EC细网格2 m气温产品在山东地区预报性能检验

利用2016年EC细网格模式2 m气温预报产品,分析了模式对山东地区最高气温和最低气温的预报性能,结果表明：(1)模式最高气温预报：年平均误差有两个正值中心,一是泰山山区附近,预报偏高6℃以上,另一个在青岛胶州湾西侧,平均偏高0.5～1.5℃。海岸线以内5～10 km偏低。最低气温方面：36.5°N以北偏高为主,以南偏低为主。(2)两个最高气温正误差中心有一定的季节变化,早春和晚秋时节强度弱于其他时间。鲁西地区正误差带在6—9月份消失,转为弱的负误差区,而4—5月最高。(3)最高气温预报准确率,冬半年优于夏半年;最低气温夏半年好于冬半年。依据模式误差特点,给出了气温主观订正参考值,订正后最高气温和最低气温预报准确率分别提高了4%～34%和2%～16%。(4)转折性天气时,最高气温预报：夏季的最高气温预报和回暖过程预报易偏低,冬季冷空气过程预报易偏高4℃,且降温幅度越大,偏高越明显。     

黄河小浪底水库诱发地震预测

黄河小浪底水库库区地质构造复杂 ,库区及周边存在着十几条活动断层 ,它们是可能诱震断层。本文首先对库区断裂分布规律、相互关系进行分析 ,并探讨其断裂活动性 ,然后在综合地质条件分析、地震地质与工程地质类比的基础上 ,应用概率预测法分析得知小浪底水库有诱发地震的可能 ,并采用水库综合影响参数法、断层破裂长度法、聚类分析法估算了水库诱发地震震级 ,结果表明其震级以 5级为上限 ,随后简单估计了其震中位置与时间。     

可靠性数学在斜坡稳定性分析中的应用

本文将可靠性数学的相关理论引入斜坡稳定分析中，结合斜坡在变形破坏中的各影响因素均具有一定随机性的实际情况，提出了基于概率方法的斜坡稳定性可靠性计算公式，具有一定的现实意义。     

设计变更统计分析为质量改进指出方向

持续提高设计质量,是工程设计企业永恒的目标。设计变更是工程建设过程中的客观存在,是设计的延伸,也是保证工程实体质量的一个重要环节。本文介绍如何利用数理统计方法,对设计变更进行统计和分析,为设计质量改进指出方向。     

强化矿产资源储量管理,为江苏经济发展提供依据与方略

矿产资源储是管理是矿政管理的四大职能之一,１０年来,积极推进该项管理职能到位,在我省确立了矿产资源统一规划,矿产储量统一审批与统一登记统计和地质资料统一汇交的“四统一”的法律制度。     

卫星遥感信息处理与多元统计分析

本文针对遥感信息的数据特征探讨了卫星遥感信息处理与多元统计算法之间的关系,并从实际出发对最小二乘残差技术,目标模式识别,增强主成份分析等方法的应用作了介绍。     

地震工况下坝坡的抗滑安全系数取值标准研究

地震工况下的坝坡抗滑稳定性核算一直是大坝安全性评价的重要环节,采用科学合理的计算方法是评价坝坡安全性的基本保证。本文从概率极限分析的角度探讨了坝坡稳定性可靠度分析的概率意义,提出了将地震发生当做概率事件的坝坡可靠度计算方法。为验证将地震超越概率纳入坝坡稳定分析中的合理性,本文通过两个典型算例和小浪底坝坡典型剖面的抗滑稳定性分析研究了坝坡在地震工况下的单一安全系数与可靠指标的变化规律。研究结果表明在坝坡稳定分析中引入超越概率计算所得结果与工程实际相符,与以往的将地震发生当做确定性事件计算方法相比,该方法显著提高了坝坡的可靠指标值;比较可靠指标与单一安全系数的取值标准显示出在坝坡稳定分析中合理地引入地震概率分析方法能够保证坝坡在地震和正常工况下有相近的可靠指标值     

Theory and Method of Mineral Resource Prediction Based on Synthetic Information

Metallogenic prognosis of synthetic information uses the geological body and the miaeral resource body as a statistical unit to interpret synthetically the information of geology, geophysics, geo-chemistry and remote sensing from the evolution of geology and puts all the information into one entire system by drawing up digitalized interpretation maps of the synthetic information. On such basis, differ-ent grades and types of mineral resource prospecting models and predictive models of synthetic informa-tion can be established. Hence, a new integrated prediction system will be formed of metallogenic prog-nosis (qualitative prediction), mineral resources statistic prediction (determining targets) and mlaeral resources prediction (determining resources amount).     

Theoretical Study on Stochastic Modeling of Combined Gravity-Magnetic-Electric-Seismic Inversion and Its Application

As gravity field,magnetic field,electric field and seismic wave field are all physical fields,their object function,reverse function and compound function are certainly infinite contiuously differentiable func-tions which can be expanded into Taylor (Fourier) series within domain of definition and be further reduced in-to solving stochastic distribution function of series and statistic inference of optimal approximation,This is the basis of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion built on the basis of separation of field and source gravity-magnetic difference-value(D-value)trend surface,taking distribution-independent fault sys-tem as its unit,depths of seismic and electric interfaces of interests as its corresponding bivariate compound re-verse function of gravity-magnetic anomalies and using high order polynomial(high order trigonometric func-tion)approximating to its series distribution,The difference from current dominant inversion techniques is that,first,it does not respectively create gravity-seismic,magnetic-seismic deterministic inversion model from theoretical model,but combines gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic stochastic inversion model from stochastic model;second,after the concept of equivalent geological body being introduced,using feature of independent variable of gravity-magnetic field functions,taking density and susceptibility related to gravity-magnetic func-tion as default parameters of model,the deterministic model is established owing to better solution to the con-tradictioc of difficulty in identifying strata and less test analytical data for density and susceptibility in newly explored area;third,under assumption of independent parent distribution,a real modeling by strata,the prob-lem of difficult plane closure arising in profile modeling is avoided,This technology has richer and more detailed fault and strata information than sparse pattern seismic data in newly explored area,successfully inverses and plots structural map of Indosinian discontinuty in Hefei basin with combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion,With development of high precision gravity-magnetic and overall geophysical technology,it is certain for introducing new methods of stochastic modeling and computational intelligence and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial path.