The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the IPCC AR4 Coupled Models

This study evaluates the fidelity of Arctic and Antarctic oscillations (AO and AAO for short,respectively) in the coupled general circulation models participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4).The AO and AAO during 1970-1999 in 24 models are analyzed and compared with that in ERA-40 and NCEP-1.Models'performance is seasonally dependent,with best reproducibility of both spatial structure and trend in winter.In most models,the spatial pattern and temporal trend of AAO during this period are more delicately simulated than AO.After picking out models with better performance according to the Taylor diagram,we find that their ensemble mean can obviously improve models'reproducibility.The AO and AAO in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B Projection during the 21st century are also briefly analyzed.The results reveal that both the AO and AAO indices keep increasing during 1970-2099,with a steadier pace of AO than AAO.The spatial difference of sea level pressure between 2060 2089 and 1970-1999 shows decreased values in polar regions,and increased values in midlatitudes.The results manifest that the ozone recovery during the mid 21st century may not weaken such a trend.     

Extremely low temperatures in the stratosphore and very low total ozone amount above northern and central Europe during winter 1989

On 1 February 1989, -83.5°C was recorded in 27.8 hPa over Hohenpeißenberg, the lowest temperature in the 22-year series. This was measured together with a very low total ozone amount of 266 DU. This may be compared with nearly twice this amount on 27 February 1989. The situation was very unusual: following an extremely cold winter in the Arctic stratosphere, the stratospheric cold pole was located over southern Scandinavia on 1 February in a very southerly position. The analyzed temperatures of -92 °C in 30 hPa were also unusual. Even though the low ozone amounts over Hohenpeißenberg were probably dynamically caused, an additional very small ozone decrease due to heterogeneous reactions in altitudes from 23–28 km, where the temperatures lie below -80 °C, cannot be ruled out. Extinction measurements by the orbitting SAGE II instrument indeed show polar stratospheric clouds over Europe near 50° N during the period 31 January–2 February. Also, polar stratospheric clouds were previously observed over Kiruna at similarly low temperatures and signs of a corresponding small ozone decrease were noted there.     

春季热带地区OLR低频振荡及其与长江中下游连阴雨

本文应用NOAA卫星接收的1975—1983年向外长波辐射(OLR)资料研究了春季热带地区低频振荡的基本特征,得出东半球热带地区盛行周期为30天左右的低频振荡,这种振荡最显著的区域在0—10°S、70—90°E的印度洋地区。文章阐述了过渡季节这种低频振荡的经向和纬向传播特征。 本文还进一步指出,在热带低频振荡的不同阶段,ITCZ、北半球副热带以及西风带环流系统也呈现出显著的周期变化,并查证了低频振荡作为长江中下游连阴雨和连晴过程的背景事实。因此本研究工作也为长江中下游连阴雨和连晴天气的中、长期可预报性提供     

DIAGNOSTIC STUDY FOR INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OF THE MIDDLE-HIGH LATITUDES IN A LOW RESOLUTION GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL

In this paper, five-year simulated data from a low-resolution global spectral model with triangular trunca-lion at wavenumber 10 are analyzed in order to study dynamical features and propagation characteristics ofintraseasonal oxillations over the mid-latitudes and the tropical atmosphere. The simulations show that thereis the 30-50 day periodic oscillation in the low-resolution spectral model without non-seasonal external forcing,and spatial scale of the intraseasonal oscihations is of the globe .Further analysis finds that propagation charac-ters of intraseasonal oscillations over the mid-latitudes and the tropics are different. The 30-50 day oscillationover the tropics exhibits structure of the velocity potential wave with wavenumber 1 in the latitudinal and thecharacter of the traveling wave eastward at speed of 8 longitudes/day. However, the 30-50 day oscillationsin mid-latitude atmosphere exhibit phase and amplitude oscillation of the standing planetary waves and theyare related to transform of teleconnection patterns over the mid-latitudes. The energy is not only transferredbetween the tropics and the middle-high latitudes, but also between different regions over the tropics. Based on the analysis of 5-year band pass filtered data from a 5-layer global spectral model of Jow-ordetwith truncated wavenumber l0,investigation is done of the source of intraseasonal oscillations in the extratropicalmodel atmosphere and its mechanism. Results show that (1) the convective heat transferred eastward alongthe equator serves as the source of the intraseasonal oxillation both in the tropical and the extratropical atmos--phere; (2) the velocity-potential wave of a zonal structure of wavenumber 1 gives rise to oxillation in divergentand convergent wind fields of a dipole-form as seen from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the western Pacificduring its eastward propagation, thus indicating the oscillation in the dipole-form heat soure:e/sink pattertl; (3)the tropical heat-source oscillation is responsible for the variation in phase and intensity of the extratropicalstationary wave train, and the interaction between the oscillating low-frequency inertial gravity and stationaryRossby modes that are probably mechanisms for the oscillations ip the middle-high latitudes.     

东北冷涡活动的季节内振荡特征及其影响

东北冷涡是造成我国东北地区低温冷害、持续性阴雨和突发性强对流的重要天气系统.利用1979～2009年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和中国气象科学研究院提供的中国区域高分辨率格点降水资料,定义了一个客观描述东北冷涡活动的指数 (NECVI),并基于该指数分析了东北冷涡活动的低频特征及其与相关环流和降水的关系.结果表明,东北冷涡活动具有显著的10～30天振荡周期.与东北冷涡活动相关的大气环流的10～30天振荡和我国东部夏季降水异常具有明显的锁相关系,对雨带的位置起着重要的调制作用,在东北冷涡及其相关低频环流由西北向东南的移动过程中,我国东部也经历一次由北至南的降水过程.本文还进一步讨论了东北冷涡的低频活动与中高纬大气环流遥相关型的关系.与东北冷涡相联系的低频环流是夏季低频欧亚 (EU) 型遥相关波列的一部分,低频欧亚型 (EU型) 与东亚/太平型 (EAP型) 遥相关波列在东亚地区交汇,并通过波列之间的相互作用影响东北冷涡低频系统的移向和移速,进而影响中国东部降水的位置与维持时间.因而前期EU型和EAP型低频波列的发展情况可能预示着后期中国东部各个区域降水的演变.本文研究结果将为提高我国东部强降水的1～2周延伸期天气预报提供参考.     

卑尔根气候模式中大西洋热盐环流年代际与年际变率的气候影响

利用一个全球海气耦合模式--卑尔根气候模式的积分结果,揭示了与大西洋热盐环流(THC)年代际和年际振荡相对应的气候异常型.年代际振荡发生在全海盆尺度,伴有亚速尔高压的增强、冰岛低压的加深;年际振荡发生在局地尺度,伴有亚速尔高压的减弱.这两种海平面气压异常型都反映了北大西洋涛动(NAO)活动中心的强度变化,两种变率型对应的拉布拉多海对流活动都加剧.但伴随局地尺度的THC调整,伊尔明格海的对流活动减弱.蒸发异常对拉布拉多海表层盐度异常的影响较为显著.分析表明,局地尺度的THC振荡主要是对大气强迫的被动响应,而海盆尺度THC振荡的实质是反映整个输送带的强度变化,其气候意义要大于THC的局地振荡.     

太平洋年代际振荡冷、暖背景下ENSO循环的特征

利用英国气象局哈德莱中心的月平均海温距平资料、美国Scripps海洋研究所联合环境分析中心(JEDAC)的海表和次表层海温观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)不同背景下ENSO循环的特征.结果表明,PDO为ENSO循环提供了一个年代际气候背景,在PDO的暖位相时期,El Nino事件发生的频率较高,强度较强;反之,在PDO的冷位相时期,La Nina事件发生的频率较高,强度较强.而且在不同的太平洋年代际振荡背景下,ENSO循环表现出不同的特征.在PDO冷位相时期,发生El Nino(La Nina)事件时,正(负)的SOTA从西太平洋沿温跃层向东传播,正(负)的SSTA从赤道东太平洋向西扩展到中太平洋,ENSO事件先在赤道东太平洋爆发.在PDO的暖位相时期,发生El Nino(La Nina)事件时,正(负)的SOTA首先出现在赤道中太平洋,然后沿温跃层向东传播,正(负)的SSTA从赤道中太平洋向东扩展到东太平洋,ENSO事件首先在中太平洋爆发.这为ENSO预测提供了新的线索.     

全球季风系统的稳定性与年代际变化

采用1948～2004年共57年NCEP再分析逐日风场资料,分3个气候时段对全球季风系统的稳定性与年代际变化作了初步研究.发现全球季风系统的地理分布和斜压结构具有很好的稳定性,但强度存在明显的年代际变化.季风的年代际变化以强度的局域振荡和持续加强或减弱为主要形式,不具有传播性.不同高度季风年代际变化的敏感区不同,在对流层低层主要的年代际变化位于北半球中的东半球;而在对流层高层则位于西半球热带地区;在平流层则在环球的两个纬带(20～40°N和赤道带).     

东亚和西太平洋地区 30～60天振荡的传播及其与月平均基流的相互作用

选取1985年和1988年这两个东亚和西太平洋地区月平均流场差异很大的年份,研究30～60天低频振荡的传播及其与月平均基流的相互作用.结果表明:在这两年,东亚和西太平洋地区的30～60天低频振荡受到两支低频涡旋的影响,其中一支来源于热带东印度洋,另一支源自中太平洋.在大部分时间里,这两支低频涡旋相遇于20～30°N地区,并影响到该地区位势高度场的变化.当低频气旋(反气旋)移经西太平洋的时候,该地区的位势高度场相应地降低(升高).另一方面,该地区的30～60天振荡还有着显著的年际差异.1985年的波列活动显著,中高纬低频涡旋南移至日本南部洋面.与1985年不同的是,虽然1988年的波列活动不明显,但中高纬的低频涡旋可向南传播至南海地区.从30～60天振荡和月平均基流的动能和有效位能相互转换来看,正压过程、湿斜压过程和干斜压过程的值相当,因而上述3种过程均有可能起主导作用.但转换强度存在年际差异,1985年的值远比1988年的大.研究还表明,暖池地区的30～60天振荡向月平均基流输送能量,中高纬地区的30～60天振荡则从月平均基流获取能量.