气候变化背景下珠江流域极端洪水事件的变化趋势

根据1951-2010年珠江流域23个典型断面流量资料,用P-III型分布曲线拟合洪水系列进行频率计算,分析了珠江流域极端洪水事件的变化趋势。结果表明：1980年以来,珠江流域极端洪水事件发生的频次明显增加,尤其是自1990年以来增加趋势显著;1981-2010年较1951-1980年珠江流域约70%典型断面极端洪水事件呈增加趋势,主要分布在西江、北江、粤西;而近30%的典型断面呈减少趋势,主要分布在东江和桂南。     

1960—2009年中国冬季区域性极端低温事件的时空特征

采用区域性极端低温事件客观识别技术对1960—2009年的区域性极端低温事件进行检测,并分析其空间分布和时间演变特征。结果表明：区域性极端低温事件指标中最低温度和几何中心纬度的频次分布为双峰特征,发生频次较高的纬度主要位于30°N和42°N附近,且1980年代中期以前南北两个带并存,之后则以30°N附近为主;1960—2009年事件的发生频次、强度和最大覆盖面积等呈总体减弱趋势,在1980年代后期存在显著的转折,1990年代后期变化逐渐趋于平缓,并且这种变化主要是由占总数10%的持续时间长和空间范围广的事件作用的结果。此外,对体现事件多方面影响的综合指标进行等级划分并分析其变化特征。     

Inelastic displacement demands in steel structures and their relationship with earthquake frequency content parameters

This paper deals with the estimation of peak inelastic displacements of SDOF systems, representative of typical steel structures, under constant relative strength scenarios. Mean inelastic deformation demands on bilinear systems (simulating moment resisting frames) are considered as the basis for comparative purposes. Additional SDOF models representing partially‐restrained and concentrically‐braced (CB) frames are introduced and employed to assess the influence of different force‐displacement relationships on peak inelastic displacement ratios. The studies presented in this paper illustrate that the ratio between the overall yield strength and the strength during pinching intervals is the main factor governing the inelastic deformations of partially‐restrained models and leading to significant differences when compared with predictions based on bilinear structures, especially in the short‐period range. It is also shown that the response of CB systems can differ significantly from other pinching models when subjected to low or moderate levels of seismic demand, highlighting the necessity of employing dedicated models for studying the response of CB structures. Particular attention is also given to the influence of a number of scalar parameters that characterise the frequency content of the ground motion on the estimated peak displacement ratios. The relative merits of using the average spectral period T_aver, mean period T_m, predominant period T_g, characteristic period T_c and smoothed spectral predominant period T_o of the earthquake ground motion, are assessed. This paper demonstrates that the predominant period, defined as the period at which the input energy is maximum throughout the period range, is the most suitable frequency content scalar parameter for reducing the variability in displacement estimations. Finally, noniterative equivalent linearisation expressions based on the secant period and equivalent damping ratios are presented and verified for the prediction of peak deformation demands in steel structures. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonlocal period parameters of frequency content characterization for near-fault ground motions

This paper focuses on the frequency property analysis of near-fault ground motions with and without distinct pulses, separately from the Chi-Chi and Northridge earthquakes. Ten scalar period parameters of ground motions, especially several nonlocal period parameters, are considered. Two new nonlocal parameters, namely the mean period of Hilbert marginal spectrum (T_mh) and the improved characteristic period (T_gi), are suggested. Moreover, comprehensive comparison and analysis indicate that T_mh, T_gi and T_avg (average spectral period) can distinguish the low-frequency components of near-fault ground motions; T_m (mean period of Fourier amplitude spectrum) and T_o (smoothed spectral predominant period) represent the moderate- and high-frequency components, respectively. The variance coefficient of predominant instantaneous frequency of Hilbert spectrum (H_cov) can be regarded as an alternative index to measure the non-stationary degree of near-fault ground motions. Finally, the velocity pulses and earthquake magnitude remarkably affect the frequency parameters of near-fault ground motions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Erosional power in the Swiss Alps: characterization of slope failure in the Illgraben

Landslides and rockfalls are key geomorphic processes in mountain basins. Their quantification and characterization are critical for understanding the processes of slope failure and their contributions to erosion and landscape evolution. We used digital photogrammetry to produce a multi‐temporal record of erosion (1963–2005) of a rock slope at the head of the Illgraben, a very active catchment prone to debris flows in Switzerland. Slope failures affect 70% of the study slope and erode the slope at an average rate of 0.39 ± 0.03 m yr¯¹. The analysis of individual slope failures yielded an inventory of ~2500 failures ranging over 6 orders of magnitude in volume, despite the small slope area and short study period. The slope failures form a characteristic magnitude–frequency distribution with a rollover and a power‐law tail between ~200 m³ and 1.6 × 10⁶ m³ with an exponent of 1.65. Slope failure volume scales with area as a power law with an exponent of 1.1. Both values are low for studies of bedrock landslides and rockfall and result from the highly fractured and weathered state of the quartzitic bedrock. Our data suggest that the magnitude–frequency distribution is the result of two separate slope failure processes. Type (1) failures are frequent, small slides and slumps within the weathered layer of highly fractured rock and loose sediment, and make up the rollover. Type (2) failures are less frequent and larger rockslides and rockfalls within the internal bedded and fractured slope along pre‐determined potential failure surfaces, and make up the power‐law tail. Rockslides and rockfalls of high magnitude and relatively low frequency make up 99% of the total failure volume and are thus responsible for the high erosion rate. They are also significant in the context of landscape evolution as they occur on slopes above 45° and limit the relief of the slope. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of soil compaction,rain exposure and their interaction on soil carbon dioxide emission

Soils release more carbon, primarily as carbon dioxide (CO₂), per annum than current global anthropogenic emissions. Soils emit CO₂ through mineralization and decomposition of organic matter and respiration of roots and soil organisms. Given this, the evaluation of the effects of abiotic factors on microbial activity is of major importance when considering the mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions. Previous studies demonstrate that soil CO₂ emission is significantly affected by temperature and soil water content. A limited number of studies have illustrated the importance of bulk density and soil surface characteristics as a result of exposure to rain on CO₂ emission, however, none examine their relative importance. Therefore, this study investigated the effects of soil compaction and exposure of the soil surface to rainfall and their interaction on CO₂ release. We conducted a factorial laboratory experiment with three soil types after sieving (clay, silt and sand soil), three different bulk densities (1·1 g cm^–3, 1·3 g cm^–3, 1·5 g cm^–3) and three different exposures to rainfall (no rain, 30 minutes and 90 minutes of rainfall). The results demonstrated CO₂ release varied significantly with bulk density, exposure to rain and time. The relationship between rain exposure and CO₂ is positive: CO₂ emission was 53% and 42% greater for the 90 minutes and 30 minutes rainfall exposure, respectively, compared to those not exposed to rain. Bulk density exhibited a negative relationship with CO₂ emission: soil compacted to a bulk density of 1·1 g cm^–3 emitted 32% more CO₂ than soil compacted to 1·5 g cm^–3. Furthermore we found that the magnitude of CO₂ effluxes depended on the interaction of these two abiotic factors. Given these results, understanding the influence of soil compaction and raindrop impact on CO₂ emission could lead to modified soil management practices which promote carbon sequestration. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

汶川地震强地面运动模拟

基于确定性震源模型的方法主要用于计算低频(11 Hz)地震动常用经验格林函数法或随机方法,对低频地震动模拟不够准确．本文在确定性震源模型方法基础上,尝试采用分解给定的震源模型的方法来模拟宽频带(0.1——10 Hz)强地面运动,即采用分级离散断层面和分解断层面破裂单元上升时间的方法,增加震源时间函数中的高频信号,从而避免了对地震记录丰富程度和准确性的依赖．文中模拟计算了汶川MS8.0地震在8个地震观测台的地震动,将模拟结果和观测记录进行了加速度时程曲线和傅里叶振幅谱的对比分析．对比结果显示,模拟估计的地震动峰值加速度和持续时间与观测记录的数据基本在plusmn;50%的精度范围内相同,傅里叶振幅谱显示模拟结果有得到10 Hz左右的高频成分. 四川盆地中的台站模拟结果高频衰减比观测记录要快,原因是模拟过程没有考虑场地效应.对强地震动模拟还是要综合考虑震源、传播路径和场地的影响．研究结果表明,此改变震源输入的确定性方法可应用于模拟近断层宽频强地面运动．      

Assessment on variability of extreme climate events for the Upper Thames River basin in Canada

Climate change may affect magnitude and frequency of regional extreme events with possibility of serious impacts on the existing infrastructure systems. This study investigates how the current spatial and temporal variations of extreme events are affected by climate change in the Upper Thames River basin, Ontario, Canada. A weather generator model is implemented to obtain daily time series of three climate variables for two future climate scenarios. The daily time series are disaggregated into hourly to capture characteristics of intense and rapidly changing storms. The maximum annual precipitation events for five short durations, 6‐, 12‐, 24‐, 48‐, and 72‐h durations, at each station are extracted from the generated hourly data. The frequency and seasonality analyses are conducted to investigate the temporal and spatial variability of extreme precipitation events corresponding to each duration. In addition, this study investigates the impacts of increase in temperature using reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. The results indicate that the extreme precipitation events under climate change will occur earlier than in the past. In addition, episodes of extremely high temperature may last longer up to 19·7% than under the no‐change climate scenario. This study points out that the revision of the design storms (e.g. 100‐ or 250‐year return period) is warranted for the west and the south east region of the basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

钢结构房屋动力特性脉动法测试研究

对上海地区的10幢钢结构建筑进行脉动法测试并采集数据,得到广义钢结构房屋的动力特性。选取其中1栋典型建筑通过多次测试和数值模拟分别验证测试的稳定性和准确性。通过分析处理测试数据建立钢结构建筑一阶周期与结构层数或高度的线性关系式,并归纳总结了等效阻尼比的测试结果,为验证结构动力特性理论计算结果、钢结构建筑减震隔震设计以及鉴定、加固改造、损伤识别提供依据。     

泸州特大伏旱特征及成因分析

本文根据泸州各区县1957~2011年气象资料, 按照四川省干旱标准统计各类干旱发生频率, 再利用2006年和2011年特大伏旱的典型个例对泸州伏旱特点、成因、影响进行分析。初步结论是:伏旱发生的机率和危害最大, 中高纬环流特征和西风环流特征异常、副高偏强、温度场偏暖、地理位置特殊等因素是伏旱发生的原因。