This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO2 from combustion by about 85 MtCO2 by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO2 not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO2 by 2030. 相似文献
Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.
Policy relevance
The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions. 相似文献
As the two large developing and populous countries, China and India face the dual challenges of economic development and climate change. Both of them are active in carbon emissions reduction, while India also bears the pressure of being “benchmarked” against China. With taking China and India as the sample of a comparative analysis, and the statistical value of a long sequence as the basic analysis data, based on the detailed analysis and comparison of carbon emissions history, the carbon emissions situation of the two countries from various dimensions including economic development, energy reserves and consumption, etc. were comparatively analyzed. The carbon intensity and energy structure after achieving the objectives were measured and compared by focusing on the carbon emissions reduction targets in China and India. The comparative results show that: China’s total carbon emissions are greater than India’s, but the growth rate of emissions, per capita emissions are significantly lower than India’s, while the carbon intensity decreases significantly faster than that of India. China has taken more efforts to make commitments to carbon reduction than India. With India’s energy structure adjustment, the situation will be gradually better than that in China. 相似文献
Species of thyasirid bivalves are considered to be representative of early stages of chemosymbiosis, given that bacterial symbionts occur outside gill epithelial cells, vary among species in their abundance and nutritional importance, and are environmentally acquired. For these reasons, assessing the extent of host–symbiont specificity in thyasirids could provide valuable information on the evolution of chemosymbiosis. We show that individuals of two closely related and sympatric Thyasira cf. gouldi operational taxonomic units collected from three sites in a fjord in Newfoundland, Canada, associate with one of three distinct, closely related symbiont phylotypes. While associations show some site‐specificity, there is flexibility in host–symbiont pairings within the fjord, further supporting an early and relatively unspecific stage of chemosymbiosis in this family. Morphologic differences observed both within and among symbiont phylotypes suggest physiologic variation, possibly induced by small‐scale differences in sedimentary conditions. 相似文献
The source of sulfur in giant Norilsk-type sulfide deposits is discussed. A review of the state of the problem and a critical analysis of existing hypotheses are made. The distribution of δ34S in sulfides of ore occurrences and small and large deposits and in normal sedimentary, metamorphogenic, and hypogene sulfates is considered. A large number of new δ34S data for sulfides and sulfates in various deposits, volcanic and terrigenous rocks, coals, graphites, and metasomatites are presented. The main attention is focused on the objects of the Norilsk and Kureika ore districts. The δ34S value varies from -14 to + 22.5‰ in sulfides of rocks and ores and from 15.3 to 33‰ in anhydrites. In sulfide-sulfate intergrowths and assemblages, δ34S is within 4.2-14.6‰ in sulfides and within 15.3-21.3‰ in anhydrites. The most isotopically heavy sulfur was found in pyrrhotite veins in basalts (δ34S = 21.6‰), in sulfate veins cutting dolomites (δ34S = 33‰), and in subsidence caldera sulfates in basalts (δ34S = 23.2-25.2‰). Sulfide ores of the Tsentral’naya Shilki intrusion have a heavy sulfur isotope composition (δ34S = + 17.7‰ (n = 15)). Thermobarogeochemical studies of anhydrites have revealed inclusions of different types with homogenization temperatures ranging from 685 °C to 80 °C. Metamorphogenic and hypogene anhydrites are associated with a carbonaceous substance, and hypogene anhydrites have inclusions of chloride-containing salt melts. We assume that sulfur in the trap sulfide deposits was introduced with sulfates of sedimentary rocks (δ34S = 22-24‰). No assimilation of sulfates by basaltic melt took place. The sedimentary anhydrites were “steamed” by hydrocarbons, which led to sulfate reduction and δ34S fractionation. As a result, isotopically light sulfur accumulated in sulfides and hydrogen sulfide, isotopically heavy sulfur was removed by aqueous calcium sulfate solution, and “residual” metamorphogenic anhydrite acquired a lighter sulfur isotope composition as compared with the sedimentary one. The wide variations in δ34S in sulfides and sulfates are due to changes in the physicochemical parameters of the ore-forming system (first of all, temperature and Pch4) during the sulfate reduction. The regional hydrocarbon resources were sufficient for large-scale ore formation. 相似文献
For the first time, we present the rare earth element (REE) and sulfur isotopic composition of hydrothermal precipitates recovered from the Tangyin hydrothermal field (THF), Okinawa Trough at a water depth of 1206 m. The natural sulfur samples exhibit the lowest ΣREE concentrations (ΣREE= 0.65×10–6–4.580×10–6) followed by metal sulfides (ΣREE=1.71×10–6–11.63×10–6). By contrast, the natural sulfur-sediment samples have maximum ΣREE concentrations (ΣREE=11.54×10–6–33.06×10–6), significantly lower than those of the volcanic and sediment samples. Nevertheless, the δEu, δCe, (La/Yb)N, La/Sm, (Gd/Yb)N and normalized patterns of the natural sulfur and metal sulfide show the most similarity to the sediment. Most hydrothermal precipitate samples are characterized by enrichments of LREE (LREE/HREE=10.09–24.53) and slightly negative Eu anomalies or no anomaly (δEu=0.48–0.99), which are different from the hydrothermal fluid from sediment-free mid-oceanic ridges and back-arc basins, but identical to the sulfides from the Jade hydrothermal field. The lower temperature and more oxidizing conditions produced by the mixing between seawater and hydrothermal fluids further attenuate the leaching ability of hydrothermal fluid, inducing lower REE concentrations for natural sulfur compared with metal sulfide; meanwhile, the negative Eu anomaly is also weakened or almost absent. The sulfur isotopic compositions of the natural sulfur (δ34S=3.20‰–5.01‰, mean 4.23‰) and metal sulfide samples (δ34S=0.82‰–0.89‰, mean 0.85‰) reveal that the sulfur of the chimney is sourced from magmatic degassing. 相似文献