The Relation between the Amplitude and the Period of Solar Cycles

The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anti-correlated (r = -0.72) with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before (at lag -3) in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.     

GPS/LEO掩星观测的变分同化技术

在简单介绍GPS/LEO掩星探测大气的发展历史和科学意义之后,详细阐述了反演的基本原理;分析了标准反演中存在的问题,并说明一维变分同化(1DVAR)在反演方法中的重要性;给出了一维变分同化中价值函数的求解,以及各种同化因子;简单介绍了对当前气象学中普遍使用的四维变分同化(4DVAR);重点讨论了各种同化方法,以及使用各种同化因子的优缺点。最后,通过CHAMP卫星的观测实例分析,验证了GPS数据在数值天气预报(NWP)中的作用,以及相对于标准反演法一维变分对气象要素的改进。     

Disk galaxy evolution: from the Milky Way to high-redshift disks

We develop a detailed model of the Milky Way (a `prototypical' disk galaxy) and extend it to other disks with the help of some simple scaling relations, obtained in the framework of Cold Dark Matter models. This phenomenological (`hybrid') approach to the study of disk galaxy evolution allows us to reproduce successfully a large number of observed properties of disk galaxies in the local Universe and up to redshift z ∼ 1. The important conclusion is that, on average, massive disks have formed the bulk of their stars earlier than their lower mass counterparts: the `star formation hierarchy' has been apparently opposite to the `dark matter assembly' hierarchy. It is not yet clear whether `feedback' (as used in semi-analytical models of galaxy evolution) can explain that discrepancy. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.