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Seasonal Prediction of Summer Temperature over Northeast China Using a Year-to-Year Incremental Approach 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
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We present a model for predicting summertime surface air temperature in Northeast China (NESSAT) using a year-to-year incremental approach. The predicted value for each year's increase or decrease of NESSAT is added to the observed value within a particular year to yield the net forecast NESSAT. The seasonal forecast model for the year-to-year increments of NESSAT is constructed based on data from 1975-2007. Five predictors are used: an index for sea ice cover over the East Siberian Sea, an index for central Pacific tropical sea surface temperature, two high latitude circulation indices, as well as a North American pressure index. All predictors are available by no later than March, which allows for compilation of a seasonal forecast with a two-month lead time. The prediction model accurately captures the interannual variations of NESSAT during 1977-2007 with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed NESSAT of 0.87 (accounting for 76% of total variance) and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.3℃. A cross-validation test during 1977 2008 demonstrates that the model has good predictive skill, with MAE of 0.4℃ and a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed NESSAT of 0.76. 相似文献
997.
We present a composite tree-ring chronology from two sites of Qilian Juniper(Sabina przewalskii)in the northwestern Qilian Mountains(QM),Northwestern China.Precipitation in June was found to be the main limiting factor for tree-growth.The tree rings are also significantly and positively correlated with June precipitation over large areas of the northern Tibetan Plateau(TP).The authors thus consider that the tree- ring based drought reconstruction from 1803–2006 is representative of a large area drought hist... 相似文献
998.
Climatological characteristics of the moisture budget and their anomalies over the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
The climatological characteristics of the moisture budget over the joining area of Asia
and the Indian-Pacific Ocean (AIPO) and its adjacent regions as well as their anomalies have been
estimated in this study. The main results are as follows.
In the winter, the northeasterly moisture transport covers the extensive areas at the lower latitudes
of the AIPO. The westerly and northerly moisture transport is the major source and the South Indian
Ocean (SIO) is the moisture sink. In the summer, influenced by the southwesterly monsoonal wind, the
cross-equatorial southwesterly moisture transport across Somali originating from the SIO is transported
through the Arabian Sea (AS), the Bay of Bengal (BOB), and the South China Sea (SCS) to eastern China.
The AIPO is controlled by the southwesterly moisture transport.
The net moisture influx over the AIPO has obvious interannual and interdecadal variations. From the
mid- or late 1970s, the influxes over the SIO, the AS, the northern part of the western North Pacific
(NWNP), and North China (NC) as well as South China (SC) begin to decrease abruptly, while those over
Northeast China (NEC) and the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins (YHRB) have increased remarkably. As a
whole, the net moisture influxes over the BOB and the southern part of the western North Pacific (SWNP)
in the recent 50 years take on a linear increasing trend. However, the transition timing for these two
regions is different with the former being at the mid- or late 1980s and the latter occurring earlier,
approximately at the early stage of the 1970s.
The anomalous moisture source associated with the precipitation anomalies is different from the normal
conditions of the summer precipitation. For the drought or flood years or the years of El Ni\~no and its
following years, the anomalous moisture transport originating from the western North Pacific (WNP) is
the vital source of the anomalous precipitation over eastern China, which is greatly related with the
variation of the subtropical Pacific high. 相似文献
999.
利用河西内陆河水文代表站1959-2004年逐月径流量资料、内陆河流域灌溉区1949-2001年耕地面积及代表站1961-2005年的气象资料, 通过对径流量进行正态化处理来确定径流量Z指数, 并以径流量Z指数作为径流干旱指数, 对旱涝等级进行划分; 考虑径流量Z指数的旱涝等级与农业灌溉用水实际情况之间的关系, 给出了径流量Z指数的灌溉指标。将径流量转化为降水量, 改进Palmer旱度模式, 且在作改进后, 又将潜在蒸散量的计算法由利用桑斯威特公式改为利用彭曼公式。结果表明:将径流量考虑到Palmer干旱指数中并改变蒸散量的算法, 使得该指数对河西灌溉区干旱情况的监测均有所改善。对照河西地区的干旱事件, 径流量Z指数监测到的干旱情况, 比Palmer干旱指数改进前、后监测到的干旱情况效果更佳。径流量Z指数能更真实地反映河西灌溉区干旱状况。 相似文献
1000.
利用MODIS合成产品数据MOD11A2和MOD13A2获取的归一化植被指数(NDVI)和陆地表面温度(LST)构建Ts—NDVI特征空间,并把该特征空间计算的温度植被干旱指数(TVDI)作为土壤湿度指标。利用该指标反演伊犁博州地区6~8月3个月份每8d的土壤湿度。然后将土壤湿度分为5级,进而得到该时段伊犁博州地区土壤湿度空间分布特征。 相似文献