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11.
50a来洮河流域降水径流变化趋势分析 总被引:7,自引:2,他引:7
洮河流域 40多年水文实测资料分析表明 ,由于受气候变化及人类活动影响 ,流域降水和径流特征发生了明显变化 ,降水与径流总体呈下降趋势 ,其下降的线性斜率分别为 - 0 .86~ - 1.34mm·a-1和 - 1.5 7~ - 3.36m3·s-1·a-1;而气温呈缓慢上升趋势 ,其上升的线性斜率为 0 0 2℃·a-1.降水的减少和温度的升高已经导致甘南草原荒漠化 ,使许多湿地和湖泊干涸 ;径流的减少和温度增加在近2 0a来有进一步加剧的趋势 . 相似文献
12.
大同市区二十年地下水动态研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
本文首先分析了大同市地下水开采与地下水降深之间的对应关系,同时分析了影响地下水动态的其它因素,然后将地下水开采和大气降水量这两个影响地下水动态的主要因素与地下水动态进行复相关计算,求出相关方程,并进行不同开采量的地下水降深预测,最后根据这些地下水动态研究结果提出了解决大同市水问题几项对策建议。本文的研究结果同时表明,地下水动态研究非常必要且现实意义明显。通过动态变化可以了解地下水的补排及储水介质的变化情况,利用动态变化规律可以预测水文地质条件的变化趋势,根据地下水动态变化特点可采取有针对性的、灵活的取水方案。可以说,地下水动态研究成果在水资源的开发、利用、保护中具有极大的可利用价值。 相似文献
13.
TRMM PR雷达与阜阳雷达降水资料的对比研究 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
选取了1998年与1999年HUBEX观测资料,将TRMM卫星上的星载降雨雷达PR与阜阳的713数字化天气雷达资料在以下3个方面做了比较:(1)强度场的分布;(2)平均反射率廓线;(3)灵敏度。分析、比较结果可知阜阳雷达在探测灵敏度和水平方向的分辨率要高于PR,但由于波束宽度、衰减和资料转化过程计算误差的原因,其远距离处的观测值与真实值有一定偏差。PR波长短,对衰减敏感,尤其是在垂直方向上经过强衰减后,订正值仍偏小。但由于探测方式的不同PR在水平方向上不存在衰减的问题,且其资料分布均匀,因此提出一种用PR资料来订正地基雷达资料的方法用以提高地基雷达探测的精确度。 相似文献
14.
Inclement weather creates a chronic hazard for Canadian travellers. Past studies indicate that road collision rates increase during precipitation, although the magnitude of theincrease varies from study to study, partly as a result of variations in weather and driving conditions,but also because of differences in methods. The goal of the current study is to improve ourunderstanding of the links between weather and travel risk in mid-sized Canadian cities by using astandardized method for analyzing data from six cities with different climates: Halifax-Dartmouth,Ottawa, Québec, Hamilton, Waterloo Region, and Regina. The study has four interrelated objectives: (1) Toconduct a sensitivity analysis to determine the extent to which risk estimates vary depending onthe criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions; (2) To compare therelative risk of collision and injury during precipitation relative to `normal' conditions; (3) Todetermine the extent to which weather-related risks vary fordifferent Canadian cities; and (4) To explore any differences in collision characteristics between events and controls, especially as theyvary from city to city. Results are based on a matched-pair analysis, using six-hour time blocks over afour-year period, 1995 to 1998. Results indicate only modest sensitivity to the criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions. On average, precipitation is associated with a 75 percentincrease in traffic collisions and a 45 percent increase in related injuries, as compared to `normal'seasonal conditions, but risk levels vary depending on the characteristics of the weather event.Both sensitivity to specific weather conditions and weather-related accident profiles vary from city tocity in ways that are not easily explained. 相似文献
15.
Hazard Zoning for Landslides Connected to Torrential Floods in the Jerte Valley (Spain) by using GIS Techniques 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Carrasco R.M. Pedraza J. Martin-Duque J.F. Mattera M. Sanz M.A. Bodoque J.M. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):361-381
The Jerte Valley is anortheast-southwest tending graben located in the mountainous region of west central Spain (Spanish Central System). Mass movements have been a predominant shaping process on the Valley slopes during the Quaternary. Present day activity is characterized as either `first-time failure' (shallow debris slides and debris flows) or `reactivations' of pre-existing landslides deposits.A delineation of landslide hazard zoningwithin the Valley has been carried out by using the detailed documentation of a particular event (a debris slide and a sequel torrential flood, which occurred on the Jubaguerra stream gorge), and GIS techniques. The procedure has had four stages, which are: (1) the elaboration of a susceptibility map (spatial prediction) of landslides; (2) the elaboration of a map of `restricted susceptibility' in the particular case of slopes that are connected to streams and torrents (gorges); (3) the elaboration of a digital model which relates the altitude to the occurrence probability of those particular precipitation conditions which characterized the Jubaguerra event and (4) the combination of the probability model with the `restricted susceptibility map', to establish `critical zones' or areas which are more prone to the occurrence of phenomena that have same typology as this one. 相似文献
16.
Anton VaksMiryam Bar-Matthews Avner AyalonBettina Schilman Mabs GilmourChris J Hawkesworth Amos FrumkinAaron Kaufman Alan Matthews 《Quaternary Research》2003,59(2):182-193
High-resolution 230Th/234U ages and δ18O and δ13C compositions of speleothems in Ma’ale Efrayim Cave located to the east of the central mountain ridge of Israel enable us to examine the nature of the rain shadow aridity during glacial and interglacial intervals. Speleothem growth occurred during marine glacial isotopic periods, with no growth during the two last marine isotope interglacial intervals and during the peak of the Last Glacial Maximum. This contrasts with speleothem growth in caves located on the western flank of the central mountain ridge, in the Eastern Mediterranean semiarid climatic zone, which continued throughout the last 240,000 yr. Thus, during glacial periods water reached both sides of the central mountain ridge. A comparison of the present-day rain and cave water isotopic compositions and amounts at the Ma’ale Efrayim Cave site with those on the western flank shows that evaporation and higher temperatures on the eastern flank are major influences on isotopic composition and the lack of rainfall. The δ18O and δ13C profiles of the speleothems deposited between 67,000 and 25,000 yr B.P. match the general trends of the isotopic profiles of Soreq Cave speleothems, suggesting a similar source (eastern Mediterranean Sea) and similar climatic conditions. Thus, during glacial periods the desert boundary effectively migrated further south or east from its present-day location on the eastern flank, whereas interglacial periods appear to have been similar to the present, with the desert boundary at the same position. The decrease in overall temperature and a consequent reduction in the evaporation to precipitation ratios on the eastern flank are viewed as the major factors controlling the decay of the rain shadow effect during glacial periods. 相似文献
17.
选取反映大气环流作用的500hPa的三个因子场:1956~2001年环流特征量、振幅和位相资料作为预报因子与钦州市1957~2002年5月降水量求相关比,将求得的高相关比因子用非线性映象法制作钦州市1995~2002年5月的降水量预报,试报效果明显。 相似文献
18.
美国国家气象中心自1960年开始实施定量降雨预报及其检验方案直至1993年33年间,定量降雨预报从广泛依靠预报员经验的人工方法转变到更多依靠对数值模式的解释和修正3的方法,这是预报技术的一大进步。 相似文献
19.
1976年唐山地震前,在距震源很远的地区内都观测到一些前兆趋势变化,如重力、重力位二次徽商W△、水氧、地电阻率、水位和油井出油量等变化。作者认为这些变化不是由震源体直接引起的,而是在区域应力场的作用下,在某些活动断层附近,浅层岩,尤其是含水砂岩层和含油层受挤压出现的一些与地震有关的异常现象。其特征是:(1)异常范围大,可能在距震源很远的地方发生,但就同一种方法的多个观测点来说却又是局部的,即只有其中部分测点才能观测到异常,不少测点观测不到异常。(2)异常发生的时间大致相同。有些异常有同步变化的特征,如同时上升或同时下降。(3)临震前多数异常有恢复的趋势。这些特征与引起异常的机理有关。作者还从理论上计算了这种趋势异常量级,重力变化100×10-6cm/s2左右,重力位二次微商变化(1~2)×10-9/s2,地电阻率变化2%~3%,Rn变化7.4~11.1Bq/L,这样的变化量在活动断层附近的一些台站可能观测到。作者还研究了干旱降雨对某些前兆的影响,其影响量级可以被一些方法观测到,因此在确定是否是地震异常时,必须注意利用综合分析的方法排除干旱降雨的影响,减少异常的多解性。 相似文献
20.
Using rainfall-runoff modeling to interpret lake level data 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Using water balance computations, the behavior of different kinds of lakes is discussed. Simple analytical expressions relating water level to hydrological conditions and lake bathymetry are given. The importance of knowing the river basin area when analyzing lake levels is stressed. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model including lake routing is used to simulate runoff and lake levels and to compute quasi-steady state conditions and long-term transient situations. It is suggested that models can be used to construct curves relating lake levels to precipitation and lake evaporation. By comparing with paleo-lake levels, the annual precipitation related to these levels can be found, provided information is available about the seasonal distribution of the precipitation. 相似文献