大气、海洋与固体地球的能量交换

通过对南极气温资料、南极臭氧资料、环南极海冰资料、太平洋海温资料、地球自转速度变化资料、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜资料的模拟验证，发现厄尔尼诺事件发生与德雷克海峡海冰减少在时间上有一一对应关系。南极半岛海冰减少是太平洋环流速度减慢的原因，德雷克海峡的海冰起重要作用。大气、海洋与固体地球的角动量交换在南、北半球有不同的形式。强震起源于海平面振荡。     

DIAGNOSTIC PREDICTIONS OF SST IN THE EQUATORIAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BASED ON FUZZY INFERRING AND WAVELET DECOMPOSITION

Methods and approaches are discussed that identify and filter off affecting factors (noise) above primary signals,based on the Adaptive-Nework-Based Fuzzy Inference System. Influences of the zonal winds in equatorial eastern and middle/western Pacific on the SSTA in the equatorial region and their contribution to the latter are diagnosed and verified with observations of a number of significant El Nino and La Nina episodes. New viewpoints are propsed. The methods of wavelet decomposition and reconstruction are used to build a predictive model based on independent domains of frequency,which shows some advantages in composite prediction and prediction validity.The methods presented above are of non-linearity, error-allowing and auto-adaptive/learning, in addition to rapid and easy access,illustrative and quantitative presentation,and analyzed results that agree generally with facts. They are useful in diagnosing and predicting the El Nino and La Nina problems that are just roughly described in dynamics.     

地下水动态多年周期与中强震多发期

地下水动态的短期变化特征已有很深入的研究,本文根据唐山地区6口井1982年－2001年9月的水位动态变化月均值资料探讨地下水的长期变化特征。初步研究表明，从多年较大空间的地下水动态变化看，可视为较平衡的随机过程，存在着10年左右的周期结构，这种周期结构与地质构造环境、水文地质环境、地理地貌、观测层位、补给和排泄条件以及观测井结构关系不密切，这种现象可能与复杂的全息天体运动有关，是一种多种周期的叠加，是一种合力作用，代表着区域应力场。     

热带西太平洋对风应力的斜压响应

发展了一个线性热带西太平洋两层模式,分别为混合层和温跃层,其密度、温度各不相同.利用这一模式分析了热带西太平洋对纬圈风应力的响应,求出西边界的解,以及解析地求得热带西太平洋温跃层厚度、洋流及海温分布.结果表明,热带西太平洋物理量的变异在El Nino/La Nina事件中起着重要作用,在温跃层中海温变化的振幅明显大于混合层,这从理论上支持了近年来的观测事实.     

2001年发生厄尔尼诺事件的天文条件

据 2 0 0 1年 8月 2 3日《长春晚报》报道 ,最近上海天文台预测 ,厄尔尼诺事件将在今年年末发生 .笔者在1999年就曾预报 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 0 1年将发生厄尔尼诺事件 ,并在 2 0 0 1年进一步预测其发生时间在 2 0 0 1年末[1～ 3 ] .当太阳、地球和月球大致成一线 ,月球处于近地点 ,地球处于春分、秋分或近日点 ,地球扁率发生最大变化 ,是发生厄尔尼诺事件的天文条件 .行星冲日 ,亦称为特殊天象组合期 ,地球自转异常减慢[2～ 8] ,会对厄尔尼诺事件的发生起强化作用 .关于潮汐对地球气候影响的研究在近年来取得了令人瞩目的成果 .地壳、地幔排液排…     

PROGNOSTICATION AND INVESTIGATION OF EL NI?O EVENT PROBABILITY

Based on the El Nino event data sequence from 1854 to 1993, the nature of sequences was determined by using statistical normal and independent tests, etc. With the Markov random process and first order auto-regression predictive model, we set up the prognostication mode and give the time limit of the occurrence of next El Nino event, which probably occurs around 2002.The occurring probability for 2001 is 44 %, and it is 61 % for 2002.     

太阳黑子对厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜的影响

本文分析了太阳黑子、日食、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象之间的关系，指明了用太阳黑子和日食情况来预测厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象在时间上和强度上，都可有很高准确性，太阳黑子峰值年影响日食形成的厄尔尼诺加强，拉尼娜减弱，谷值年相反。     

80年代两次厄尔尼诺期间西太平洋及其邻近海区大气加热场的差异

本文分析了1986—1987年与1982—1983年两次厄尔尼诺过程中西太平洋及其邻近海区大气加热场的差异。结果表明:(1)两次厄尔尼诺过程西太平洋及其邻近海区上空大气都是一个很强的热源区,且后一次比前一次更强;(2)两次厄尔尼诺的最强加热区明显不同,后一次的加热场分布异常偏北,前一次又异常偏南,这与同期赤道低压带的变化一致;(3)大气加热强度的明显不同主要是降水潜热的增长不一致形成的。     

ANOMALIES OF THE BACKGROUND CIRCULATION OF THE IAP GCM MODEL ATMOSPHERE IN AN EL NINO YEAR

Analysis is performed of the May-September mean circulation,referred to as the background circulationhereinafter,in the IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Academia Sinica)GCM model atmosphere,It is foundthat in an El Nino year there occur anomalies in a set of major systems,e.g.,Southetm Oscillation,Walker andHadley circulations,the western Pacific subtropical high and ITCZ,2nd in large-scale precipitation,with theirhappening dominantly in the Northern Hemisphere tropical and subtropical latitudes in the western Pacific.These results that are in rough agreement with the analyz(?)d actual observations demonstrate the applicabilities ofthe model to the study of low-latitude circulations.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 500hPa DIABATIC HEAT FLOW FIELD IN YEARS OF EL NINO AND ANTI-EL NINO

In this paper,by using spectral method,the monthly-and seasonal-scale atmospheric diabatic heat flow(ADHF)departure fields are diagnosed in the period of 1964—1985 with 6 El Nino years and 6 anti-El Nino years over theNorthern hemisphere(NH).The results show that El Nino phenomena have pronounced influence on the ADHF depar-ture fields.The response of atmosphere exhibits a preferred arrangement of organizing positive and negative departurecenters at low,middle and high latitudes.In anti-El Nino years,the response has the same forms as in El Nino years,but departure centers are opposite in phase.Furthermore,ADHF departure shows low-frequency oscillation in El Ninoyears and anti-El Nino years.The center of difference in departure between El Nino and anti-El Nino years displays abi-monthly oscillation.Finally,through air-sea correlation analysis,it is pointed out that the SST anomaly is the most important cause forADHF anomaly.