模式内部变率引起的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间模拟的不确定性研究

模式内部变率是模拟结果不确定性的重要来源,然而它对于1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响尚不清楚。因此,基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多模式数据研究了模式内部变率对1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响以及对未来排放情景的敏感性。结果表明,模式内部变率对升温阈值出现时间模拟的影响与外强迫的影响相当,单个模式内部不同成员达到全球平均1.5℃或2℃增温的年份相差2~12年;其影响具有明显的空间差异,影响极大值出现在欧亚大陆以北洋面、白令海峡周围区域、北美东北部及其与格陵兰岛之间的海域、南半球高纬地区等;低排放情景下模式内部变率的影响大于高排放情景。     

A tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones with MM5

A new tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones is put forward and planted into the NCARAFWA tropical cyclone bogussing scheme in MM5. The scheme for the new profile can make full use of the information from routine typhoon reports, including not only the maximum wind, but also the additional information of the wind speeds of 25.7 and 15.4 ms^-1 and their corresponding radii, which are usually provided for strong cyclones. Thus, the new profile can be used to describe the outer structure of cyclones more accurately than by using the earlier scheme of MM5 in which only the maximum wind speed is considered. Numerical experimental forecasts of two strong tropical cyclones are performed to examine the new profile. Results show that by using the new profile the prediction of both cyclones‘ intensity can be obviously improved, but the effects on the track prediction of the two cyclones are different. It seems that the new profile might be more suitable for strong cyclones with shifted tracks. However, the conclusion is drawn from only two typhoon cases, so more cases are needed to evaluate the new profile.     

Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

Variation and pattern in the responses of mammal faunas to Late Pleistocene climatic change in southeastern South Australia

We examined mammal occurrence and variability through the Late Pleistocene vertebrate fossil deposit of Grant Hall in Victoria Fossil Cave, Naracoorte, South Australia. To determine long‐term patterns of change, we compared the composition and relative abundance trends of the assemblage with a nearby Middle Pleistocene deposit in Cathedral Cave. Total species richness did not change through the Grant Hall sequence, dated from 93 ± 8 to 70 ± 5 ka. However, species relative abundances varied between ecologically divergent species, and in some cases between species that demonstrate similar environmental preferences. For some species this variation is comparable to that recorded in Cathedral Cave. Of those showing similar trends between the two deposits, the forest inhabitant, Pseudomys fumeus, recorded an 8.6% decline through Grant Hall, coincident with a 9.7% increase in the dry heath/mallee dweller Pseudomys apodemoides. These patterns indicate that climatic transition from relatively warm, moist to cooler, drier conditions impacted some species in similar ways through climatic cycles of the past. However, the majority of the fauna demonstrated complex responses that are individual and variable through time. Statistical tests of species trends from the Grant Hall assemblage caution that large fossil samples are required to validate patterns observed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Weak ENSO Asymmetry Due to Weak Nonlinear Air–Sea Interaction in CMIP5 Climate Models

State-of-the-art climate models have long-standing intrinsic biases that limit their simulation and projection capabilities.Significantly weak ENSO asymmetry and weakly nonlinear air–sea interaction over the tropical Pacific was found in CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5) climate models compared with observation. The results suggest that a weak nonlinear air–sea interaction may play a role in the weak ENSO asymmetry. Moreover, a weak nonlinearity in air–sea interaction in the models may be associated with the biases in the mean climate—the cold biases in the equatorial central Pacific. The excessive cold tongue bias pushes the deep convection far west to the western Pacific warm pool region and suppresses its development in the central equatorial Pacific. The deep convection has difficulties in further moving to the eastern equatorial Pacific, especially during extreme El Ni o events, which confines the westerly wind anomaly to the western Pacific. This weakens the eastern Pacific El Ni o events, especially the extreme El Ni o events, and thus leads to the weakened ENSO asymmetry in climate models. An accurate mean state structure(especially a realistic cold tongue and deep convection) is critical to reproducing ENSO events in climate models. Our evaluation also revealed that ENSO statistics in CMIP5 climate models are slightly improved compared with those of CMIP3. The weak ENSO asymmetry in CMIP5 is closer to the observation. It is more evident in CMIP5 that strong ENSO activities are usually accompanied by strong ENSO asymmetry, and the diversity of ENSO amplitude is reduced.     

北京西山末次间冰期植被演化与环境变迁研究

末次冰期-间冰期气候旋回研究是过去的全球变化(PAGES)研究的三大重点之一,通过孢粉分析和热释光断代建立了北京西山末次间冰期植被的演化序列,研究了该地区古植被与古环境的演化规律.研究表明:北京末次间冰期植被演化经过了6个阶段,从古到今依次对应深海沉积MIS5e,5d,5c,5b,5a及末次间冰期向末次冰期的过渡期.末次间冰期森林分布于北京西山,暖期发育以鹅耳枥属、榆属、栎属、松属、桦属为主的落叶阔叶林或针阔叶混交林,冷期则主要发育以松科、桦科、蔷薇科、毛茛科、蒿属、菊科为主的森林草甸草原或森林草原,末次间冰期气候由早期的暖湿经过波动变化向温干、凉干演化.5e是末次间冰期的大暖期,其暖湿程度好于5c,5c又好于5a,而5d的气候环境优于5b.在MIS5e阶段北京西山植被的演潜过程可分为5个阶段,揭示气候存在千年时间尺度的不稳定性,5e1为水热组合最佳时期.由末次间冰期向末次冰期过渡的降温时期,存在一次明显的气候回返事件,热释光年龄为78.5～72.5 kaBP.对比研究表明北京西山末次间冰期气候环境与深海沉积、极地冰心记录具有很好的可比性,变化幅度小于极地地区,与黄土高原及青藏高原环境演化具有更大的相似性.     

深海鲣鱼(Katsuwonus pelamis)眼窝油中DHA和EPA的提取及其抗抑郁活性研究

为了探索鲣鱼(Katsuwonus pelamis)鱼头眼窝肉中的DHA(C22:6n3)和EPA(C20:5n3)的抗抑郁活性效果,采用现代食品分离技术分离提取鲣鱼眼窝肉中的DHA和EPA,并对其抗抑郁活性效果进行研究。研究结果发现,当DHA和EPA剂量分别为50,100和300mg/kg时,能够对强迫游泳实验和悬尾实验的小鼠产生抗抑郁作用,其中低剂量(50mg/kg)表现为最活跃。DHA和EPA还能够对引起头抽动综合征的5-羟色胺小鼠产生轻微的增强作用。通过高效液相色谱-电化学法同时测定小鼠大脑区域内主要的单胺类神经递质及其代谢产物。本实验发现,与用压力媒介物处理的小鼠相比,DHA和EPA能够显著增加主要神经递质5-羟色胺和去肾上腺素在小鼠海马体、下丘脑及皮质层中的浓度,并减少5-羟色胺的代谢。DHA和EPA能够在预测抗抑郁特性的动物模型中(强迫游泳实验,悬尾实验)明确其具有抗抑郁活性效果,具有潜在的生物医学应用前景和环保效应。     

利用FG5绝对重力仪观测数据确定重力垂直梯度

本文建立了利用FG5实测数据求解重力垂直梯度的数据处理模型与算法.通过对多次自由落体实验的下落距离拟合残差叠加求均值,发现下落距离观测量中存在明显的有色噪声.通过对有色噪声的建模,并以剩余残差为依据选取可靠的下落时段,解算测站点的重力垂直梯度.利用本文所提出的数据处理方法分别对FG5-214绝对重力仪在两个测站上的观测数据进行处理,以相对重力仪测量的重力垂直梯度结果为参考值,本文处理得到的重力垂直梯度结果相比于未考虑有色噪声并依据经验选取下落时段的解算方法得到了显著改善.

     

Silicate‐oxide mineral chemistry of mafic–ultramafic rocks as an indicator of the roots of an island arc: The Chilas Complex,Kohistan (Pakistan)

The Chilas Complex is a major lower crustal component of the Cretaceous Kohistan island arc and one of the largest exposed slices of arc magma chamber in the world. Covering more than 8000 km², it reaches a current tectonic width of around 40 km. It was emplaced at 85 Ma during rifting of the arc soon after the collision of the arc with the Karakoram plate. Over 85% of the Complex comprises homogeneous, olivine‐free gabbronorite and subordinate orthopyroxene–quartz diorite association (MGNA), which contains bodies of up to 30 km² of ultramafic–mafic–anorthositic association (UMAA) rocks. Primary cumulate textures, igneous layering, and sedimentary structures are well preserved in layered parts of the UMAA in spite of pervasive granulite facies metamorphism. Mineral analyses show that the UMAA is characterized by more magnesian and more aluminous pyroxene and more calcic plagioclase than those in the MGNA. High modal abundances of orthopyroxene, magnetite and ilmenite (in MGNA), general Mg–Fe–Al spatial variations, and an MFA plot of whole‐rock analyses suggest a calc‐alkaline origin for the Complex. Projection of the pyroxene compositions on the Wo–En–Fs face is akin to those of pyroxenes from island arcs gabbros. The presence of highly calcic plagioclase and hornblende in UMAA is indicative of hydrous parental arc magma. The complex may be a product of two‐stage partial melting of a rising mantle diaper. The MGNA rocks represent the earlier phase melting, whereas the UMAA magma resulted from the melting of the same source depleted by the extraction of the earlier melt phase. Some of the massive peridotites in the UMAA may either be cumulates or represent metasomatized and remobilized upper mantle. The Chilas Complex shows similarities with many other (supra)subduction‐related mafic–ultramafic complexes worldwide.     

汶川M_S8.0地震对甘肃陇东地区的破坏影响与特征分析

在汶川MS8.0地震后甘肃陇东地区的详细灾害调查基础上,对该区地震破坏进行了分类研究,给出了各种建筑物及工程结构的破坏程度及破坏特征.结合该区独特的地质地理环境对产生地震破坏的原因进行了分析.认为该区地震破坏相对严重的原因除与建筑物本身质量及结构有关外,还与远震和地形影响的长周期效应及持时较长有关.