基于南海定点观测数据的强风场特性研究

为了满足我国海洋工程抗风设计需求,在南海某海洋平台定点开展了原型测量工作。通过对海面上82 m和29 m两处开展实测工作,获得了冬季寒潮和超强台风"尤特"影响下的风场现场实测数据。利用非平稳过程分析方法对两类强风过程的脉动风分量、湍流强度、阵风因子、湍流积分尺度和脉动风谱等风场特性进行了分析。验证了脉动风分布的高斯性,给出了湍流强度与阵风因子的非线性拟合参数,分析了不同高度处风场特性剖面变化规律,证明了脉动风实测谱与Von Karman经验谱的良好拟合关系。     

影响辽东半岛两次相似路径台风对比分析

1109号台风“梅花”和1215号台风“布拉万”是自黄海海域北上影响辽东半岛的台风,两次台风降雨量和风力的预报均出现偏差。利用常规气象资料、加密气象自动观测站资料及NCEP再分析资料对两次台风过程进行对比分析。结果表明：500 hPa中高纬度110°-120°E附近低槽、鄂霍次克海阻塞高压、副热带高压强度和形状的改变及北方冷空气对台风北上路径和强度有重要影响。北方冷空气对北上台风引起的降雨十分关键,降雨主要由台风外围螺旋雨带造成。日本海高压伸向中国东北地区的高压脊对大风的形成有重要作用,台风登陆后影响时间的长短与登陆后冷空气的配合有密切关系。     

用福建连续重力资料研究台风“麦德姆”活动特征

福建省地处我国东南沿海,每年5—10月都会受到台风的侵袭,目前建有厦门、漳州、福州三个连续重力观测台站。以2014年第10号强台风"麦德姆"为例,利用重力观测资料研究:(1)台风引起的地脉动信号的强度和卓越频率的变化规律;(2)台风卓越周期与台风强度和移动速度的关系;(3)连续重力资料非潮汐信息提取。结果表明:(1)台风靠近台站时地脉动信号增强,登陆后迅速减弱,福州台记录的信号卓越频率要比其他台站高;(2)台风卓越周期与台风强度和台风移动速度的关系比较复杂;(3)用现代滤波器能有效滤除长期存在的干扰信号。     

The four dimensional variational data assimilation with multiple regularization parameters as a weak constraint (Tikh-4D-Var) and its preliminary application on typhoon initialization

Traditional variational data assimilation (VDA) with only one regularization parameter constraint cannot produce optimal error tuning for all observations. In this paper, a new data assimilation method of “four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) with multiple regularization parameters as a weak constraint (Tikh-4D-Var)” is proposed by imposing different regularization parameters for different observations. Meanwhile, a new multiple regularization parameters selection method, which is suitable for actual high-dimensional data assimilation system, is proposed based on the posterior information of 4D-Var system. Compared with the traditional single regularization parameter selection method, computation of the proposed multiple regularization parameters selection method is smaller. Based on WRF3.3.1 4D-Var data assimilation system, initialization and simulation of typhoon Chaba (2010) with the new Tikh-4D-Var method are compared with its counterpart 4D-Var to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new method. Results show that the new Tikh-4D-Var method can accelerate the convergence with less iterations. Moreover, compared with 4D-Var method, the typhoon track, intensity (including center surface pressure and maximum wind speed) and structure prediction are obviously improved with Tikh-4D-Var method for 72-h prediction. In addition, the accuracy of the observation error variances can be reflected by the multiple regularization parameters.     

清代长江三角洲地区重大台风的对比分析

文章从清代的地方志、档案等文献史料中提取台风灾害信息并整理分类,根据台风及其次数的判断依据识别出清前期长江三角洲地区存在7次重大台风灾害,对这7次台风事件从台风过程、灾害分布与路径等方面进行了重建和对比分析。研究结果表明：清前期长三角地区的7次重大台风都发生于农历的六月、七月和八月,正值潮汛期,危害极大;台风过程持续时间短,一般在2~3 d左右。7次重大台风集中分布在浙江的杭州湾附近和长江下游流域两岸,主要在上海市的崇明、奉贤,浙江的余姚、嘉善等沿海地区登陆,然后沿岸向西北方向路径移动,与现代台风路径相比,接近于西北路径型或向北路径。在不同时空背景下台风对区域社会影响存在一定的差异性。     

季风热带与亚热带地区的遥感应用实验

1 遥感应用实验的历史经验 20世纪末,在中国南方热带、亚热带地区,由原国家科委、科技部和中国科学院先后组织过多次大型遥感应用实验。例如,海南岛三次航空遥感系列专题制图(1963),一次富铁遥感找矿(1972),腾冲资源遥感(1978),二滩、龙滩水电站工程地质评估 (1980)、洞庭、鄱阳湖洪涝灾害监测(1991,1998), 三峡生态移民(1990-),广东鼎湖山自然保护区生物地球化学指示植被(1987),SIR-CR-SAR生态与环境综合分析(1997)、香港、航空微波遥感实验飞行与城市环境太空影像地图集编制(1999)等。     

登陆海南岛台风季节特征的对比分析

通过对2003年盛夏(8月份)和晚秋(11月份)登陆海南岛的两个台风个例进行了大尺度环流背景、台风暴雨产生的大尺度条件、中尺度特征等方面的对比分析,揭示盛夏和晚秋登陆海南岛台风路径和暴雨的一般特性,并对其成因进行了探讨。     

Response of bedload transport, submarine topography, and dune internal structures to typhoon processes off Dongfang coast in the Beibu Gulf

Bedload sediment transport was estimated by the SEDTRANS96 model based on three-day hydrodynamics data obtained off the Dongfang coast in the Beibu Gulf during Typhoon Ketsana in September 2009. Bedforms on the sea floor off the Dongfang coast and internal structures of a typical dune were interpreted to evaluate storm influences on individual dunes and the dune field. Results indicated that flow forcings and related bedload transport were both strengthened significantly due to Typhoon Ketsana. The measurements and modeling results, which mainly included three different stages, presented noticeable phasic variation. The three stages were dominated by tidal current (Period Ⅰ), tidal current combined with wind-induced waves (Period Ⅱ), and swells combined with tidal current and seaward flows (Period Ⅲ). This phasic variation could be a common trait of hydrodynamics due to typhoons moving westwardly to the south of Hainan Island and Beibu Gulf in South China Sea. Results indicated that the maximum bedload transport rate for every burst in Period Ⅲ was almost 100 times larger than that in Period I and was ten times larger than that in Period II. However, the short-term increase in bedload transport induced by storms like Ketsana did not change the long-term evolution of dune morphology. Evidence was given by the internal structures of a typical dune, which revealed renewed modification under subsequent moderate conditions after storm erosion. Instead, storms may influence at different scales and regional allocation of sand dunes in some large areas because changes of the sea floor in large scales can hardly be recovered. More surveys during and after storm passage are also needed to document the level of positive contribution to forward migration.     

“Digital earth” in support of an online oceanic educational public service and popularization

According to the initial vision of "digital earth" (DE), the public should constitute a significant proportion of its users. However, to date, most of the studies and applications have focused on science, the private sector and government. A DE-supported online oceanic educational public service and popularization system, iOcean, is studied. First, the vision for the public’s engagement with "digital ocean" is described: an analysis is presented from four aspects, i.e., the space dimension, the time dimension, the state dimension and its relationship with human beings. Second, the technical framework of iOcean is discussed, including data updating and model computing, the data, the function, and the application layers. Third, two key technologies are studied in detail that will enable the construction of iOcean. More than half a million public viewers have used the current version’s website. Practical demonstrations show that iOcean can bring virtual oceans to web browsers and desktops and construct a bridge between government departments and the general public.     

台风风暴潮异模式集合数值预报技术研究及应用

台风风暴潮数值预报的准确性在很大程度上取决于台风路径预报和强度预报的精度以及风暴潮预报模型的计算精度。目前,国际上24/48 h台风路径预报平均误差分别约为120/210 km左右[1],对于走向异常的台风误差更大;更有,根据单一的台风路径和单族的风暴潮数值预报模式并不能保证获得可靠的风暴潮预报结果。考虑多重网格法原理具有在疏密不同的网格层上进行迭代以达到平滑不同频率的误差分量,使得计算快速收敛,精度提高的特性。在前期研究基础上基于业务化高分辨率(结构网格/有限差分算法)和精细化(非结构网格/有限元算法)台风风暴潮集合数值预报模型构建多模型台风风暴潮集合数值预报系统。采用"非同族"模型进行集合预报很大程度上降低了误差相似遗传的可能性。应用该方法对典型台风风暴潮过程进行了试应用,试报结果表明:该方法对风暴潮增、减水预报效果高于单一集合预报,具有一定的应用前景。