1981—2010年佛山地区气温、降水和灾害性天气的特征分析

根据佛山地区3个气象站1981—2010年的观测资料,采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,研究佛山地区近30年气温、降水和灾害性天气的变化特征。结果表明,近30年佛山的年平均气温具有上升的趋势,在1994年发生突变,快速增暖;年雨量波动明显,年降雨日数则呈现出下滑的趋势。高温、暴雨、强对流天气、灰霾等是影响佛山的主要灾害性天气。高温日数呈现出增加的趋势,持续高温现象加剧。暴雨日数具有非常明显的年际变化特征,总体上呈波动且缓慢上升的趋势。佛山全年均有可能出现强对流天气,其中6—8月是高发期,在10月随着汛期的结束强对流天气急剧下降。灰霾天气主要发生在1—3月份和10—12月份,2007年之后,逐年灰霾日数缓慢下降。     

开平市1960—2012年灰霾的气候变化特征

根据开平气象观测站1960—2012年观测资料,采用滑动平均、线性趋势分析等统计方法,分析了开平市近53年灰霾的气候变化特征。结果表明,开平市年平均灰霾日数为21.1 d,年最多132 d,年最少0 d,总体呈上升趋势,上升速率为1.72 d/年,特别是2000年以来年灰霾日上升趋势最为显著,上升速率达10.01 d/年。其中,20世纪80年代中后期、90年代中期和21世纪初是3个明显的上升阶段,21世纪以来,年平均灰霾日数58.4 d,是20世纪80年代平均值的近17倍。开平市灰霾以轻微为主,比例达57.6%,其次是轻度,比例为22.6%。另外,采用日均值、14：00实测值判别法得到的开平市灰霾日整体变化趋势与人工记录较一致,但3种方法统计的多年平均灰霾日相差较大,其中,日均值法计算的多年平均霾日数较14：00实测值法多13.8 d。     

自升式钻井平台悬臂梁负荷试验方法研究

悬臂梁负荷试验是自升式钻井平台建造完工交付使用之前的关键试验项目之一.以200 ft自升式钻井平台“海洋石油923”为例,针对悬臂梁负荷试验方法做出了探索研究,试验结果表明,此方法行之有效,具有操作简便,安全可靠的优点,为其它类似工程项目的顺利实施提供了宝贵的经验和借鉴.     

莱州湾东岸三山岛段砂质海岸沉积物运移动力机制

通过对三山岛岸段冬夏重复的地形测量和表层沉积物的粒度分析,研究了其地貌特征与地形变化规律、沉积物类型、粒度特征、运移趋势,并探讨了沉积物运移的动力机制。结果表明:该岸段可根据1985黄海高程-1.2m(低潮水位)和-6.5m(闭合深度)平面划分为海滩、水下岸坡和浅海陆架三个地貌单元,各地貌单元表层沉积物分布规律与地形变化特征区别显著。其中水下岸坡和浅海陆架地貌单元主要受潮流作用,海滩地貌单元主要受波浪作用。在西向落潮流和西南向潮余流的作用下,水下岸坡地貌单元发育一个中等规模潮流通道-沙脊沉积系统。表层沉积物以向西运移的趋势为主,少数滞留于西部潮流沙脊处,与地形"东侵西淤"的变化规律相符,这些西向运移的沉积物最终离开研究区,补给莱州浅滩。     

Combining CLUE-S and SWAT models to forecast land use change and non-point source pollution impact at a watershed scale in Liaoning Province,China

Non-point source （NPS） pollution has become a major source of water pollution. A combination of models would provide the necessary direction and approaches designed to control NPS pollution through land use planning. In this study, NPS pollution load was simulated in urban planning, historic trends and ecological protection land use scenarios based on the Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） and Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） models applied to Hunhe-Taizi River Watershed, Liaoning Province, China. Total nitrogen （TN） and total phosphorus （TP） were chosen as NPS pollution indices. The results of models validation showed that CLUE-S and SWAT models were suitable in the study area. NPS pollution mainly came from dry farmland, paddy, rural and urban areas. The spatial distribution of TN and TP exhibited the same trend in 57 sub-catchments. The TN and TP had the highest NPS pollution load in the western and central plains, which concentrated the urban area and farm land. The NPS pollution load would increase in the urban planning and historic trends scenarios, and would be even higher in the urban planning scenario. How- ever, the NPS pollution load decreased in the ecological protection scenario. The differences observed in the three scenarios indicated that land use had a degree of impact on NPS pollution, which showed that scientific and ecologically sound construction could effec- tively reduce the NPS pollution load in a watershed. This study provides a scientific method for conducting NPS pollution research at the watershed scale, a scientific basis for non-point source pollution control, and a reference for related policy making.     

The Soil Moisture and Net Primary Production Affected by CO_2 and Climate Change Using a Coupled Model

In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation （NPP） to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three experiments simulated by the second-generation Earth System Model （CanESM2） of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis （CCCma）, which are part of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5）. The authors focus on the magnitude and evolution of responses in soil moisture and NPP using simulations modeled by CanESM, in which the individual effects of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change and their combined effect are separately accounted for. When considering only the single effect of climate change, the soil moisture and NPP have a linear trend of 0.03 kg m^-2 yr^-1 and-0.14 gC m^- 2 yr^-2, respec- tively. However, such a reduction in the global NPP results from the decrease of NPP at lower latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, although increased NPP has been shown in high northern latitudes. The largest negative trend is located in the Amazon basin at -1.79 gC m^-2 yr^-2. For the individual effect of increasing CO2 concentration, both soil moisture and NPP show increases, with an elevated linear trend of 0.02 kg m^-2 yr^-1 and 0.84 gC m^-2 yr^-2, respectively. Most regions show an increasing NPP, except Alaska. For the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, the increased soil moisture and NPP exhibit a linear trend of 0.04 kg m^2 yr^-1 and 0.83 gC m^2 yr^-2 at a global scale. In the Amazon basin, the higher reduction in soil moisture is illustrated by the model, with a linear trend of-0.39 kg m^-2 yr^-1, for the combined effect. Such a change in soil moisture is caused by a weakened Walker circulation simulated by this coupled model, compared with the single effect of increasing CO2 concentration （experiment M2）, and a consequence of the reduction in NPP is also shown in this area, with a linear trend of-     

EMD方法在广西夏季降水量预测中的应用

对广西夏季降水量进行EMD分解后,利用均生函数相关法,比较不同IMF分量组合建模的预测,不同组合试验预测显示,用前二个IMF分量组合建模预测是最佳的组合方案。经对2001—2010年共10年广西夏季降水量实际预测检验表明,趋势预测准确率达70%以上,对夏季降水量预测较有参考价值。为基层台站的气候预测及服务提供一个客观预测方法。     

Distributional characteristics of grain sizes of surface sediments in the Zhujiang River Estuary

Distributions of the parameters of sedimentary grain sizes and their correlations were studied to trace the sources of silts and their movement trends in the Zhujiang River Estuary based on the analyses of grain sizes from more than 1080 sedimentary samples. The distributions of the median diameter, public value, quartile deviation, and skewness of sediments were complex in the Zhuiiang River Estuary mainly because of the impact of the matter source regions, distances from the source regions, and hydrodynamic conditions, such as waves, tidal currents, and coastal currents. Analyses of the parameters of the grain sizes for the various types of sediments showed that the distributions of the surface sediments in the Zhujiang River Estuary were controlled by many factors. Their matter sources were mainly the sediments discharged from the runoffs and ebb tidal currents, and from the open sea. The sediments mainly moved by suspension movement. The silts formed a large area of sediments with suspended fine silts in the Zhujiang River Estuary by internal adjustment transportation in the area, and moved toward the western coast of the Zhujiang River Estuary under the effect of Coriolis forces and coastal currents.     

福建沿海年平均海平面年际、年代际变化特征及预测

利用福建沿海4个验潮站实测潮位资料,在分析实测资料变化趋势的基础上,采用谱分析的方法分析年平均海平面的变化趋势,得到了4个站年平均海平面变化模型,并对未来50年福建沿海的海平面上升趋势进行预测。     

构造地理要素趋势面的尺度转换普适性方法探讨

当前的遥感科学面临着遥感数据获取能力与数据应用能力之间突出的供需矛盾。尺度问题作为遥感科学中的关键问题,既限制了遥感作为一门科学向系统性、普适性的发展,又限制了遥感应用能力的发展。本文对定量遥感中的尺度问题进行了梳理,包括:遥感与传统站点观测之间的不一致、不同尺度遥感产品之间的不一致、机理模型的尺度适用问题,以及遥感产品与用户需求时空尺度间的不一致。对遥感中的尺度转换方法展开了讨论,总结了尺度转换的关键问题在于原数据信息量不足时引入额外信息和保留关键信息两方面。提出了构造地理要素趋势面的基本构想,搭建了一个具有普适性的尺度转换方法框架。核心内容是充分利用地表环境要素时间、空间上的信息作为先验知识,通过关联遥感观测新信息和先验趋势面生成指定时空尺度的地表要素产品。