新疆43a来夏季0℃层高度变化和突变分析

采用1960-2002年新疆11个探空站逐日观测资料,按气候特点和径流情况把新疆划分为阿尔泰山西坡,天山北坡,天山南坡,昆仑山北坡,北疆西部5个区域,分析了43a来新疆夏季0℃层平均高度变化趋势和空间分布差异.结果表明:新疆夏季0℃层平均高度43a来总体呈上升趋势,20世纪60年代经历了一个明显下降的阶段,70年代变化相对平缓,80年代初开始上升,90年代初以后上升明显,表现为突升,但均未发生显著气候突变.新疆除了昆仑山北坡0℃层下降外,其余均为明显升高;升幅从南向北、从西向东增加.尽管各地变化不尽相同,但80年代初至今的上升趋势和90年代初期开始的涌升现象较为一致.0℃层高度的上升意味着高空中低层大气气温在升高,说明新疆近年来不仅近地面气温在升高,高空同样气温在变暖.     

Modelling the effects of changes in rainfall event characteristics on TSS loads in urban runoff

The effect of changes in rainfall event characteristics on urban stormwater quality, which was described by total suspended solids (TSS), was studied by means of computer simulations conducted with the Storm Water Management Model for a climate change scenario for northern Sweden. The simulation results showed that TSS event loads depended mainly on rainfall depth and intensity, but not on antecedent conditions. Storms with low‐to‐intermediate depths and intensities showed the highest sensitivity to changes in rainfall input, both for percentage and absolute changes in TSS wash‐off loads, which was explained by the contribution of pervious areas and supply limitations. This has significant implications for stormwater management, because those relatively frequent events generally carry a high percentage of the annual pollutant load. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国陆港型物流枢纽时空演化及其驱动因素

从多维度解析陆港型物流枢纽的发展机理,运用2001―2018年面板数据测度中国陆港型物流枢纽的综合发展实力,并采用空间分析、基尼系数等方法揭示枢纽的空间格局及演化特征,探究中国陆港型物流枢纽发展的主要驱动因素。研究发现：① 枢纽实力在胡焕庸线两侧呈现明显的分异特征,东南部地区枢纽总体比西北部地区发展更成熟、更稳定;② 枢纽发展的空间差异较为明显,且差异程度在不断增加;③ 基础设施和物流运营对枢纽的基尼系数贡献较大,但信息技术的影响提升更加明显;④ 人口规模、金融发展和外部环境因素促进枢纽发展,经济实力、教育水平和政府投资对不同等级枢纽的影响不尽相同。     

Identifying sources of groundwater in the lower Colorado River valley, USA, with δ18O, δD, and 3H: implications for river water accounting

Isotope measurements (¹⁸O, D, ³H) indicate groundwater origin in the Lower Colorado River Valley (LCRV) and provide an alternative, or supplement, to the US Bureau of Reclamations proposed accounting surface method. The accounting surface method uses a hydraulic criterion to identify certain wells away from the flood plain that will eventually yield mainstream Colorado River water. New isotope data for 5 surface-water and 18 groundwater sites around Topock Marsh, Arizona, are compared with river-water data (1974–2002) from 11 sites between Utah and Mexico and with groundwater data from previous LCRV studies. Three groundwater sources are repeatedly identified in the LCRV: (1) local recharge derived from precipitation, usually winter rain, plots slightly below the global meteoric water line (GMWL) and has D values that are 20 greater than those of recent river water; (2) older (pre-1950) upper basin river-water plots on or near the GMWL, distinct from local rainfall and recent river water; and (3) recent (post-1950) Colorado River water, including Topock Marsh samples, plots below the GMWL along an evaporation trend. Large floods, as in 1983, complicate interpretation by routing less evaporated upper basin water into the LCRV; however, tritium content can indicate the age of a water. River-water tritium has declined steadily from its peak of 716 TU in 1967 to about 11 TU in 2002. Mixtures of all three groundwater sources are common.

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Resumen Mediciones isotópicas (¹⁸O, D, ³H) indican cual es el origen del agua subterránea en el Valle Bajo del Río Colorado (LCRV) y aportan una alternativa, o complemento, para el método superficie de conteo propuesto por el Buró de Reclamación de Estados Unidos. El método superficie de conteo utiliza un criterio hidráulico para identificar ciertos pozos alejados de la planicie de inundación que eventualmente producirán agua a partir de la corriente principal del Río Colorado. Los nuevos datos isotópicos para 18 sitios de agua subterránea y 5 sitios de agua superficial cerca de los Pantanos Topock, Arizona, se comparan con datos de agua de río (1974–2002) provenientes de 11 sitios localizados entre Utah y México, y con datos de aguas subterráneas de estudios previos realizados en el LCRV. Se identifican reiteradamente tres fuentes de aguas subterráneas en el LCRV: (1) recarga local derivada de precipitación, generalmente lluvia de invierno, cuya composición cae ligeramente por debajo de la línea de agua meteórica global (GMWL) y tiene valores D que son 20 mayores que los reportados para agua de río reciente; (2) el agua de río más vieja (pre-1950) de la cuenca alta cuya composición cae sobre o cerca de la GMWL, diferente de la lluvia local y del agua de río reciente; (3) agua reciente (post-1950) del Río Colorado, incluyendo muestras de los Pantanos Topock, con composición por debajo de la GMWL a lo largo de una tendencia a la evaporación. Inundaciones grandes, como en 1983, complican la interpretación al transmitir menos agua evaporada de la cuenca alta hacia el LCRV; sin embargo, el contenido de tritio puede indicar la edad del agua. El contenido de tritio en agua de río ha disminuido constantemente desde la concentración pico de 716 TU en 1967 a cerca de 11 TU en 2002. Es común que exista mezclas de las tres fuentes de agua subterránea.

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Résumé Les mesures isotopiques (d18O, dD, 3H) indiquent les origine de leaux souterraines dans la Vallée de la Rivière du Bas Colorado (LCRV) et sont une alternative, ou un supplément, à la méthode des bilans hydrologiques proposée par du «US Bureau of Reclamation». Cette méthode de bilan hydrologique utilise un critère hydraulique permettant didentifier certains puits hors de la plaine dinondation qui pomperaient une part non négligeable de leur eau dans la rivière Colorado. De nouvelles données isotopiques provenant de 5 sites deau de surface et 18 deaux souterraines autour de Topock Marsh en Arizona, sont comparées avec les données (1974–2000) de 11 sites localisés entre Utah et Mexico, ainsi que des données dautres études sur la LCRV. Ces sources deaux souterraines sont identifiées à plusieurs reprises dans la LCRV: (1) la recharge locale dérivant des précipitations, généralement les pluies hivernales, se retrouvent légèrement sous la ligne deau météoritique globale (GMWL) et possède des valeurs de dD 20% supérieures aux valeurs des eaux récentes de la rivière; (2) les eaux vieilles (pre-1950) du bassin supérieur de la rivière possèdent une valeurs très proches de la GMWL, distinctes des valeurs de la pluie locale et des eaux récentes de la rivière; et (3) les eaux récentes (post-1950) de la Rivière Colorado, incluant les échantillons de Topock Marsh, se positionnent à côté de la GMWL sur une droite dévaporation. Les grandes inondations, par exemple celle de 1983, compliquent linterprétation en reprenant dans la LCRV moins deaux marquées comme évaporées et provenant du bassin supérieur; par ailleurs le pic de tritium est descendu de 716 TU en 1967 à 11 TU en 2002. Les mélanges de ces trois sources sont assez fréquentes.

     

海区尺度港航地图集的内容设计——以《中国北方枢纽港港航地图集》为例

《中国北方枢纽港港航地图集》是首部以中国北方海区枢纽港港口经济和航海保障为主题的区域性港航地图集。从制图区域、指标体系、内容框架等方面入手,探讨了海区尺度港航地图集的内容设计特点,展现了港产城一体、陆海统筹等区域港口经济的本质特征,为今后同类地图集的制作提供新的思路和参考。     

Economic consequences of the US withdrawal from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol

Abstract

The US decision not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and the recent outcomes of the Bonn and Marrakech Conferences of the Parties have important implications for both the effectiveness and the efficiency of future climate policies. Among these implications, those related with technical change and with the functioning of the international market for carbon emissions are particularly relevant, because these variables have the largest impact on the overall abatement cost to be borne by Annex B countries in the short and in the long run. This paper analyses the consequences of the US decision to withdraw from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol both on technological innovation and on the price of emission permits (and, as a consequence, on abatement costs). In particular, the analysis highlights mechanisms and feedbacks related to technological innovation, technological spillovers and R&D which could be relevant and which modify some policy relevant conclusions. First, we identify two feedback effects which explain why our results lead to a less significant fall in the price of permits than in most empirical analyses recently circulated. We show that the US defection from the Kyoto Protocol, by inducing a decline in the demand and price of emission permits, lowers the incentives to undertake energy-saving R&D. As a consequence, emissions increase and feed back on the demand and supply of permits, thus implying a lower decline in the price of permits than previously estimated. At the same time, as a result of the reduced R&D investments and the augmented emissions, climate change damages intensify and require an increase in investments that are again coupled with a growth of emissions. By thus again increasing the demand for permits and reducing their supply, this effect enhances the previous mechanism. Notwithstanding the lower decline in the price of permits, the paper still identifies a smaller price than would occur with a US participation. Therefore, we emphasise in a second step the crucial role of Russia in climate negotiations due to a large increase in Russia's bargaining power.     

考虑K0固结的软土基坑工程三维非线性有限元分析

为考虑基坑工程的空间效应,土体分别采用K0固结和正常固结试样固结不排水(CU)试验得到的Duncan-Chang非线性弹性模型和Mohr-Coulomb理想弹塑性模型,运用ABAQUS软件按照三维实体单元、壳单元、梁单元考虑接触相互作用的耦合有限元法,建立了福州市一典型软土基坑工程整体三维有限元分析模型,对基坑施工的各工况下整个体系的响应进行了数值模拟"目标试验",并与实测结果和二维数值模拟结果进行了比较,结果表明,采用K0固结试样CU试验参数的Duncan-Chang模型对该基坑进行的三维非线性数值模拟分析方法是较为可靠的,较之Mohr-Coulomb理想弹塑性模型和二维有限元分析,其结果的优势是明显的,是值得推崇和具有较好应用价值的方法。     

Accurate and High‐Precision Determination of Boron Isotopic Ratios at Low Concentration by MC‐ICP‐MS (Neptune)

We report an approach for the accurate and reproducible measurement of boron isotope ratios in natural waters using an MC‐ICP‐MS (Neptune) after wet chemistry sample purification. The sample matrix can induce a drastic shift in the isotopic ratio by changing the mass bias. It is shown that, if no purification is carried out, the direct measurement of a seawater diluted one hundred times will induce an offset of ?7‰ in the isotopic ratio, and that, for the same concentration, the greater the atomic mass of the matrix element, the greater the bias induced. Whatever the sample, it is thus necessary to remove the matrix. We propose a method adapted to water samples allowing purification of 100 ng of boron with a direct recovery of boron in 2 ml of 3% v/v HNO₃, which was our working solution. Boron from the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA‐B1 seawater reference material and from the two groundwater reference materials IAEA‐B2 and IAEA‐B3, was chemically purified, as well as boron from the certified reference material NIST SRM 951 as a test. The reproducibility of the whole procedure (wet chemistry and MC‐ICP‐MS measurement) was ± 0.4‰ (2s). Accuracy was verified by comparison with positive‐TIMS values and with recommended values. Seawater, being homogeneous for boron isotope ratios, is presently the only natural water material that is commonly analysed for testing accuracy worldwide. We propose that the three IAEA natural waters could be used as reference samples for boron isotopes, allowing a better knowledge of their isotopic ratios, thus contributing to the certification of methods and improving the quality of the boron isotopic ratio measurements for all laboratories.     

Biomass production, evapotranspiration and water use efficiency of arid rangelands in the Northern Cape, South Africa

Annual above-ground net primary production (ANPP), evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency (WUE) of rangeland have the potential to provide an objective basis for establishing pricing for ecosystem services. To provide estimates of ANPP, we surveyed the biomass, estimated ET and prepared a water use efficiency for dwarf shrublands and arid savanna in the Riemvasmaak Rural Area, Northern Cape, South Africa. The annual production fraction was surveyed in 33 MODIS 1 km² pixels and the results regressed against the MODIS f_PAR product. This regression model was used to predict the standing green biomass (kg DM ha⁻¹) for 2009 (dry year). Using an approach which combines potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) and the MODIS f_PAR product, we estimated actual evapotranspiration (ET_a). These two models (greening standing biomass and ET_a) were used to calculate the annual WUE for 2009. WUE was 1.6 kg DM mm⁻¹ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. This value may be used to provide an estimate of ANPP in the absence of direct measurements of biomass and to provide a comparison of the water use efficiency of this rangeland with other rangeland types.     

Validation of turbulence closure parameterisations for stably stratified flows using the PROVESS turbulence measurements in the North Sea

A number of parameterisations for the simulation of mixing processes in the thermocline are compared and tested against the microstructure data of the PROVESS campaigns, conducted in the northern part of the North Sea during the autumn of 1998. The transport term in the turbulent kinetic energy equation is parameterised via the introduction of a third stability function S_k for turbulent energy diffusion. The formulations are compared with a simpler scheme based upon limiting conditions for turbulence variables. Improved results are obtained with a new form of S_k. The best agreement is, however, found with the simpler limiting scheme. This is explained in terms of a turbulence length scale theory for stably stratified turbulence. In agreement with previous laboratory and ocean data it is found that the ratios of the Thorpe and Kolmogorov scales to the Ozmidov length scale approach critical limiting values in the thermocline. The first of these conditions is satisfied when limiting conditions are implemented into the scheme, providing the necessary minimum value for the dissipation rate, whereas the schemes without limiting conditions fail to produce this critical ratio. The basic reason for this failure is that the Thorpe scale is overestimated, which is shown to be connected to an even larger overprediction of the dissipation rate of temperature variance. To investigate the impact of non-resolved advective processes and salinity stratification on the turbulence predictions, additional numerical experiments were conducted using a simple scheme for data assimilation. The best agreement is found again with the limiting scheme, which is able to make reasonable predictions for the dissipation rate without knowing the detailed shape of the mean stratification profile. It is shown that advective transport due to tidally and wind-driven motions has a non-negligible impact on vertical mixing. This is seen in the data and the models by periodic enhancements of turbulent mixing inside the thermocline.