北极海冰消融情景下环北极国家利益争端的动态博弈建模技术

以气温升高为主要特征的全球气候变化,致使北极海冰持续融化,北极地区丰富的资源、便捷的航行通道、重要的战略地位以及军事价值逐渐凸显出来。北冰洋沿岸的美国、俄罗斯、加拿大、丹麦和挪威等国家纷纷加入到北极利益争夺的行列中。为模拟和评估环北极国家在利益追逐中的合作与冲突行为的演化,基于博弈论思想,构建了环北极五国博弈的动态争端模型,提出了物质收益、惩罚损失和名誉收益等三个机制,综合考虑了气候变化、物质收益、国家关系与国家威望、国际法律法规等因素对环北极五国行为的综合影响。针对当前环北极各国在北极问题上的合作与争端开展了动态博弈建模,并对北极海冰完全消融情景时环北极各国在多种不同合作模式下的争端情况进行了模拟预估与实验仿真。     

北极科学考察法律制度探析

北极在气候、资源、航道、科考等诸多领域对我国有着重要的现实和潜在价值,科考活动在资源争夺上的工具价值更是独一无二,同时,科考作为低敏感领域的活动也最容易开展合作。《联合国海洋法公约》和《斯匹次卑尔根群岛条约》是目前北极科考活动主要的法律规范。作为发展中大国,中国既有对北极科考的法律依据又有雄厚的科研实力。北极科考活动的拓展关涉中国在北极航道、渔业、投资等领域重要的国家利益,也有利于我国未来在北极事务中占有一席之地。因此,我国应进一步加大北极科考活动力度,参与北极科考活动法律规范的制定,进而提升我国在北极事务中的参与权和发言权。     

New evidence from the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago for the resubmergence of Bering Strait

Widespread molluscan samples were collected from raised marine sediments to date the last retreat of the NW Laurentide Ice Sheet from the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago. At the head of Mercy Bay, northern Banks Island, deglacial mud at the modern coast contains Hiatella arctica and Portlandia arctica bivalves, as well as Cyrtodaria kurriana, previously unreported for this area. Multiple H. arctica and C. kurriana valves from this site yield a mean age of 11.5 ¹⁴C ka BP (with 740 yr marine reservoir correction). The occurrence of C. kurriana, a low Arctic taxon, raises questions concerning its origin, because evidence is currently lacking for a molluscan refugium in the Arctic Ocean during the last glacial maximum. Elsewhere, the oldest late glacial age available on C. kurriana comes from the Laptev Sea where it is < 10.3 ¹⁴C ka BP and attributed to a North Atlantic source. This is 2000 cal yr younger than the Mercy Bay samples reported here, making the Laptev Sea, ~ 3000 km to the west, an unlikely source. An alternate route from the North Atlantic into the Canadian Arctic Archipelago was precluded by coalescent Laurentide, Innuitian and Greenland ice east of Banks Island until ~ 10 ¹⁴C ka BP. We conclude that the presence of C. kurriana on northern Banks Island records migration from the North Pacific. This requires the resubmergence of Bering Strait by 11.5 ¹⁴C ka BP, extending previous age determinations on the reconnection of the Pacific and Arctic oceans by up to 1000 yr. This renewed ingress of Pacific water likely played an important role in re-establishing Arctic Ocean surface currents, including the evacuation of thick multi-year sea ice into the North Atlantic prior to the Younger Dryas geochron.     

Remarkable Link between Projected Uncertainties of Arctic Sea-Ice Decline and Winter Eurasian Climate

We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter(December–March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition(SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure(SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals–Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell,where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic.In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern.Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.     

Role of Extratropical Cyclones in the Recently Observed Increase in Poleward Moisture Transport into the Arctic Ocean

Poleward atmospheric moisture transport(AMT) into the Arctic Ocean can change atmospheric moisture or water vapor content and cause cloud formation and redistribution, which may change downward longwave radiation and, in turn, surface energy budgets, air temperatures, and sea-ice production and melt. In this study, we found a consistently enhanced poleward AMT across 60?N since 1959 based on the NCAR–NCEP reanalysis. Regional analysis demonstrates that the poleward AMT predominantly occurs over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions, contributing about 57% and 32%, respectively, to the total transport. To improve our understanding of the driving force for this enhanced poleward AMT, we explored the role that extratropical cyclone activity may play. Climatologically, about 207 extratropical cyclones move across 60?N into the Arctic Ocean each year, among which about 66(32% of the total) and 47(23%) originate from the North Atlantic and North Pacific Ocean, respectively. When analyzing the linear trends of the time series constructed by using a 20-year running window, we found a positive correlation of 0.70 between poleward yearly AMT and the integrated cyclone activity index(measurement of cyclone intensity, number, and duration). This shows the consistent multidecadal changes between these two parameters and may suggest cyclone activity plays a driving role in the enhanced poleward AMT. Furthermore, a composite analysis indicates that intensification and poleward extension of the Icelandic low and accompanying strengthened cyclone activity play an important role in enhancing poleward AMT over the North Atlantic region.     

北极海冰及其与气象要素年际关系的年代际变化

利用Hadley海冰密集度资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了北极海冰融冰量及其与大气变量年际关系的年代际变化。结果表明,北极海冰存在显著的年代际变化,且有较强的区域性。东西伯利亚海和波弗特海海冰融冰量的平均值变大且方差增大,格陵兰岛以东洋面海冰融冰量的量值和变率均在减弱。对3个不同气候时段内北极海冰融冰量进行EOF分解,前两个模态均在3个气候时段发生显著的年代际变化,东西伯利亚海海冰融冰量的增加与EOF第一模态年代际变化相关,而EOF第二模态则明显造成了波弗特海海冰的年代际消融。并且,与之相应的大气环流也出现了明显的年代际变化,它们与AO/NAO的年际关系也存在年代际转折,融冰量第二模态与AO的年际关系更为紧密,1960—1990年第二模态与AO的相关系数仅为0.186,而1980—2010年相关系数已升高至0.367。整个北冰洋的海冰融冰量与AO的年际关系也出现了年代际增强,尤其是东西伯利亚地区海冰融冰量与AO的年际关系发生了年代际增强,1980—2010年两者相关达到了0.4以上。而波弗特海融冰量与AO相关系数变化较大,1960—1990年其的相关系数高达-0.488,1980年后却减少至0.161。然而AO却未发生明显的年代际变化。造成北极海冰融冰量及其与大气变量年际关系发生年代际变化的主要因子之一是波弗特高压,其年代际减弱使得极区向东西伯利亚海和波弗特海的海冰输送减弱,导致这两个区域海冰减少,使得AO与北极海冰的年际关系发生了年代际转折。     

极地微陨石的收集、研究与设想

微陨石对于人类研究地外环境和太阳系的演化而言,具有极其重要的意义。20世纪40年代开始,微陨石的收集便成了国际上的热点。尤其是80年代后,通过在南北两极开展微陨石收集,产出了大量的科学成果。我国的微陨石研究主要集中在20世纪80—90年代,而后便处于停滞的状态。本文简要介绍了各国在极地微陨石方面取得的成果,基于我国陨石和微陨石的研究现状,对我国开展极地微陨石研究提出了几点设想和规划。     

极地航空重力测量及其应用进展

在论述航空重力测量技术在目前重力场信息获取中不可替代性的基础上,回顾并简述了国际、国内航空重力测量技术的发展历史,介绍了航空重力测量的基本原理,总结了航空重力测量技术在极地航空地球物理勘探任务中的应用。指出航空重力测量技术是目前唯一兼顾高精度高分辨率并且能覆盖全南极区域的观测手段,在完善南极地区全球重力场模型、研究南极地区地质构造、质量变化等任务中起着非常重要的作用。     

从2011/2012和2015/2016年冬季大气环流异常看北极海冰以及前期夏季北极大气环流异常的作用

利用美国NCEP/NCAR、欧洲中心ERA-Interim再分析资料,以及英国哈得来中心海冰密集度资料,通过诊断分析和数值模拟试验,研究了2011/2012和2015/2016年两个冬季大气环流异常的主要特征和可能原因。结果表明,尽管热带太平洋海温背景截然不同（分别为弱的拉尼娜事件和强厄尔尼诺事件）,但这两个冬季西伯利亚高压均异常偏强,自1979年以来其强度分别排第1和第5位。前期秋季北极海冰异常偏少是导致这两个冬季西伯利亚高压偏强的主要原因。更为重要的是,前期夏季北冰洋表面反气旋风场,以及其上空对流层中、低层平均气温偏高,加强了北极海冰偏少对冬季大气变率的负反馈,进一步促进了西伯利亚高压的加强,从而有利于东亚地区冬季阶段性强严寒的出现。因此,夏季北极大气环流的动力和热力状态不仅影响夏、秋季北极海冰,而且对海冰偏少影响亚洲冬季气候变率有重要调节作用。2015/2016年冬季强厄尔尼诺事件并不能掩盖来自北极海冰和大气环流的影响。      

通过焦磷酸测序揭示北极海水的微生物群落结构

This study aimed to determine the microbial community structure of seawater in(ICE-1) and out(FUBIAO) of the pack ice zone in the Arctic region.Approximate 10 L seawater was filtrated by 0.2 μm Whatman nuclepore filters and the environmental genomic DNA was extracted.We conducted a detailed census of microbial communities by pyrosequencing.Analysis of the microbial community structures indicated that these two samples had high bacterial,archaeal and eukaryotic diversity.Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes were the two dominant members of the bacterioplankton community in both samples,and their relative abundance were 51.29% and 35.39%,72.95%and 23.21%,respectively.Euryarchaeota was the most abundant archaeal phylum,and the relative abundance was nearly up to 100% in FUBIAO and 60% in ICE-1.As for the eukaryotes,no_rank_Eukaryota,Arthropoda and no_rank_Metazoa were the most abundant groups in Sample FUBIAO,accounting for 85.29% of the total reads.The relative abundance of the most abundant phylum in Sample ICE-1,no_rank_Eukaryota and no_rank_Metazoa,was up to 90.69% of the total reads.Alphaproteobacteria,Flavobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria were the top three abundant classes in the two samples at the bacterial class level.There were also differences in the top ten abundant bacterial,archaeal and eukaryotic OTUs at the level of 97% similarity between the two samples.