Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

CorelDRAW X5中基于VBA实现线渐变的技术研究

主要介绍在CorelDRAWX5中通过VBA的程序开发环境下实现线渐变的方法,通过开发出河流渐变工具,以单线河流渐变为例,解决了通过CorelDRAWX5进行地图制图过程中遇到的单线河流渐变的问题。     

BCC_CSM1.1对10年尺度全球及区域温度的预测研究

近期10～30年时间尺度的年代际预测是第五次耦合模式国际比较计划(CMIP5)重要内容之一.按照CMIP5试验要求,国家气候中心利用气候系统模式BCC_ CSM1.1完成并提交了年代际试验结果.本文评估了该模式年代际试验对10年尺度全球及区域地表温度的预测能力,并通过与20世纪历史气候模拟试验的对比分析,研究模式模拟对海洋初始观测状态的依赖程度.分析结果表明:(1)在有、无海洋初始化条件下,模式均能模拟出1960～2005年间全球10年平均实测地表温度的变暖趋势,但在有海洋初始化条件下,可以明显减小BCC_ CSM1.1模式模拟的全球升温趋势,使得年代际试验比历史试验的结果更接近观测值.这一特     

3mm多普勒云雷达测量反演云内空气垂直速度的研究

垂直指向的W-波段大气云雷达(WACR)不仅测量云粒子的反射率因子Z,而且测量多普勒速度谱.本文利用寿县气象站WACR在2008年11月1日一个时段的测量,进行云内空气垂直速度反演试验.首先讨论个例中反射率、Doppler平均速度及谱宽的分布特征及原因,然后利用小粒子示踪法和改进的以小粒子示踪法为基础的粒子下降速度ω0-反射率因子(ω0-Z)关系法反演了云内空气垂直速度,进而结合Doppler谱数据分析反演结果.结果显示:小粒子示踪法在湍流较弱时能比较精确地反演空气垂直速度,而湍流较强时,湍流造成的误差不可忽略;改进算法在湍流较强时能够减少湍流对反演结果的影响.     

Tracing the 850-Ma continental flood basalts from a piece of subducted continental crust in the North Qaidam UHPM belt,NW China

A Paleozoic ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic (UHPM) belt extends along the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin, North Tibetan Plateau. Eclogites in the Yuka eclogite terrane, northwest part of this UHPM belt, occur as blocks or layers of varying size intercalated with granitic and pelitic gneisses. These eclogites have protoliths geochemically similar to enriched-type mid-ocean ridge basalts (E-MORB) and oceanic island basalts (OIB). On the basis of Ti/Y ratios, they can be divided into low-Ti and high-Ti groups. The low-Ti group (LTG) eclogites exhibit relatively low TiO₂ (most <2.5 wt%) and Ti/Y (<500) but comparatively high Mg# (48–55), whereas the high-Ti group (HTG) eclogites have high TiO₂ (most >2.5 wt%) and Ti/Y (>500) but lower Mg# (46–52). Zircons from two eclogite samples gave a magmatic crystallization (protolith) age of ∼850 Ma and a UHPM age of ∼433 Ma. The occurrence, geochemical features and age data of the Yuka eclogites suggest that their protoliths are segments of continental flood basalts (CFBs) with a mantle plume origin, similar to most typical CFBs. Our observation, together with the tectonic history and regional geologic context, lend support for the large scale onset of mantle plume within the Rodinia supercontinent at ∼850 Ma. The Qaidam block is probably one of the fragments of the Rodinia supercontinent with a volcanic-rifted passive margin. The latter may have been dragged to mantle depths by its subducting leading edge of the oceanic lithosphere in the Early Paleozoic.     

Variation and pattern in the responses of mammal faunas to Late Pleistocene climatic change in southeastern South Australia

We examined mammal occurrence and variability through the Late Pleistocene vertebrate fossil deposit of Grant Hall in Victoria Fossil Cave, Naracoorte, South Australia. To determine long‐term patterns of change, we compared the composition and relative abundance trends of the assemblage with a nearby Middle Pleistocene deposit in Cathedral Cave. Total species richness did not change through the Grant Hall sequence, dated from 93 ± 8 to 70 ± 5 ka. However, species relative abundances varied between ecologically divergent species, and in some cases between species that demonstrate similar environmental preferences. For some species this variation is comparable to that recorded in Cathedral Cave. Of those showing similar trends between the two deposits, the forest inhabitant, Pseudomys fumeus, recorded an 8.6% decline through Grant Hall, coincident with a 9.7% increase in the dry heath/mallee dweller Pseudomys apodemoides. These patterns indicate that climatic transition from relatively warm, moist to cooler, drier conditions impacted some species in similar ways through climatic cycles of the past. However, the majority of the fauna demonstrated complex responses that are individual and variable through time. Statistical tests of species trends from the Grant Hall assemblage caution that large fossil samples are required to validate patterns observed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青藏高原地面有效辐射变化及其对表层土温的影响

利用青藏高原格尔木、狮泉河、昌都日射站及中国科学院冰冻圈观测研究站的观测资料,分析了高原有效辐射的变化,在此基础上结合土壤温度资料讨论了高原北部有效辐射的变化对表层土壤热状况的影响.结果显示：1）青藏高原有效辐射变化因所处的区域不同而异,高原东北部、西部及高原腹地有效辐射总体呈减小的趋势,高原东南部有效辐射呈增大的趋势...     

Numerical Simulation of Wind and Temperature Fields over Beijing Area in Summer

1. IntroductionThe basic role of urban-rural boundary layer re-search is to study all kinds of physical process changesin the atmosphere boundary layer over urban and itssurrounding areas. Urban heat island (UHI) is a well-known feature of urban-rural climate. Attempts toincrease the understanding of the causes of the UHIand other urban-rural boundary layer phenomena haveused observational, theoretical and modelling methodssince long before. Seaman (1989) used a hydrostaticmodel, with real …     

Kinetics of the Gas-Phase Reactions of OH Radicals, NO3 Radicals and O3 with Three C7-Carbonyls Formed From The Atmospheric Reactions of Myrcene, Ocimene and Terpinolene

Rate constants for the gas-phase reactions of OH radicals, NO₃ radicals and O₃ with the C₇-carbonyl compounds 4-methylenehex-5-enal [CH₂=CHC(=CH₂)CH₂CH₂CHO], (3Z)- and (3E)-4-methylhexa-3,5-dienal [CH₂=CHC(CH₃)=CHCH₂CHO] and 4-methylcyclohex-3-en-1-one, which are products of the atmospheric degradations of myrcene, Z- and E-ocimene and terpinolene, respectively, have been measured at 296 ± 2 K and atmospheric pressure of air using relative rate methods. The rate constants obtained (in cm³ molecule^–1 s^–1 units) were: for 4-methylenehex-5-enal, (1.55 ± 0.15) × 10^–10, (4.75 ± 0.35) × 10^–13 and (1.46 ± 0.12) × 10^–17 for the OH radical, NO₃ radical and O₃ reactions, respectively; for (3Z)-4-methylhexa-3,5-dienal: (1.61 ± 0.35) × 10^–10, (2.17 ± 0.30) × 10^–12, and (4.13 ± 0.81) × 10^–17 for the OH radical, NO₃ radical and O₃ reactions, respectively; for (3E)-4-methylhexa-3,5-dienal: (2.52 ± 0.65) × 10^–10, (1.75 ± 0.27) × 10^–12, and (5.36 ± 0.28) × 10^–17 for the OH radical, NO₃ radical and O₃ reactions, respectively; and for 4-methylcyclohex-3-en-1-one: (1.10 ± 0.19) × 10^–10, (1.81 ± 0.35) × 10^–12, and (6.98 ± 0.40) × 10^–17 for the OH radical, NO₃ radical and O₃ reactions, respectively. These carbonyl compounds are all reactive in the troposphere, with daytime reaction with the OH radical and nighttime reaction with the NO₃ radical being predicted to dominate as loss processes and with estimated lifetimes of about an hour or less.     

A tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones with MM5

A new tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones is put forward and planted into the NCARAFWA tropical cyclone bogussing scheme in MM5. The scheme for the new profile can make full use of the information from routine typhoon reports, including not only the maximum wind, but also the additional information of the wind speeds of 25.7 and 15.4 ms^-1 and their corresponding radii, which are usually provided for strong cyclones. Thus, the new profile can be used to describe the outer structure of cyclones more accurately than by using the earlier scheme of MM5 in which only the maximum wind speed is considered. Numerical experimental forecasts of two strong tropical cyclones are performed to examine the new profile. Results show that by using the new profile the prediction of both cyclones‘ intensity can be obviously improved, but the effects on the track prediction of the two cyclones are different. It seems that the new profile might be more suitable for strong cyclones with shifted tracks. However, the conclusion is drawn from only two typhoon cases, so more cases are needed to evaluate the new profile.