煤层气井压裂难易程度预测方法——以韩城区块为例

预测煤层气井的压裂难易程度是制定煤层气井压裂方案的关键问题。目前,国内外还没有形成完善的压裂预测方法。以韩城区块煤层气井的压裂为例,通过测井资料和现场压裂数据,利用SPSS统计分析软件,运用多元逐步回归分析方法进行拟合,得到了煤层气井压裂难易程度预测公式。经过检验,发现该公式预测效果较好,具有一定的参考价值。     

基于STIRPAT模型的甘肃省交通碳排放测算及影响因素分析

依据IPCC清单指南的数据, 采用"自上而下"的碳排放计算方法, 对2000-2013年甘肃省交通碳排放进行测算, 对交通碳排放总量、人均量、交通能源碳排放结构及碳排放强度进行动态分析. 基于STIRPAT模型, 运用岭回归统计方法对甘肃省交通碳排放影响因素进行定量分析. 结果表明: 甘肃省交通碳排放总量和人均碳排放量都呈逐年上升的趋势; 煤炭、汽油、柴油、电力四种能源消费的碳排放量占交通碳排放量的绝大部分; 交通碳排放强度呈下降趋势; 城镇化水平、客运周转量、货运周转量、人均GDP每增长1%, 导致交通碳排放分别增长0.221%、0.137%、0.174%和0.125%. 建设低碳交通体系将成为甘肃省交通部门减碳的有效途径.     

Agricultural production and greenhouse gas emissions from world regions—The major trends over 40 years

Since 1970, global agricultural production has more than doubled with agriculture and land-use change now responsible for ∼1/4 of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Yet, while greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of agricultural product have been reduced at a global level, trends in world regions have been quantified less thoroughly. The KPI (Kaya-Porter Identity) is a novel framework for analysing trends in agricultural production and land-use change and related GHG emissions. We apply this to assess trends and differences in nine world regions over the period 1970–2007. We use a deconstructed analysis of emissions from the mix of multiple sources, and show how each is changing in terms of absolute emissions on a per area and per produced unit basis, and how the change of emissions from each source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. The doubling of global agricultural production has mainly been delivered by developing and transitional countries, and this has been mirrored by increased GHG emissions. The decoupling of emissions from production shows vast regional differences. Our estimates show that emissions per unit crop (as kg CO₂-equivalents per Giga Joule crop product), in Oceania, have been reduced by 94% from 1093 to 69; in Central & South America by 57% from 849 to 362; in sub-Saharan Africa by 27% from 421 to 309, and in Europe by 56% from 86 to 38. Emissions per unit livestock (as kg CO₂-eq. GJ⁻¹ livestock product) have reduced; in sub-Saharan Africa by 24% from 6001 to 4580; in Central & South America by 61% from 3742 to 1448; in Central & Eastern Asia by 82% from 3,205 to 591, and; in North America by 28% from 878 to 632. In general, intensive and industrialised systems show the lowest emissions per unit of agricultural production.     

YRY-4型钻孔应变仪观测的P波剪应变

传统地震仪观测的是一个点的位移随时间的变化, 而应变仪观测的是位移的空间导数随时间的变化。 在四川姑咱台用YRY-4型四分量钻孔应变仪进行的每秒100次采样观测实验, 记录到三次地方震。 在这样高的采样率下, YRY-4型四分量应变仪观测数据保持了令人满意的自洽和足够高的信度。 观测表明, P波的应变不仅有面应变成分, 而且有剪应变成分。 这为澄清P波的性质, 给出了直接的观测证据。 根据弹性波理论, P波无旋转, 可以有体应变和剪应变成分。     

Temporal variability in SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> exposures at Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park,USA

Sulfur dioxide measured at the Visitor’s Center of Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park, USA exhibits seasonal and diurnal patterns and is sensitive to rainfall, but the relationship between wind direction and SO₂ is too inconsistent to support deterministic predictions of hourly SO₂ based on hourly wind direction. Although SO₂ at the Visitor Center has usually been below regulatory levels, high SO₂ levels and adverse health effects remain a concern. This investigation identified patterns in hourly SO₂ based on wind direction, time of day, month, and rainfall occurrence using 4 years of hourly data. Empirical probabilities were investigated using a Bayesian approach. Winds from the volcanic vents were rare, but when they did occur SO₂ was elevated about half of the time. Conversely, half of the hours with elevated SO₂ occurred when volcanic vents were not directly upwind. Episodes of elevated SO₂ tended to occur during the months of November–March and between 8:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. Rainfall was associated with a marked reduction in SO₂ (29–81% depending on wind direction). Individuals that wish to avoid exposure to volcanic fumes can take these patterns into account.     

Ambient biogenic hydrocarbons and isoprene emissions from a mixed deciduous forest

Experiments were conducted during the growing season of 1993 at a mixed deciduous forest in southern Ontario, Canada to investigate the atmospheric abundance of hydrocarbons from phytogenic origins, and to measure emission rates from foliage of deciduous trees. The most abundant phytogenic chemical species found in the ambient air were isoprene and the monoterpenes -pinene and -pinene. Prior to leaf-bud break during spring, ambient hydrocarbon mixing ratios above the forest remained barely above instrument detection limit (20 parts per trillion), but they became abundant during the latter part of the growing season. Peak isoprene mixing ratios reached nearly 10 parts per billion (ppbv) during mid-growing season while maximum monoterpene mixing ratios were close to 2 ppbv. Both isoprene and monoterpene mixing ratios exhibited marked diurnal variations. Typical isoprene mixing ratios were highest during mid-afternoon and were lowest during nighttime. Peak isoprene mixing ratios coincided with maximum canopy temperature. The diurnal pattern of ambient isoprene mixing ratio was closely linked to the local emissions from foliage. Isoprene emission rates from foliage were measured by enclosing branches of trees inside environment-controlled cuvette systems and measuring the gas mixing ratio difference between cuvette inlet and outlet airstream. Isoprene emissions depended on tree species, foliage ontogeny, and environmental factors such as foliage temperature and intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). For instance, young (<1 month old) aspen leaves released approximately 80 times less isoprene than mature (>3 months old) leaves. During the latter part of the growing season the amount of carbon released back to the atmosphere as isoprene by big-tooth and trembling aspen leaves accounted for approximately 2% of the photosynthetically fixed carbon. Significant isoprene mixing ratio gradients existed between the forest crown and at twice canopy height above the ground. The gradient diffusion approach coupled with similarity theory was used to estimate canopy isoprene flux densities. These canopy fluxes compared favorably with values obtained from a multilayered canopy model that utilized locally measured plant microclimate, biomass distribution and leaf isoprene emission rate data. Modeled isoprene fluxes were approximately 30% higher compared to measured fluxes. Further comparisons between measured and modeled canopy biogenic hydrocarbon flux densities are required to assess uncertainties in modeling systems that provide inventories of biogenic hydrocarbons.     

廊固凹陷沙四晚期构造应力场模拟及低级序断层预测

在了解区域构造背景、分析断层活动特征及构造演化特征的基础上,对廊固凹陷沙四晚期构造应力场进行数值模拟,并对低级序断层发育进行预测。研究结果表明,研究区在沙四晚期活动的主要断层包括大兴断层、半截河断层等6条,牛北斜坡构造带与河西务构造带在该时期隆起明显,综合分析可知该时期最小主应力方向为SE144°—NW324°;低级序断层发育受最小主应力、剪应力等的影响,最小主应力和最大主应力与最小主应力的差值控制断层的优势发育区,平面剪应力控制断层走向,该区主要发育北北东—北东走向的断层;剖面剪应力在大部分区域为左旋,表明断层视倾向以北西向为主。     

Description of Ecosystem of the Lower Odra and the Odra Estuary

Environmental conditions of the lower river Odra and its estuary show a high variability of chemical and biological parameters, related to the dynamics of the river, its mouth area, the Lake Dabie-Szczecin Lagoon system, and the Pomeranian Bay. Water chemistry, affected by the total sum of industrial, urban, and agricultural pollution discharged from the direct drainage area is discussed. This pollution load influences the composition and ecological structures of terrestrial, frequently unique, phytal communities associated with aquatic areas, phyto- and zooplankton, benthos, fish fauna, and avifauna. The current status of the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is described; elements of cultural infrastructure existing within the Lower Odra Valley in Western Pomerania are mentioned as well.     

东营凹陷盐家地区沙四上亚段砂砾岩储层岩相与物性关系

依据岩性、粒度、沉积构造等特征,将东营凹陷盐家地区沙四上亚段近岸水下扇砂砾岩体划分为10种岩相类型和13种在一次沉积事件中形成的岩相组合类型,并将其岩相组合类型划分为3大类6小类。针对砂砾岩储层在任一深度物性范围变化较大的问题,遵循"岩相组合类型-岩相类型-距砂泥接触面距离"的研究思路,采用逐步分解的方法,建立"岩相组合类型-岩相类型-距砂泥接触面距离"约束下的物性纵向演化图,结果显示任一深度物性参数变化范围相对较小,各岩相类型储层孔隙度的变化一般为±2%,渗透率的变化一般在一个数量级以内。对比分析各岩相类型物性图可知:随埋深增加,各岩相类型远泥岩部位储层物性整体变差;同一深度,由Ⅰ型岩相类型到Ⅱ型岩相类型物性变好。与远泥岩的各岩相组合底部岩相类型相比,扇中比扇根部位各级别孔隙度和渗透率的深度上限增加了800~1 200 m;与远泥岩的各岩相组合中上部岩相类型相比,扇中比扇根部位各级别孔隙度和渗透率的深度上限增加了1 100~1 650 m。扇中近泥岩部位和扇缘薄层砂因发生强烈胶结作用而使物性变差,在3 400 m以下基本为超低孔超低渗储层。     

集合预报误差在GRAPES全球四维变分同化中的应用研究Ⅰ：局地化方案设计与动力平衡特征分析

通过引入流依赖的集合预报误差,使得同化分析与天气形势紧密相关,是改善初值分析质量的重要途径。文中在GRAPES（Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System）全球四维变分资料同化（4DVar）中研究了如何有效应用集合预报误差,包括增加扩展控制变量时如何降低其计算消耗以及如何在局地化过程中保持不同变量之间的动力平衡。利用高斯分布的谱滤波实现水平局地化,利用垂直正交经验函数分解实现垂直局地化,并采用前8个主导特征模态来限制控制变量空间维数增加。引入20至180个集合样本,在水平二维局地化情形下,控制变量总数的增长可以限制在1.1—1.8倍,而在三维局地化情形下,控制变量总数的增长限制在1.7—7.1倍。对60个集合样本和1°水平分辨率内循环,4DVar引入扩展控制变量后墙钟时间增加了约30%。进一步,通过采用在非平衡分析变量上进行水平局地化,然后再将风压地转平衡关系重新叠加到非平衡分析变量上,使得分析更好地保持了风压平衡关系,初始场地面气压倾向变化减小。此外,虽然垂直局地化对分析平衡影响较大,但依靠目标函数中的数字滤波弱约束,分析变量之间仍能较好满足动力平衡关系。结果表明,GRAPES全球4DVar中发展的增加扩展控制变量、谱滤波实现水平局地化、非平衡分析变量进行水平局地化等有效应用集合预报误差的方法,适合集合样本数超过100个的情况,在分析质量改善的同时,4DVar系统的计算和存储消耗没有显著增加。