基于改进FCLS算法的南极海冰密集度估算及算法比较

海冰具有良好的热力隔绝效应,它通过影响海洋和大气的热交换进而影响全球的气候变化。海冰密集度是极区海冰研究的重要指标之一。为实现高空间分辨率多类型海冰密集度的估算,本文将亮温极化梯度率和光谱梯度率引入基于全约束最小二乘法(fully constrained least squares,FCLS)的海冰密集度估算方法,并利用南极海冰过程与气候计划(Antarctic Sea Ice Processes and Climate,ASPe Ct)对改进方法的精度进行验证,然后与NASA Team2(NT2)算法和ARTIST Sea Ice(ASI)算法获得的海冰密集度结果进行了对比分析。结果显示,3种算法中本研究的方法精度最高,全年均方差13.8%,偏差为-0.7%;改进的方法对多年冰的估算精度优于一年冰。     

寒旱环境盐胁迫条件下两种草本植物的根系力学特性研究

本项研究选取适宜于西宁盆地及其周边地区生长的2种优势草本植物垂穗披碱草(Elymus nutans Griseb)和细茎冰草(Agropyron trachycaulum (Linn.) Gaertn.)作为供试种,通过室内种植培育方式,采用浓度梯度分别为50mmol/L、100mmol/L、150mmol/L、200mmol/L的Na₂SO₄溶液对2种植物进行盐胁迫处理。在盐胁迫试验处理后的第15d、30d和45d时,分别测定2种植物单根抗拉力和单根抗拉强度。试验结果表明：相同盐胁迫浓度时,2种植物单根抗拉力随生长期增长呈逐渐增大,单根抗拉强度随生长期增加表现为逐渐降低的变化规律;相同生长期时,2种植物单根抗拉力随着胁迫液浓度由0mmol/L增加至200mmol/L时表现为逐渐减小趋势,单根抗拉强度则随着胁迫液浓度增加呈逐渐增大的变化规律;进一步研究表明,在相同胁迫浓度和相同生长期条件下,细茎冰草单根抗拉力和单根抗拉强度分别较垂穗披碱草高0.008N~0.025N和9.646MPa~72.807MPa;2种草本植物单根抗拉力与根径之间呈指数函数关系;2种草本单根抗拉强度分别随根径的增加而逐渐减小,且均与根径呈幂函数关系。本该研究成果对于进一步探讨寒旱环境盐胁迫条件下,草本植物根系力学强度特征及其变化规律具有重要理论研究价值,同时对于有效防治研究区水土流失、浅层滑坡等地质灾害的发生具有实际指导意义。     

Quantitative analysis of the impact factors of conventional energy carbon emissions in Kazakhstan based on LMDI decomposition and STIRPAT model

Quantitative analysis of the impact factors in energy-related CO₂ emissions serves as an important guide for reducing carbon emissions and building an environmentally-friendly society. This paper aims to use LMDI method and a modified STIRPAT model to research the conventional energy-related CO₂ emissions in Kazakhstan after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The results show that the trajectory of CO₂ emissions displayed U-shaped curve from 1992 to 2013. Based on the extended Kaya identity and additive LMDI method, we decomposed total CO₂ emissions into four influencing factors. Of those, the economic active effect is the most influential factor driving CO₂ emissions, which produced 110.86 Mt CO₂ emissions, with a contribution rate of 43.92%. The second driving factor is the population effect, which led to 11.87 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of 4.7%. On the contrary, the energy intensity effect is the most inhibiting factor, which caused–110.90 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of–43.94%, followed by the energy carbon structure effect resulting in–18.76 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of–7.43%. In order to provide an in-depth examination of the change response between energy-related CO₂ emissions and each impact factor, we construct a modified STIRPAT model based on ridge regression estimation. The results indicate that for every 1% increase in population size, economic activity, energy intensity and energy carbon structure, there is a subsequent increase in CO₂ emissions of 3.13%, 0.41%, 0.30% and 0.63%, respectively.     

A method to obtain soil-moisture estimates over bare agricultural fields in arid areas by using multi-angle RADARSAT-2 data

Soil moisture is an important parameter for agriculture, meteorological, and hydrological studies. This paper focuses on soil-moisture estimation methodology based on the multi-angle high-and low-incidence-angle mode RADARSAT-2 data obtained over bare agricultural fields in an arid area. Backscattering of the high-and low-incidence angles is simulated by using AIEM(advanced integral equation model), with the surface-roughness estimation model built based on the simulated data. Combining the surface-roughness estimation model with the backscattering model of the low-incidence-angle mode, a soil-moisture estimation method is put forward. First, the natural logarithm(ln) of soil moisture was obtained and then the soil moisture calculated. Soil moisture of the study area in Dunhuang, Gansu Province, was obtained based on this method; a good agreement was observed between the estimated and measured soil moisture. The coefficient of determination was 0.85, and the estimation precision reached 4.02% in root mean square error(RMSE). The results illustrate the high potential of the approach developed and RADARSAT-2 data to monitor soil moisture.     

Record Low Sea-Ice Concentration in the Central Arctic during Summer 2010

The Arctic sea-ice extent has shown a declining trend over the past 30 years. Ice coverage reached historic minima in 2007 and again in 2012. This trend has recently been assessed to be unique over at least the last 1450 years. In the summer of 2010, a very low sea-ice concentration(SIC) appeared at high Arctic latitudes—even lower than that of surrounding pack ice at lower latitudes. This striking low ice concentration—referred to here as a record low ice concentration in the central Arctic(CARLIC)—is unique in our analysis period of 2003–15, and has not been previously reported in the literature. The CARLIC was not the result of ice melt, because sea ice was still quite thick based on in-situ ice thickness measurements.Instead, divergent ice drift appears to have been responsible for the CARLIC. A high correlation between SIC and wind stress curl suggests that the sea ice drift during the summer of 2010 responded strongly to the regional wind forcing. The drift trajectories of ice buoys exhibited a transpolar drift in the Atlantic sector and an eastward drift in the Pacific sector,which appeared to benefit the CARLIC in 2010. Under these conditions, more solar energy can penetrate into the open water,increasing melt through increased heat flux to the ocean. We speculate that this divergence of sea ice could occur more often in the coming decades, and impact on hemispheric SIC and feed back to the climate.     

二维切换系统FM状态空间模型的耗散稳定性分析与镇定控制

针对二维切换系统的Fornasini-Marchesini（FM）状态空间模型,对系统耗散稳定性以及耗散镇定控制器的设计问题进行研究.首先,根据系统模型的特点,给出了二维系统（T,S,R）-δ-耗散性的定义,并提出二维切换系统渐近稳定和满足（T,S,R）-δ-耗散性的充分条件;然后利用稳定性条件和投影引理,设计了二维（T,S,R）-δ-耗散状态反馈控制器.最后,通过一个数值实例来验证所设计控制器的有效性.     

BCC S2S模式对亚洲夏季风准双周振荡预报评估

利用1994-2013年ERA-Interim及NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,对国家气候中心（BCC）次季节到季节尺度模式（S2S）1994-2013年的回报试验数据进行亚洲季风区准双周振荡（QBWO）预报能力评估,并诊断模式预报误差来源。结果表明:BCC S2S模式对QBWO的预报能力随着预报提前时间的增长而降低,9 d后预报技巧明显减弱,其周期、传播特征和强度出现误差;在提前9 d预报中,印度洋地区QBWO对流-环流系统结构松散,信号偏弱,对流向东传播,这与印度洋平均态的预报误差有关,夏季对流平均态低层水汽场在西太平洋和阿拉伯海较强,而东印度洋、孟加拉湾一带偏弱;西北太平洋地区QBWO具有向西北传播的特征,但强度偏弱,可能原因是预报低估了QBWO对流西北侧低层涡度的超前信号,经涡度方程诊断发现,地转涡度平流正贡献微弱,相对涡度平流在对流西北侧引发负涡度,从而减弱了对流西北侧由低层正涡度引发的有利条件。     

VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH PM2.5 CONCENTRATION OVER CHINA

The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) was calculated using the radiosonde sounding data, including 120 L-band operational sites and 8 GPS sites in China. The diurnal and seasonal variations of PBLH were analyzed using radiosonde sounding (OBS-PBLH) and ERA data (ERA-PBLH). Based on comparison and error analyses, we discussed the main error sources in these data. The frequency distributions of PBLH variations under different regimes (the convective boundary layer, the neutral residual layer, and the stable boundary layer) can be well fitted by a Gamma distribution and the shape parameter k and scale parameter s values were obtained for different regions of China. The variation characteristics of PBLH were found in summer under these three regimes for different regions. The relationships between PBLH and PM2.5 concentration generally follow a power law under very low or no precipitation conditions in the region of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in summer. The results usually deviated from this power distribution only under strong precipitation or high relative humidity conditions because of the effects of hygroscopic growth of aerosols or wet deposition. The OBS-PBLH provided a reasonable spatial distribution relative to ERA-PBLH. This indicates that OBS-PBLH has the potential for identifying the variation of PM2.5 concentration.     

云凝结核浓度对北京一次降水过程影响的数值模拟

利用WRF v3.6.1模式,采用Thompson云微物理参数化方案对北京奥运会期间的一次降水过程进行了模拟,通过3组数值试验对比分析了高、中、低云凝结核浓度对降水的影响。数值试验结果显示:(1)在云凝结核浓度较低的情况下,云凝结核浓度增加使24 h累积降水量增加,且增加的幅度相对较低;在云凝结浓度较高的情况下,云凝结核浓度增加使24 h累积降水量减少,且减少的幅度相对较高。(2)从地面雨强分布来看,不同的云凝结核浓度对暴雨、大雨、中雨、小雨的影响均体现在降水强度上,对降水位相的影响不显著。(3)云凝结核浓度的变化对低云量的影响与其对降水的影响相一致,故低云量是影响降水的一个重要因素。     

The impact of the Tokyo Metropolitan Emissions Trading Scheme on reducing greenhouse gas emissions: findings from a facility-based study

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the Tokyo Metropolitan Emissions Trading Scheme (Tokyo ETS), Japan’s first emissions trading scheme with mandatory cap initiated by the government of Tokyo. Unlike trading schemes in other countries, the Tokyo ETS covers indirect emissions from the commercial sector. It is well known that a variety of market barriers impede full realization of energy efficiency opportunities, especially in the commercial sector. Experiences with the Tokyo ETS should therefore provide important lessons for the design of climate change mitigation policies, especially when targeting the commercial sector. The emissions from covered entities have been drastically reduced from those at the scheme’s outset, with an average 14% reduction as of the end of the first commitment period of five years (2010–2014) compared with 2009 levels. This paper shows that the Tokyo ETS alone did not cause these reductions; there were other drivers. Among them, the energy savings triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 were crucial. The contribution of credit trading, in contrast, was limited since most of the covered entities reduced emissions by themselves. Through an investigation of official reports, an assessment of the emissions data from the covered entities compared to those of uncovered entities and in-depth interviews with firms covered by the scheme, this paper confirms that the main drivers of emissions reductions by covered entities were separate from the ETS. In fact, the advisory aspect of the scheme seems to be much more important in encouraging energy-saving actions.

Key policy insights

• Most of the observed emission reductions were not caused by the Tokyo ETS alone.

• An advisory instrument was crucial to the effectiveness of the Tokyo ETS.

• The experience of the Tokyo ETS suggests that making full use of the advantages of emissions trading is difficult in the case of the commercial sector.

• Price signals have not provided a stimulus to climate change mitigation actions, which implies that establishing a cap to yield effective carbon prices poses a challenge.