我国多雨季和少雨季的一些统计特征

通过对我国31年124季降水距平图的分析发现1.全国性的特多(少)雨季中,在高原东侧(95—105°E间)总有一少(多)雨带出现。2.多(少)雨季之后仍为多(少)雨季的持续性以春一夏最好,秋冬最差。3.一年中出现多雨季的次数与黑潮海温和西太平洋副高强度呈正相关。     

甘肃雨季的气候特征

根据全省主要气象台站1951—1990年旬降水相对系数,确定了雨季的起讫日期,分析了雨季的稳定程度和变化规律。结果表明:甘肃雨季比较明显,来临较迟,起讫日期不稳定,大部分地方降水变率大,特别是河西东部和中部8月降水变率大于7月,更易出现旱涝。且3年周期振动显著,是个比较重要的气候特征。     

云南2002年雨季偏早的环流特征分析

1999-2002年云南处于雨季偏早、5月雨量偏多的气候背景下,2002年雨季连续第四年偏早,这种气候异常较罕见.利用雨季开始期资料,分析了云南雨季开始期变化的年代际特征.还对应分析了雨季开始偏早年及偏晚年1月及5月100、500 hPa及SLP场距平合成场,并与2002年进行了比较,得到了一些对预测云南雨季开始期有指导性的结论.2002年云南雨季偏早开始与索马里急流建立,高层中低纬环流出现"突变"有直接原因.     

2001年云南雨季开始偏早与东南亚地区夏季风爆发的关系

通过分析2001年云南雨季开始期东南亚环流形势的逐日演变,并用OLR资料分析了雨季开始前东南亚对流活动的逐日演变.指出云南雨季开始受东南亚地区夏季风影响,东南亚季风爆发早且偏强,导致云南2001年雨季开始偏早,雨量偏多.在预报云南雨季开始时东南亚地区环流的季节调整及对流活动的北上应是重要因素.     

云南雨季逐候降水量的低频振荡特征

应用主分量方法分析了云南省84站1991~2000年雨季(5~10月)逐候降水量的主要时空特征,并用非整波技术分析了所提取的第1、第2主分量频谱分布的低频振荡特点,同时分析了低频振荡现象与El Nino(La Nina)事件及云南雨季降水多、少之间的关系。结果表明:①云南地区雨季降水主要低频振荡周期为6候(30天)、10候(50天)的月际振荡和15~17候(75~85天)的季节内振荡;②云南雨季的候降水每年都存在30天振荡周期,30天振荡是云南雨季固有的振荡;③当发生El Nino或La Nina异常气候事件时,云南雨季的候降水存在50天振荡周期;④当云南雨季存在75~85天振荡时,云南主汛期(6~8月)降水距平百分率为正(除2000年为零距平);当云南雨季不存在75~85天振荡时,云南主汛期降水距平百分率为负。     

灰关联度在雨季开始期预报中的应用试验

以降水和气温作为基本因子,以红河州为例,用灰关联度分析了州内13个站点相互间的关联性,并根据关联性的大小,将各站点的气候变化类型重新归类,然后从新类别中选出代表站点,以已知的年代作为母参考系列,纵向计算了各历史年代的灰关联度,并以此为依据,预测出各代表点的雨季开始期。     

Multi-Year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model （RegCM_NCC） Part Ⅱ： The Experimental Seasonal Prediction

A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center (NCC) since 2001. The NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM (CGCM) provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model (RegCM NCC). The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme (TKE) and an improved land process model (LPM). The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part I. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model’s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast (1991–2000) for summer (June–August), the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.     

望谟雨季气候分析

1前言雨季早迟、雨季长短及雨季降水量与农业生产关系密切。雨季早春雨多,常引起油菜、小麦的病害,影响烤烟移栽和夏收;雨季开始晚影响春耕、春播和水稻的适时栽插。雨季过长结束期推迟,不利秋收秋种。只有雨季适时,雨季内降水量分布均匀,才对农业生产有利。本文以望漠县