Reindeer Herders Without Reindeer. The Challenges of Joint Knowledge Production on Kolguev Island in the Russian Arctic

Kolguev Island in the Russian Arctic has a unique tundra ecosystem and an indigenous Nenets population whose livelihood is traditionally based on reindeer herding. The Nenets faced a major crisis in 2013–2014 when the reindeer population collapsed. Widely different explanations for this collapse were put forward. This lack of a shared perspective points at the failure of genuine joint knowledge production (JKP) in the island’s UNEP–GEF’s ECORA project (2004–2009). The ECORA project aimed to achieve integrated ecosystem management by stimulating dialog and mutual learning among indigenous people, state agencies, and scientists. This paper analyses the failure of ECORA’s JKP, using a recently developed framework of conditions for successful JKP. The results suggest that ECORA met none of these conditions. It failed at bringing the scientific and indigenous knowledge systems together, and the produced knowledge did not resonate with indigenous people’s perception of living in Kolguev.     

基于卫星观测的辽东湾冰情统计分析

根据渤海6个海洋站的海冰监测及气温观测数据统计,终冰日及冰期可用来表征当年渤海冰情严重程度,在大多数年份冰情与终冰日早晚和冰期长短呈负相关。根据2006/2016年的辽东湾海冰面积及外缘线资料,分析了11年间辽东湾冰情的年变化特征,分析结果显示,辽东湾海冰受局地气温影响明显,两者呈较显著的负相关关系。分析结果发现,辽东湾海冰年际变化除受局地气候的影响外,还受太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)、极涡、东亚槽和欧亚环流等气候因子的共同调控,其中受太平洋副高北界位置指数、极涡面积指数、东亚槽强度指数、欧亚纬向环流指数影响最为显著,可作为辽东湾海冰预测的重要因子,此外北极海冰密集度也可以为预测当年冬季辽东湾每月冰情提供依据。     

南北极海冰变化及其影响因素的对比分析

海冰是海洋-大气交互系统的重要组成部分,与全球气候系统间存在灵敏的响应和反馈机制。本文选用欧洲空间局发布的1992—2008年海冰密集度数据分析了南北极海冰在时间和空间上的变化规律与趋势,并结合由美国环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)和美国大气研究中心(National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR)联合制作的NCEP/NCAR气温数据和ENSO指数探讨了南北极海冰变化的影响因素。结果表明,北极海冰面积呈明显的减少趋势,其中夏季海冰最小月的减少更快。北冰洋中央海盆区、巴伦支海、喀拉海、巴芬湾和拉布拉多海的减少最明显。南极海冰面积呈微弱增加趋势,罗斯海、太平洋扇区和大西洋扇区的海冰增加。北极海冰面积与气温有显著的滞后1个月的负相关关系(P0.01)。北极升温显著,北冰洋中央海盆区、喀拉海、巴伦支海、巴芬湾和楚科奇海升温趋势最大,海冰减少很明显。南极在南大西洋、南太平洋呈降温趋势,海冰增加。北极海冰减少与39个月之后ONI的下降、40个月之后SOI的上升密切相关;南极海冰增加与7个月之后ONI的下降、6个月之后SOI的上升存在很好的响应关系。南北极海冰变化与三次ENSO的强暖与强冷事件有很好的对应关系。     

Discrimination of different sea ice types from CryoSat-2 satellite data using an Object-based Random Forest (ORF)

Abstract

Sea ice type is one of the most sensitive variables in Arctic sea ice monitoring, and it is important for the retrieval of ice thickness. In this study, we analyzed various waveform features that characterize the echo waveform shape and Sigma0 (i.e., backscatter coefficient) of CryoSat-2 synthetic aperture radar altimeter data over different sea ice types. Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute operational ice charts were input as reference. An object-based random forest (ORF) classification method is proposed with overall classification accuracy of 90.1%. Accuracy of 92.7% was achieved for first-year ice (FYI), which is the domain ice type in the Arctic. Accuracy of 76.7% was achieved at the border of FYI and multiyear ice (MYI), which is better than current state-of-the-art methods. Accuracy of 83.8% was achieved for MYI. Results showed the overall accuracy of the ORF method was increased by ～8% in comparison with other methods, and the classification accuracy at the border of FYI and MYI was increased by ～10.5%. Nevertheless, ORF classification performance might be influenced by the selected waveform features, snow loading, and the ability to distinguish sea ice from leads.     

基于高效统计模型预测9月北极航道沿线海冰范围

The rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness not only has a linkage with extreme weather in the midlatitudes but also brings more opportunities for Arctic shipping routes and polar resource exploration, both of which motivate us to further understand causes of sea-ice variations and to obtain more accurate estimates of seaice cover in the future. Here, a novel data-driven method, the causal effect networks algorithm, is applied to identify the direct precursors of September sea-ice extent covering the Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route at different lead times so that statistical models can be constructed for sea-ice prediction. The whole study area was also divided into two parts: the northern region covered by multiyear ice and the southern region covered by seasonal ice. The forecast models of September sea-ice extent in the whole study area(TSIE) and southern region(SSIE) at lead times of 1–4 months can explain over 65% and 79% of the variances, respectively,but the forecast skill of sea-ice extent in the northern region(NSIE) is limited at a lead time of 1 month. At lead times of 1–4 months, local sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness have a larger influence on September TSIE and SSIE than other teleconnection factors. When the lead time is more than 4 months, the surface meridional wind anomaly from northern Europe in the preceding autumn or early winter is dominant for September TSIE variations but is comparable to thermodynamic factors for NSIE and SSIE. We suggest that this study provides a complementary approach for predicting regional sea ice and is helpful in evaluating and improving climate models.     

Difference of planktonic ciliate communities of the tropical West Pacific, the Bering Sea and the Arctic Ocean

Ciliates are important components in planktonic food webs,but our understanding of their community structures in different oceanic water masses is limited.We report pelagic ciliate community characteristics in three seas:the tropical West Pacific,the Bering Sea and the Arctic Ocean.Planktonic ciliate abundance had"bimodal-peak","surface-peak"and"DCM(deep chlorophyll a maximum layer)-peak"vertical distribution patterns in the tropical West Pacific,the Bering Sea and the Arctic Ocean,respectively.The abundance proportion of tintinnid to total ciliate in the Bering Sea(42.6%)was higher than both the tropical West Pacific(7.8%)and the Arctic Ocean(2.0%).The abundance proportion of small aloricate ciliates(10–20μm size-fraction)in the tropical West Pacific was highest in these three seas.The Arctic Ocean had higher abundance proportion of tintinnids in larger LOD(lorica oral diameter)size-class.Proportion of redundant species increased from the Arctic Ocean to the tropical West Pacific.Our result provided useful data to further understand ecology roles of planktonic ciliates in different marine habitats.     

三种国际主流的北极卫星遥感冰速产品评估和分析

冰速是海冰的重要参数,但是受资料长度限制,对卫星遥感冰速产品进行系统比较和评估的研究还较少。利用2009年—2017年国际北极浮标计划（IABP）浮标冰速数据,较系统地评估了不同时间间隔的遥感反演冰速产品在北冰洋内区和弗拉姆海峡附近海区的表现。结果显示,对北冰洋内区而言,1 d间隔的美国国家雪冰数据中心（NSIDC）遥感冰速冬季误差整体大于夏季,冬季高估了波弗特海南部海冰向西的运动,低估了从喀拉海流向格陵兰岛北部的穿极流。对于5种2 d间隔冰速产品而言,产品精度不完全取决于源数据空间分辨率的高低,反演算法的改进和数据融合均能提高冰速的精度,均方根误差大小的顺序是OSISAF-Merged <OSISAF-AMSR <Ifremer-AMSR <OSISAF-SSM < OSISAF-ASCAT。对于4种使用相同反演算法的3 d间隔的冰速产品,产品的均方根误差取决于源数据分辨率,空间分辨率最高的Ifremer-AMSR冰速均方根误差最小。比较不同种类、不同时间间隔冰速的月平均均方根误差后可知,采用3 d间隔反演的冰速由于能够忽略更多短时间尺度海冰运动,其冰速均方根误差低于2 d间隔的冰速。在弗拉姆海峡,除Ifremer-AMSR外,其余冰速产品均具有较大的经向偏差和均方根误差。在冰速较快弗拉姆海峡,冰速产品均方根误差取决于源数据的分辨率。     

北冰洋公海渔业权益争端的博弈分析——基于环北极国家视角

北冰洋公海尚处于冰封状态,但气候变暖、海冰加速融化使未来公海出现新渔场成为可能,其战略价值因而得到国际关注。当前,环北极国家已率先展开渔业权益争夺。为分析北冰洋公海渔业事务的国际走势,文章基于博弈论思想,构建非对称懦夫博弈模型及古诺模型来模拟和探究环北极国家在渔业利益争夺中的合作或冲突行为,研究得出:现阶段北冰洋公海渔业权益争端主要表现为渔业管理权的争夺,在该博弈中,非北冰洋沿岸国采取退让策略,沿岸国采取进攻策略,可以达到进化稳定均衡;一旦公海具备捕鱼条件,争端将演化为开发模式选择的博弈,此时,北冰洋沿岸国采取合作开发策略可以有效保护公海渔业资源,并实现国家的长期利益。     

基于CryoSat-2数据的2010-2017年北极海冰厚度和体积的季节与年际变化特征

北极海冰变化影响着全球物质平衡、能量交换和气候变化。本文基于CryoSat-2测高数据和OSI SAF海冰密集度及海冰类型产品,分析了2010-2017年北极海冰面积、厚度和体积的季节和年际变化特征,结合NCEP再分析资料探讨了融冰期北极气温异常和夏季风异常对海冰变化的影响。结果表明,结冰期海冰面积的增加量波动较大,海冰厚度的增加量呈明显下降趋势。融冰期海冰厚度的减小量波动较大,2013年以后融冰期海冰面积的减小量逐年增加。海冰体积的变化趋势和面积变化更相似,融冰期的减小速率大于结冰期的增加速率。融冰期北极海表面大气温度异常与海冰融化量正相关。夏季风影响海冰的辐合和辐散,在弗拉姆海峡海冰的输运过程中起关键作用,促进了北冰洋表层水向大洋深层的传输。     

北极王湾表层沉积物中的粘土矿物及其对物源与古环境变化的指示意义

Kongsfjorden is a typical fjord on the edge of the ice cap of the Arctic Svalbard-Barents Sea. Its inner bay is connected with a modern glacier front along the direction of the fjord axis with a significant gradient change in the parameters of hydrology, sedimentation, and biology. In summer, ice and snow melt-water and floating ice collapse continuously and thus transport the weathering products on the surrounding land into the sea. Thus Kongsfjorden is regards as a natural laboratory for the study of unique sedimentation in polar fjords under modern glacial-sea water conditions. In this study, fifty-two surface sediments were collected in Kongsfjorden for clay mineral analysis to study the sediment source and sediment-transport process. Our results indicate that clay minerals in the surface sediments from Kongsfjorden are mainly composed of illite, chlorite, and kaolinite, and no smectite is found. Rocks from different periods exposed extensively in the surrounding areas of Kongsfjorden provide an important material basis for clay minerals in the Kongsfjorden. Kaolinite may be mainly derived from the fluvial deposits, weathered from reddish sandstones and conglomerates during the Carboniferous Period.Illite is mainly derived from Proterozoic low-grade and medium-grade metamorphic phyllite, mica schist, and gneiss. While chlorite is mainly from Proterozoic low-grade metamorphic phyllite and mica schist. In the direction from the fluvio-glacial estuary to the sea of the glacier front of Kongsfjorden, illite increase gradually,and the content of kaolinite declines gradually. However, the change pattern of chlorite is insignificant, which may be related to the provenance. Kongsfjorden detritus is mainly transported by the fluvio-glacial streams and icebergs into the sea and deposited in the inner bay. Coarse sediments are rapidly deposited in the glacier front,estuary, and near-shore areas. Clay fraction begins to deposit significantly by 200–400 m after flowing into the sea,which due to the crystal behavior of clay minerals, hydrodynamic condition and flocculation. Kaolinite and chlorite on the south of the bay near the Blomstrandhalv?ya Island is mainly affected by ice-rafted detritus and thus can reveal the trajectory of transportation by the floating ice while entering the sea.