我国华东与西南县域主要气象敏感性疾病变化特征及其医疗费用研究

摘要：针对目前医疗费用不断上涨的现实问题,基于安徽省阜南县和贵州省锦屏县相关医疗机构的全部住院数据和气象资料,首先分析两县疾病谱特征,然后从季节和24节气角度,分析两县主要气象敏感性疾病（因天气和气候异常变化而诱发或加重的相关疾病）住院人次和医疗费用的变化特征以及人体舒适度对当地主要气象敏感性疾病发病的影响。结果表明,阜南县和锦屏县人群中住院人数最多的疾病分别是循环和呼吸系统两大类气象敏感性疾病,医疗费用最高的前六位疾病都包含循环、呼吸和消化系统疾病,其三者医疗费用总和分别占两县总医疗费用的44.9%和45.8%,因此,从降低医疗费用的角度来看加强这三类主要气象敏感性疾病的预防十分重要。此外,三种系统疾病医疗费用呈现出明显的季节变化特征：其中,循环系统疾病的医疗费用在季节转换期间明显高于各季节内,呼吸系统疾病冬春季的医疗费用远高于夏秋季节,消化系统疾病夏季医疗费用最高。两县9月的体感温度最接近人体最佳舒适温度,而此时上述三类疾病的住院人次及医疗费用也是相对低点。此研究结果可为当地相关疾病的适时防控、有效降低医疗费用提供科学依据。     

Relational Agriculture: Gender,Sexuality, and Sustainability in U.S. Farming

Although 97% of U.S. farms are “family-owned,” little research examines how gender and sexual relationships – inherent in familial dynamics – influence farmers’ practices and livelihoods. Gender and sexual dynamics – shaped by race and class – affect who is considered a farmer, land management decisions, and access to resources like land, subsidies, and knowledge. We use feminist and queer lenses to illuminate how today’s agricultural gender and sexual relations are not “natural,” but when left uninterrogated are constructed in ways that harm women and queer farmers while limiting potential to develop sustainable practices. Women and queer farmers also resist, “re-orienting” gender and sexual relations in ways that expand possibilities for achieving food justice and ecological sustainability. We offer “relational agriculture” as a tool for making visible and re-orienting gender and sexual relations on farms. Relational agriculture brings sexuality into food justice and demonstrates the centrality of gender and sexuality to agricultural sustainability.     

Uncertainty in marine weather routing

Weather routing methods are essential for planning routes for commercial shipping and recreational craft. This paper provides a methodology for quantifying the significance of numerical error and performance model uncertainty on the predictions returned from a weather routing algorithm. The numerical error of the routing algorithm is estimated by solving the optimum path over different discretizations of the environment. The uncertainty associated with the performance model is linearly varied in order to quantify its significance. The methodology is applied to a sailing craft routing problem: the prediction of the voyaging time for an ethnographic voyaging canoe across long distance voyages in Polynesia. We find that the average numerical error is an order of magnitude smaller than the performance model uncertainty. These results illustrate the significance of considering the influence of numerical error and performance uncertainty when performing a weather routing study.     

德保县农业气候资源的保护对策

针对目前德保县在农业气候资源利用中的存在问题,提出保护当地农业气候资源的几点应对策略。     

新一代天气雷达VIL产品修正方法初探

基于对VIL物理量产品的生成原理和特点的分析后认为:由于产品生成过程中只使用固定的Z-M关系,而实际的Z-M关系因季节和地域的不同变化很大,故VIL物理量产品数据很难与实际情况很好地符合,不宜在人工增雨作业指挥中作为定量数据指标来直接应用。据此,从理论上对如何修正天气雷达提供的VIL产品数据进行了探讨:通过引入“VIL修正函数”,可从理论上解决在考虑了某个具体的Z-M关系的条件下对VIL产品数据进行修正的问题;提出了对VIL物理量产品数据进行修正的修正表格法与修正曲线法,并以沈阳为例,对修正表格和修正曲线的制作及使用方法作了必要的解释。     

Studies of Nitrous Oxide Emission from Farmlands in North China

Measurements of nitrous oxide emission from agricultural lands were conducted. The results show that nitrous oxide fluxes on several soils are at the range of 2-60 μg . N / m2 h. Factors influencing the production rates of nitrous oxide from the soils, such as soil temperature, soil moisture and fertilization, are discussed. The calculated amount of nitrous oxide emission from China farmlands is 9.8 × 107 Kg . N per year, which accounts for about 10% of the total source strength in China areas.     

Development of Artificial Intelligence Technology in Weather Forecast

Numerical weather prediction, which is the major basis of current weather forecast, has some shortcomings, such as the understanding of the law of atmospheric motion, the assimilation and application of observation data, the expression of model physics, etc., leading to the forecast error of weather. The rapid development of artificial intelligence technology in recent years provides a new possibility for the advancement and innovation of weather forecast. In this paper, the background of the development of artificial intelligence, the current situation of the application of artificial intelligence technology to weather forecast and the future development trend are mainly described to account for this possibility. After that, the idea for development of weather forecast technology based on the integration of artificial intelligence and numerical forecast is put forward. Particularly, this study stresses that, in order to advance the AI algorithm of weather forecast in the future, it is requested to focus on the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of atmospheric motion leading to the uncertainty of forecast. Starting from the essence of mathematics and physics, we need to realize the hybrid modeling of mathematics and physics, not only to establish the framework of input-output mapping, but also to provide solutions to the bottleneck problems of weather forecast.     

臭氧对农作物的影响研究

臭氧(O3)是大气微量成分之一。近地层O3含量的增加，将直接影响农作物的生长发育。本文简要介绍了国外有关O3对农作物影响的研究方法和试验研究结果，以及我国有关O3对农作物影响的研究动态。     

1904～1907年拉萨气候特征再分析

通过对以《有泰拉萨天气日志》为主的历史文献资料的深入挖掘 ,作者分析了 1 90 4年 2月 9日～ 1 90 7年 4月 1 7日拉萨的气候特征 :气候温暖 ,暖冬现象显著 ,而且 1 90 5年气温高于 1 90 4年 ;干旱气候占主导地位 ,间有多雨期 ;天气多变 ,多风 ,有雾 ;水灾、雪灾、干旱等自然灾害严重。拉萨与全球同时段的气候变化大体一致。     

Application of the hydrologic visibility concept to estimate rainfall measurement quality of two planned weather radars

This paper presents a practical application of the “hydrologic visibility” concept to select the future site of two planned weather radars of the French national network ARAMIS. This selection was realised by simulating the errors in radar rainfall measurement due to interactions of the radar beam with relief, and to the vertical variation of the radar reflectivity with altitude. Results show the interest of these simulations to optimise the radar location according to the objectives of radar coverage. Beyond these results, this paper highlights aspects interesting for hydrology: this type of simulation can be used to assess the radar measurement quality before initiating a quantitative exploitation of radar data, and before making a comparison or a combination with rain gauge data.