Economic consequences of the US withdrawal from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol

Abstract

The US decision not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and the recent outcomes of the Bonn and Marrakech Conferences of the Parties have important implications for both the effectiveness and the efficiency of future climate policies. Among these implications, those related with technical change and with the functioning of the international market for carbon emissions are particularly relevant, because these variables have the largest impact on the overall abatement cost to be borne by Annex B countries in the short and in the long run. This paper analyses the consequences of the US decision to withdraw from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol both on technological innovation and on the price of emission permits (and, as a consequence, on abatement costs). In particular, the analysis highlights mechanisms and feedbacks related to technological innovation, technological spillovers and R&D which could be relevant and which modify some policy relevant conclusions. First, we identify two feedback effects which explain why our results lead to a less significant fall in the price of permits than in most empirical analyses recently circulated. We show that the US defection from the Kyoto Protocol, by inducing a decline in the demand and price of emission permits, lowers the incentives to undertake energy-saving R&D. As a consequence, emissions increase and feed back on the demand and supply of permits, thus implying a lower decline in the price of permits than previously estimated. At the same time, as a result of the reduced R&D investments and the augmented emissions, climate change damages intensify and require an increase in investments that are again coupled with a growth of emissions. By thus again increasing the demand for permits and reducing their supply, this effect enhances the previous mechanism. Notwithstanding the lower decline in the price of permits, the paper still identifies a smaller price than would occur with a US participation. Therefore, we emphasise in a second step the crucial role of Russia in climate negotiations due to a large increase in Russia's bargaining power.     

Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage in River Basins of China Projected by RegCM4

In this study, a historic simulation covering the period from 1951 to 2000 and three projected scenario simulations covering 2001-2050 were conducted employing the regional climate model RegCM4 to detect the changes of terrestrial water storage (TWS) in major river basins of China, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A1B, A2, and B1. The historic simulation revealed that the variations of TWS, which are dominated by precipitation in the basins, rely highly on their climatic features. Compared with the historic simulation, the changes of TWS in the scenario simulations showed strong regional differences. However, for all scenarios, TWS was found to increase most in Northeast China and surrounding mountains around the Tibetan Plateau, and decrease most in eastern regions of China. Unlike the low seasonal variations of TWS in arid areas, the TWS showed strong seasonal variations in eastern monsoon areas, with the maximum changes usually occurring in summer, when TWS increases most in a year. Among the three scenario simulations, TWS increased most in Songhua River Basin of B1 scenario, and de- creased most in Pearl River Basin of A2 scenario and Hai River Basin of A1B scenario, accompanied by different annual trends and seasonal variations.     

FY-4A白天对流风暴和闪电产品在华北强雷暴天气分析中的应用

我国第二代静止气象卫星FY-4A观测能力较之前有明显提升,在天气特别是对流性天气监测和预测中具有较强的应用潜力。利用FY-4A气象卫星多通道扫描辐射成像仪(Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager,AGRI)和闪电成像仪(Lightning Mapping Imager,LMI)数据开展研究,分析了反演产品在强雷暴天气中的应用。研究表明,扫描辐射成像仪多通道组合白天对流风暴红-绿-蓝（red-green-blue,RGB）合成产品可以突出具有强上升气流的对流性雷暴云,较单通道及多通道可见光合成产品具有监测优势;闪电成像仪产品较地面闪电探测闪电产品能够探测到更多的闪电,对新生对流和较弱对流产生的闪电监测具有优势;在华北和黄淮一次强雷暴天气过程中,白天对流风暴RGB合成产品能够监测云系发展的过程,卫星监测闪电活动频数和冰雹活动一致性较好。     

基于MICAPS4的灾害性天气个例检索与训练系统设计及应用

基于气象信息综合分析处理系统(Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System Version 4,MICAPS4),河北省气象台研发团队重新自主设计并开发出一套灾害性天气个例检索与训练系统。该系统通过对历史灾害性天气个例及其资料的整理与保存,实现了个例的检索、分析、训练、收集与管理等功能,解决了历史资料的积累与使用问题;同时,拓展了MICAPS系统的历史资料应用功能。该系统可用于灾害性天气预报预警业务、科研与预报员培训等方面,其可移植性强,具有较好的推广应用前景。     

Quality Assessment of FY-4A Lightning Data in Inland China

The Lightning Mapping Imager (LMI) equipped on the FY-4A (FengYun-4A) geostationary satellite achieves lightning positioning through optical imaging and has the advantages of high temporal resolution, high stability, and continuous observation. In this study, FY-4A LMI lightning event, group and flash data from April to August 2018 are selected, and their quality are assessed through qualitative and quantitative comparison with the ground-based Advanced Time of Arrival and Direction system (ADTD) lightning observation network data and the American International Space Station (ISS) lightning imaging sensor (LIS) data. The results show that the spatial distributions of FY-4A lightning are consistent with those of the ground-based ADTD and ISS LIS. The temporal variation in FY-4A lightning group frequency is consistent with that of ADTD stroke, which reflects that FY-4A LMI can capture the lightning occurrence in inland China. Quantitative statistics show that the consistency rate of FY-4A LMI and ISS LIS events is relatively high but their consistency rate is lower in terms of lightning group and flash data. Compared with the lightning observations by the ISS LIS and the ground-based ADTD, FY-4A LMI reports fewer lightning events in the Tibetan Plateau. The application of Tibetan Plateau lightning data requires further processing and consideration.     

龙陵-瑞丽断裂潞西段的发育特征及意义

研究区位于潞西盆地西侧,设计泛亚铁路西线大理至瑞丽段经过该区.对该区的工程地质特征及其评价工作是作出合理、可靠的工程设计的基础.龙陵-瑞丽断裂是滇西地区一条深切超壳的活动断裂,对该断裂在研究区内的展布及其深部延展情况进行探测尤为重要.本文通过遥感图像(ETM+和SPOT)对断裂进行宏观解译,并在第四系覆盖区利用EH-4...     

多源4He及其积累年龄揭示的深层地下水更新能力——以保定-沧州剖面为例

地下水年龄是重要的水文地质参数,它直接揭示了地下水的循环时间和更新能力.由于不同同位素半衰期不同,导致的测年精度和范围各异,致使华北平原深层地下水年龄存在诸多争议.虽然地下水4He测年方法已经得到应用,但是对地下水中4He多种来源的认识依然不足.通过系统采集和分析华北平原保定-沧州深层地下水中惰性气体含量及其同位素组成...     

东营凹陷沙河街组四段下亚段层序地层特征与沉积模式

近年来东营凹陷南坡沙四下亚段逐渐成为重点勘探目标。由于地层的特殊性,针对研究区层序地层与砂体成因等问题的研究相对薄弱。本次研究采用V-C地层分析法,通过钻井、测井、地震、古生物等资料,将沙四下亚段划分为2个四级层序,根据地层呈叠加样式,将每个层序划分为两个中期旋回。在连井剖面层序对比的基础上建立了研究区沙四段下亚段层序地层格架,受石村断层强烈翘倾的影响,南坡东部地区沙四下顶部大面积剥蚀。该时期主要发育冲积扇和咸水湖等主要相类型,本文首次系统分析了东营凹陷南坡沙四段下亚段沉积相的演化与分布规律,建立了沙四段下亚段的沉积模式,这对于指导研究区的油气勘探具有重要意义。     

EH4电磁系统在西南抗旱救灾找水中的应用

介绍了利用EH4电磁系统在云南红河地区某村庄的找水成果,遵循"从已知到未知"的原则,紧密结合地质资料,布置物探工作,获得完整的物探资料,作出较合理的解释,取得了较好的找水效果。     

缘管浒苔和羽藻氮、磷营养生理学研究

以无性繁殖系为材料,开展了缘管浒苔和羽藻对NO₃-,NH₄+和PO₄3-的吸收动力学、生长动力学研究。吸收动力学研究结果表明缘管浒苔和羽藻对NO₃- 和PO₄3-的吸收方式为主动运输,对NH₄+的吸收方式为被动扩散。缘管浒苔对NO₃-的最大吸收速率(V_max)、对NH₄+的吸收斜率都大于羽藻,说明缘管浒苔对高浓度的NO₃-和NH₄+具有更强的吸收能力。缘管浒苔吸收NO₃-和NH₄+的a值远大于羽藻,说明在低营养盐浓度时,缘管浒苔对NO₃-和NH₄+的亲和力更强。在PO₄3-的吸收中,羽藻的最大吸收速率(V_max)远大于缘管浒苔,说明羽藻对高浓度PO₄3-的吸收能力更强,但缘管浒苔的a值远大于羽藻,说明前者在低营养盐浓度时PO₄3-的亲和力更强。生长动力学研究结果表明,硝酸氮是促进两种海藻快速生长的最适宜氮源形式,氨氮更易促进藻体叶绿素的积累。在相同氮营养条件下,羽藻表现出比缘管浒苔更强的生长优势。