渗流监测数据缺失处理与渗透稳定判断

由于地下岩体条件复杂,渗流监测数据缺失现象普遍存在。为了在时间和空间上对地下渗流场进行全面分析,需要对缺失数据进行补充。提出了三类缺失数据的插补方法,对时间序列、空间断面以及区域整体的缺失数据分别用监测统计模型、物理因子修正和反演进行了有效的补充,反映了缺失数据的规律和时间、空间因素对监测数据的影响,最终可得完整、全面的渗流场,并通过反演渗流场对渗透稳定进行判断,为工程评价提供了依据。将该方法用于天荒坪电站缺失数据的插补,结果有效地插补了缺失数据,最终的反演渗流场能够判断渗透破坏可能发生的部位,对工程加固措施具有指导意义。     

10年时间尺度气候预测

<正>10年时间尺度的气候预测,由于能够提供给政策制定者和有关部门与单位近期的气候变化预测,作为经济规划和社会生活安排等的参考,因此越来越受到重视。10年气候预测是气候科学中一个新的领域,一般预测方法采用:一是统计预测方法,根据前期气候变化特征,利用统计关系,计算预测未来10年的气候变化;二是动力模式预测方法,利用全球或区域气候模式,在一定初边条件和外强迫作用下,预测未来10年的气候变化;三是动力加统计     

Seismic ground motion relationship in southern China based on stochastic finite-fault model

The characteristics of seismic ground motions in southern China are difficult to determine statistically due to a lack of strong ground motion data. In this study, a stochastic finite-fault ground motion model was adopted to simulate the seismic ground motions at bedrock for southern China, based on parameters derived from small and medium earthquakes that have occurred in the region. From these, the response spectra was estimated. A set of ground motion attenuation relations hipswas then developed based on simulated peak ground motions and response spectral parameters through regression, which would be applicable for use in engineering practice. Through comparisons, it was demonstrated that the proposed ground motion relationships are generally consistent with those obtained from other reported ground motion attenuation models for southern China.     

关于建立天津海洋国民经济核算体系的建议

本文论述了海洋经济的发展与海洋统计工作间的关系，提出了海洋统计工作中存在的主要问题，阐述了建立天津海洋国民经济核算体系的必要性和现实意义，并介绍了建立天津海洋国民经济核算体系韵主要框架内容。     

Vertical characteristics revealed by biweekly and synoptic variability of upper sea temperature in the northern South China Sea

On the basis of the analysis of the sea temperature data that are observed from the three automatic temperature line acquisition sysem mooring buoys deployed in the central South China Sea (SCS) during South China Sea monsoon experiment, vertical features of biweekly and synoptic variability are discussed. There are five vertical modes, that is, subsurface temperature variability is in phase with,out of phase with, leads to, lags the surface temperature variability, and at depths within the subsurface layer the upper and lower temperature variations are out of phase. The formation of these vertical modes is related to the property of low-level atmospheric forcing and to the background in atmosphere and ocean. Wind stress curl is the main driving factor in forming Modes 1 and 3, and wind stresses in forming Modes 2 and 4.     

基于GJB899A的可靠性统计试验方案分析

可靠性试验作为可靠性工程的重要一环,是衡量产品是否满足可靠性要求的重要手段之一。 GJB899A《可靠性鉴定和验收试验》给出了一系列统计试验方案,主要涉及定时截尾试验方案和序贯截尾试验方案。针对这 2 类试验方案的原理开展分析,根据试验方案的所需参数明确方案的确定方法,给出可靠性指标的验证方式。结合应用示例进行了分析说明,用以指导工程人员根据被试产品的可靠性要求选择合适的可靠性试验方案,可以有效帮助研制方和订购方开展可靠性试验。     

渤海中、南部表层沉积硅藻的定量分析

对取自渤海中、南部海底表层的44个沉积物样品进行了硅藻分析。样品中共含硅藻20属41种,主要是潮间带、沿岸性底栖或浮游种类,其中尤以具槽直链藻Melosira sulc-ata和小环藻Cyclotella最多见。对本区的表层沉积硅藻用多元统计方法进行分区,共划分出三区、两亚区,井与其他海区进行了比较。     

海峡西岸海雾的统计分析

本文以海峡西岸出现海雾的实测天数为资料,应用统计学方法初步揭示了该地区海雾及盛季(3～6月)的气候特征,为海雾预报提供一点素材。     

运用德尔菲调查—灰色统计法确立水库鱼产力综合评价中的指标权重体系

本文运用德尔菲方法对水库鱼产力综合评价中指标权重的合理分配问题作了专家调查,并采用灰色统计法对调查结果进行归纳处理,从而确立了一个水库鱼产力影响因素诸层次各方面的评价指标权重体系,可供今后的评价工作参考使用。