基于统计模型识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的研究进展

从统计模型与作物机理模型的区别与联系出发, 介绍了识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的3 种主要统计模型, 即时间序列模型、截面模型和面板模型;综述了前人在站点和区域(全球、国家、省级、地区、县级) 尺度对这一问题的研究进展;总结了应用统计模型识别农业产量对气候变化响应敏感性的4 个主要问题, 包括时空尺度问题、产量的非气候趋势去除问题、气候要素间的自相关问题和忽略适应措施的问题;最后针对以上主要问题, 提出了改进建议及今后研究的发展趋势。     

有色金属“十二五”产量控制在即

历年来,我国有色金属产量呈现高速态势,多个有色金属品种产量已居世界第一,"照此速度发展下去,我国的资源、能源、环境等将无法承受"。     

有限灌溉对荒漠绿洲春玉米产量及产量性状的影响

对干旱环境下临泽荒漠绿洲春玉米进行了有限灌溉试验研究,旨在探究有限灌溉对绿洲玉米农田生产力的影响。结果表明,在所有处理中,全生育期灌水最少的处理MI1玉米籽粒产量比灌水量略高于它的处理MI2和灌水量较高的处理MI4增产25.7%和38.8%,但MI1与其他处理及对照间差异不显著。MI1处理全生育期灌水量最少,其产量不但未显著下降,反而高于灌水最多的对照CK。不同灌溉处理及对照间玉米穗粗、秃顶长、穗行数均不存在显著差异,但个别处理及对照间其他产量性状却存在差异,其中对照CK、处理MI5、MI1的穗长分别比处理MI4增加15.3%、13.6%和12.4%,对照CK和处理MI1、MI5的行粒数分别比MI4处理增加17.3%、13.9%和12.2%,对照CK的穗粒数分别比处理MI4、MI2和MI3增加19.3%、19.1%和14.5%,处理MI1的千粒重分别比MI4、MI5、CK增加26.9%、14.0%和14.0%。     

混合气体驱替煤层气技术的可行性研究

气体驱替煤层气技术是近年来发展起来的具有温室气体减排和提高煤层气采收率双赢效果的新兴技术,相关研究受到世界主要发达国家的广泛重视。对于温室气体减排的压力,发达国家的研究主要着眼于该技术在高渗透、不可采煤层中的应用,注入气体主要为CO2,目的是尽可能多地封存CO2,同时提高煤层气采收率。目前,国内在这方面的研究刚刚起步。国内煤层具有渗透率普遍较低、不开采煤层与要开采煤层难以界定的特点,注CO2气体驱替煤层气在这种煤层中的可行性值得商榷。针对国内煤层特点和煤矿瓦斯抽采率低的现状,建议采用富N2混合气体驱替煤层气技术,以提高煤层气产采收率。通过理论分析、数值模拟和现场试验研究分析了实施混合气体驱替煤层气技术的可行性。研究结果表明,混合气体驱替煤层气技术适用于国内低渗透、可开采煤层,可以提高煤层气采收率和单产量。     

农业地质破译大地密码乐陵金丝小枣有“新家”

近日,山东省鲁北地质工程勘察院提交的《山东省乐陵市特色农业地质调查报告》被评为优秀报告。报告表示,金丝小枣种植区土壤中钾、磷、铜、铁、镁、锰、硒等元素对枣树的生长有着重要的作用。乐陵金丝小枣栽培已有3000年的历史,项目针对乐陵金丝小枣的种植现状、农产品产量及品质的变化、与土壤养分关系等展开调查工作,     

A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields

Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate relatively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale (e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale). Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.     

Change analysis of rice area and production in China during the past three decades

Rice＇s spatial-temporal distributions, which are critical for agricultural, environ- mental and food security research, are affected by natural conditions as well as socio-eco- nomic developments. Based on multi-source data, an effective model named the Spatial Production Allocation Model （SPAM） which integrates arable land distribution, administrative unit statistics of crop data, agricultural irrigation data and crop suitability data, was used to get a series of spatial distributions of rice area and production with 10-km pixels at a national scale -it was applied from the early 1980s onwards and used to analyze the pattern of spatial and temporal changes. The results show that significant changes occurred in rice in China during 1980-2010. Overall, more than 50% of the rice area decreased, while nearly 70% of rice production increased in the change region during 1980-2010. Spatially, most of the increased area and production were in Northeast China, especially, in Jilin and Heilongjiang; most of the decreased area and production were located in Southeast China, especially, in regions of rapidly urbanization in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Thus, the centroid of rice area was moved northeast approximately 230 km since 1980, and rice production about 320 km, which means rice production moved northeastward faster than rice area because of the significant rice yield increase in Northeast China. The results also show that rice area change had a decisive impact on rice production change. About 54.5% of the increase in rice pro- duction is due to the expansion of sown area, while around 83.2% of the decrease in rice production is due to contraction of rice area. This implies that rice production increase may be due to area expansion and other non-area factors, but reduced rice production could largely be attributed to rice area decrease.     

中国地勘业应在国际资源配置中起重要作用

上个世纪90年代以来,随着经济全球化中矿业公司的兼并重组,跨国矿业公司的规模不断扩张,对世界资源的控制程度不断提高。据统计,世界前三大铁矿石公司控制了全球36．4％的铁矿石产量,前十位的铜矿公司控制了全球59％的铜矿产量,     

陆川县冬种马铃薯生产中瓶颈问题的气象探索

对陆川县主栽的马铃薯品种黑龙江K3紫花,采用稻草免耕栽培措施分四次播种进行试验,对试验中造成马铃薯的出苗期烂种、生长后期晚疫病等原因的气象条件进行分析,并探索解决的方法。     

华北油田钻获6027m高产油井

国土资源网消息（2011-06-15）近日,中国石油天然气总公司华北油田分公司在河北省雄县境内成功钻探出一口6027 m深的石油探井,钻探工作耗资1.6亿元人民币,可实现日产原油649t、天然气56万m^2,预测该井原油产量为华北油田近20年来深层油井之最。