成本。     

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.     

基于UTM-30LX的旋翼无人机定位检测系统设计

为了确定旋翼无人机的位置信息,设计了一种采用激光雷达UTM-30LX来获取无人机定位信息的检测系统。该系统采用了激光雷达作为机载传感器获取无人机的周围环境数据,并使用了树莓派2代B型开发板来处理相关数据和控制检测系统。系统软件设计方面,采用C语言和MATLAB语言进行数据预处理、坐标投影变换、位移估计和定位。此外,阐述了定位信息检测的原理、检测系统的硬件电路设计方案和系统软件设计方案等。最后的实验数据表明,设计方案能够满足获取无人机位置信息的需求。     

基于遥感信息的新安江水文模型参数推求方法——以老灌河流域为例

我国水文气象站少且空间分布不均衡,水文模型参数难以获取极大限制了其在防洪预警中的应用。针对新安江水文模型在无水文资料地区应用的局限性,本文提出了一种基于遥感信息的新安江模型参数推求方法,实现了可率定的模型参数的推求:利用土壤特性与土地覆被遥感信息推求流域张力水蓄水容量;基于流域土地覆被遥感信息提取不透水面积比;利用流域土壤特性及叶面积指数遥感影像间接推算流域自由水蓄水容量。利用本文方法推求了老灌河流域新安江水文模型参数并进行了日径流模拟,实验结果表明,流域水文模拟中利用遥感信息推求出的模型参数的准确性可以达到80%以上。     

准噶尔盆地莫索湾地区清水河组成藏特征及模式

准噶尔盆地莫索湾地区位于中央坳陷莫索湾凸起上,紧邻盆地的主要生排烃凹陷,成藏条件优越。白垩系清水河组具有良好油气显示,盆参2井试油荻油流,该区为清水河组高效油藏勘探新领域。运用地质、工程、地震一体化研究技术,对莫索湾地区清水河组油藏类型、主控因素、成藏特征以及成藏模式进行了分析。莫索湾地区构造位置有利,深层油源断裂和浅层运移断裂发育且匹配良好,油藏类型为"泥包砂"型高效岩性油藏;同时,广泛发育水进型滨浅湖退积滩坝砂体,储层质量优良,物性随埋深增加变好。油气藏符合烃源灶+断裂泵+岩性体的"三位一体"成藏总模式,烃源灶是起点和油源,断裂泵是动力和通道,岩性体是载体和圈闭,三者共同控制了清水河组油气的生成、运移、聚集和成藏以及油气藏的类型和分布。     

SPATIO-TEMPORAL VARIATION OF SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX OVER SOUTHERN CHINA

The spatio-temporal variation of surface sensible heat flux (SHF) in southern China (SC) is studied based on the data evaluated from conventional observational meteorological data. There exist prominent increasing trends in all seasonal surface sensible heat fluxes in the western SC and decreasing trends in the central-eastern part of southern China. The variations of surface sensible heat flux in all seasons are dominant on interannual time-scales. The land-air temperature difference and the near-surface wind speed are two key factors for the interannual variations of SHF, but the former is more important. The first two major anomalous patterns of SHF are presented as the region-wide in-phase anomalies and the east-west dipole anomalies, respectively, based on the EOF analysis results.     

鄂尔多斯盆地东部二叠系山西组页岩气成藏条件与有利区筛选

鄂尔多斯盆地东部榆106井区山西组页岩沉积在三角洲平原分流河道间沼泽、天然堤、决口扇远端与洼地环境。根据有机地球化学、物性、含气性、岩性实验分析,结合钻井、录井、测井资料与沉积相研究,开展了该区山西组页岩气成藏条件与有利区分布研究。山西组页岩有机碳含量较高,山二段平均5.28%,山一段平均3.02%,有机质类型以Ⅱ_2、Ⅲ型干酪根为主,有机质成熟度较高,R_o平均1.89%,生气条件优越。页岩孔隙度平均1.7%,渗透率平均0.0415×10~(-3)μm~2,平均含气量0.64 m~3/t,页岩单层厚度小,垂向上普遍与致密砂岩、煤层组成互层,累计厚度较大(平均达75 m),页岩渗透性较好而储集性能稍差。页岩脆性矿物含量平均49.9%,黏土矿物含量平均50.1%,黏土矿物含量较高,资源丰度普遍较低,但是页岩埋深小于3000 m,试气产能较高(0.64×10~4m~3/d),商业开发潜力较好。山二段有机质含量比山一段更高,含气性比山一段更好。主要基于页岩厚度与沉积相展布预测的山二段页岩气有利区呈北东向、南北向条带状展布,受分流河道间沼泽微相的控制。     

Dinosaur eggshell assemblage from Japan reveals unknown diversity of small theropods

The Lower Cretaceous (Albian) Sasayama Group in the Hyogo Prefecture of southwestern Japan has yielded various vertebrate fossils, including skeletal remains of dinosaurs, anurans, lizards, and mammals, and recently eggshell fragments. Here we report on numerous fossil eggshells from the bone-bearing Kamitaki locality in Tamba City, which represents a diverse dinosaur eggshell assemblage. Of the more than 90 eggshell fragments recovered, five different types were identified, including eggshells that likely belong to a variety of theropods (Nipponoolithus ramosus oogen. et oosp. nov., Elongatoolithus sp., Prismatoolithus sp., and Prismatoolithidae indet.) and at least one ornithopod (Spheroolithus sp.). All eggshells are relatively thin, and a new derived estimation method correlating egg mass with eggshell thickness indicates that they are among the smallest (28–135 g) theropod eggs known, likely laid by small bodied forms. The eggshell assemblage from this locality suggests that a diverse small dinosaur fauna, consisting primarily of theropods, nested in the region, a diversity yet to be evidenced from skeletal remains in Japan.     

基于GPU的并行条件模拟算法及其在储量估算中的应用

条件模拟是一种计算非常耗时的高精度三维插值算法。针对串行条件模拟算法计算时间过长的问题,提出基于GPU的并行条件模拟算法,并进行储量估算。对条件模拟算法进行并行分析,利用GPU的高度并行性,构建CUDA通用计算开发环境,实现串行条件模拟算法到并行条件模拟算法的转换,使条件模拟算法的时间复杂度从O(n)降至O(logn)。并对西藏甲玛铜矿进行了储量估算。实验结果表明,在安装普通NVIDIA显卡的计算机以及估算精度不下降的情况下,GPU并行条件模拟的计算效率比CPU串行条件模拟的计算效率提高了60倍以上。