Street petrol station shops as an alternative to missing local food suppliers – Contribution to the German discourse on ‘Daseinsvorsorge’: A German view

Services of general interest fulfill people's daily needs and are important for their well-being. In Germany, interacting socioeconomic and demographic processes currently lead to a spatial concentration of such services. Rural areas are particularly affected, resulting in a deterioration of living conditions. Nevertheless, although in the media and in policy these processes are intensely discussed against the background of the German political and scientific discourse on ‘Daseinsvorsorge’, little is known about their dimensions. However, such knowledge is important for both policy and scientific policy advice, as ‘Daseinsvorsorge’ is a key concept in German spatial planning discourse, rooted in the normative political goal of guaranteeing comparable living conditions throughout Germany. This goal includes the aim of ensuring a sufficient offering of services indispensable for life throughout the country. One subject area where a spatial concentration can be observed is retail food sales. As a consequence, especially in rural areas, the network of food shopping locations becomes more wide meshed. Against this background, the German petrol-sector claims that in rural regions, petrol station shops (PSS) might replace a missing local food retailer. Based on the data from an accessibility analysis of petrol stations, supermarkets and discounters, together with considerations on the assortment of PSS, the article analyses the potential of such shops to fulfill this function in rural Germany through the lens of ‘Daseinsvorsorge’. The analysis reveals the following: (1) PSS still mainly serve impulse shopping needs, offering only a very limited assortment of staple foods; (2) in the majority of regions with no supermarket or discounter accessible by foot, PSS are also not accessible by foot; and (3) by car, the picture is very similar. Considering these points, it can be concluded that in Germany, PSS cannot at this time fully replace a missing local retail trade, especially in rural areas.     

基于可拓学的生态市建设评价——以哈尔滨市为例

生态市建设的评价是衡量生态市规划、建设和管理成效的主要依据。在诠释生态市概念的基础上,基于EES模式和层次分析法构建生态市建设评价指标体系,运用可拓学的物元分析方法构建生态市建设评价的综合评判模型,并以哈尔滨市为例进行了实证研究。结果表明:①从2005年到2008年哈尔滨市生态市建设整体上呈现出由较差向合格跃升的趋势;②噪声环境质量、人口自然增长率成为制约哈尔滨市生态市建设水平的因素;③评价结果与现实情况比较吻合,表明物元分析方法在生态市建设评价中具有较强的可信度。     

夏季南亚高压移上高原时间特征的初步分析

本文利用合成分析等方法分析了南亚高压上高原早晚东亚地区大气环流特征,并讨论了其对我国东部地区降水的影响。结果表明,南亚高压上高原时间变化不仅存在8 a的长周期变化,还存在2 a的短周期变化。在南亚高压上高原偏早(晚)年,南亚高压强度较平均态强(弱),东伸指数较平均值大(小)。并且偏晚年,850hPa上西太平洋副高较平均态偏西,长江流域地区存在辐合,降水增加;偏早年则反之。     

平凉市灰岩岩溶水赋存规律探讨

在研究岩溶水系统及岩溶水赋存条件、运动特征的基础上 ,对平凉市灰岩岩溶地下水的富水规律进行了探讨 ,对今后在该区进行岩溶水勘查有一定的指导意义。     

基于EMD 和集合预报技术的气候预测方法

气候系统是典型的非平稳性系统,然而对于气候观测数据的处理通常是在时间序列平稳的假定下完成的,比如气温和降水的多步预报,这通常会导致预报准确度较低。为改进该缺陷,首先将非平稳数据序列分解成平稳的、多尺度特征的本征模态函数分量(IMF),再使用数值集合预报与逐步回归分析相结合的方式对每一个IMF 分量构建不同的预报模型,最后线性拟合成预报结果。通过Visual Studio 2008 开发平台使用上述方法建立了一个短期气候预报系统,采用广西区88 个气象站1957—2005 年的2 月距平气温数据进行实际验证。结果表明,相对于普通预测和单一预测方法,加入了EMD 和集合预报技术的方法在仅用历史资料进行多步预测的情况下,对于气候的变化趋势以及突发性气候具有更好的预报能力。      

Unleashing expert judgment in assessment

Assessment evaluates accumulated knowledge and its limits. It informs and ideally empowers decisions and actions on complex, contested issues with persistent uncertainties. Applying rigorous expert judgment is an important dimension of assessment. Here we evaluate advances and challenges in approaches to expert judgment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). We find that revised guidance for author teams improved the development of balanced judgments on scientific evidence across disciplines. In particular, expert judgments underpinning conclusions are more extensively, transparently, and consistently communicated: degree-of-certainty terms are more abundant in AR5 policymaker summaries; wider ranges of possible outcomes are presented with greater inclusion of lower-certainty, decision-relevant findings; and expert judgments supporting conclusions are more comparable across working groups. But challenges in developing and communicating assessment conclusions persist, especially for findings with substantial uncertainties and for subjective aspects of judgments. Based on our evaluations and AR5 lessons learned, we propose a simpler, more rigorous framework for developing and communicating expert judgments in environmental assessment. We also describe practices for reducing expert-judgment biases, for advancing integration of evidence and expert judgment, and for addressing subjective dimensions of expert opinion directly and proactively.     

跨入新世纪 迎接新挑战

本文分析了21世纪铀矿地质科研面临的新形势，提出今后工作的总体方针是认真贯彻中央精神，具体落实中核集团提出的目标任务，在成矿理论的创新与发展，传统与非传统矿产资源的勘查与开发利用，矿业开发与环境保护的协调发展等研究领域有新的突破。文章强调了大规模成矿作用及大型矿集区预测研究的重要性，认为应加强学科交叉和学术交流活动，争取良好的政策环境，保持必要的投资强度，培养和造就一批年轻的技术骨干和学科带头人，以崭新的姿态迎接21世纪的挑战。     

南极中山站极夜、极昼期间地磁场的日变化规律及特征

利用1991年南极中山站的地磁资料,分析研究了极夜（5,6,7月）及极昼（11,12月）期间地磁场的变化规律及特征．结果表明,极昼期间的S出现的双峰现象要比极夜期间的明显的多,S是叠加在S之上的极盖区地磁场静日变化;极夜期间的Sq,Sq和SD的变化幅度小于极昼期间的变化幅度,大约是极昼期的1／3,SD大约是极昼的3／4.这主要是由于极夜期间太阳的直射点在北半球,在南半球太阳的波辐射少;极昼期间太阳直射点在南半球,太阳的波辐射增大,致使空间电离层等效电流强度发生变化产生的．     

Research Progress on Assessing the Impacts of Urban Expansion on Natural Habitats

Urban expansion has become one of the main factors influencing natural habitats. Understanding the advances on the assessments of the impacts of urban expansion on natural habitats is of great significance to balance the contradiction between urban expansion and natural habitats protection and to improve urban sustainability. Therefore, this paper reviewed the assessments of the impacts of urban expansion on natural habitats. The results showed that the number of papers and the frequency of citations continuously increased. Previous studies mainly evaluated the impacts of urban expansion on natural habitats in broad sense, and emphasized the impacts on the area and spatial patterns of natural habitats. The scale of previous studies concentrated on the local scale, and the spatial statistics were used as the most popular assessment method. Previous studies have laid a good foundation for understanding the impacts of urban expansion on natural habitats, but there are shortcomings in several aspects of contents, scales and methods. To solve those shortcomings, we propose a framework for assessing the impacts of urban expansion on natural habitats based on the principle of "multiple perspectives, multiple scales, and multiple methods". This framework will be helpful to assess the impacts of urbanization on natural habitats in a more effective way.     

浅谈城市开发建设中湿地的保护与利用

湿地是人类赖以生存的宝贵资源,具有重要的生态和社会价值。但在城市化进程中,由于不合理的开发建设行为,导致大量湿地被破坏,功能退化。因此,必须落实科学发展观,采取切实措施,有效保护和利用城市湿地。要强化全社会的环保意识,增强保护湿地的责任感和使命感,科学地搞好城市土地利用规划及城市湿地景观设计,切实加强对城市湿地的监测评估及湿地保护的法制建设,推动经济社会全面协调可持续发展。