A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields

Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate relatively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale (e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale). Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.     

丹麦法稳健估计在隧道椭圆拟合中的应用

隧道断面在设计时为一标准圆形,受到施工及外部环境的影响变形为偏心率很小的椭圆。减小粗差影响、精确确定椭圆的几何参数是其研究的重点。通过对上海某一隧道断面的测量试验,得出用丹麦法稳健估计可以有效减小粗差的影响,而且拟合值可以很好地逼近无粗差情况下的最小二乘拟合值。采用Matlab 语言实现算法,并详细介绍了用二项式变换求解椭圆参数的方法。     

区域性CORS系统监测地表形变的可行性

连续运行卫星定位服务系统(简称为CORS)已经在国内外广泛建立,CORS在维护区域大地测量基准和城市测绘工作中得到了非常广泛的应用。但在城市地面沉降监测方面,仍存在基准站的稳定性、测量精度对平面及高程形变影响等问题。这里提出了一套完整的基于CORS系统变形监测网的稳定性分析的方法和流程。采用秩亏自由网平差,以位移向量一次性范数最小原则求取监测网点最合理的位移量及权阵。采用正态分布函数对监测点的位移显著性进行检验。结合武汉市地面沉降监测项目,分析评价了武汉市连续运行卫星定位服务系统(简称为WHCORS)用于城市地表形变监测的可行性。     

基于稳健模拟退火-单纯形混合算法的微震定位研究

为提高矿井微震的定位精度,通过模拟试验对比分析常规定位及新方法在定位求解中的适用范围及优缺点,研究反演未知变量数目、检波器的密度、波速等对各自定位方法的影响。基于单纯形法的优点,并结合模拟退火法的全局收敛性,提出采用稳健的模拟退火-单纯形法进行微震定位。研究发现,该方法不必直接搜索发震时刻,只需通过稳健方法预先估算,利用较少的检波器就可进行微震定位,且基本不受初始波速影响,从而大大减少搜索步数,有效地提高定位精度及收敛速度。以柿竹园矿人工爆破定位测试试验为例,重点分析比较模拟退火-单纯形法、稳健模拟退火-单纯形法及其他定位方法的空间绝对距离及目标函数误差,认为检波器数量较多且可获得理想的P波信息时,应用非线性最小二乘法能求出可信的结果;其余定位方法的三维定位误差及目标函数误差相差不大,但稳健模拟退火-单纯形法目标函数误差最小,稳定性最高,可在矿井微震定位中推广使用。     

利用IGGIII模型的多模多频GNSS-MR潮位反演

潮位是保证沿海安全、监测海洋气候、维持高程基准的重要参数。近年来基于地基Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)反射信号的遥感方法被证实可以用于潮位监测。相较于传统的潮位测量方法,GNSSmultipath reflectometry (GNSS-MR)技术有成本低、连续跟踪、全天候等优势;但是目前技术的精度不高、时间分辨率较低。通过获取更多GNSS卫星系统的观测数据可以提高潮位监测结果的时间分辨率,本文利用GPS、GLONASS、Galileo和BeiDou的观测数据,采用基于IGGIII模型的稳健回归方法对四系统的潮位反演数据进行融合研究。测站选取BRST站和HKQT站,这两个测站均可接收四系统数据;实验结果表明,利用多模多频GNSSMR进行潮位反演,二个测站的反演精度分别优于13 cm和8 cm,相比于单系统单频精度有40%—70%的提升,而且能够大大提高时间分辨率。     

位场向下延拓迭代法收敛性分析及稳健向下延拓方法研究

地磁导航作为一种新的无源导航方式,具有重要的国防意义.构建空间地磁数据库是实现地磁导航的基础,位场延拓是解决地磁数据库构建的有效方法.积分-迭代法是一种解决位场大深度向下延拓的实用方法.本文着重对积分-迭代法的收敛性进行了分析,从数学角度证明积分-迭代法能够收敛到直接下延法理论解.同时对积分-迭代法的抗干扰性进行了初步分析,当观测数据含有噪声时,积分-迭代过程中使得噪声得到累加,影响延拓数据的精度.本文利用正则化方法和递增型维纳滤波方法,提出了波数域位场向下延拓新算法.模型检验表明,新算法稳定、抗干扰能力强、计算速度快.     

辽宁地区中等地震活动增强与后续最大震级的关系探讨

本文定义了描述中等地震活动增强的三个参量E、T和R,通过对辽宁地区13次ML≥5.0地震的统计分析,分别给出了辽西-辽蒙交界、营-海-岫和辽南及两侧海域地区主震震级对E、T、R的回归方程并与实际震级进行对比分析,结果表明,中等地震活动增强参量E、T、R与未来主震震级间存在一定的定量关系,在震级预测上有一定指导意义。     

西北干旱地区大气降水δ18O的特征及水汽来源

In order to reveal the characteristics and climatic controls on the stable isotopic composition of precipitation over Arid Northwestern China, eight stations have been selected from Chinese Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (CHNIP). During the year 2005 and 2006, monthly precipitation samples have been collected and analyzed for the composition of δD and δ18O. The established local meteoric water line δD=7.42 δ18O+1.38, based on the 95 ob-tained monthly composite samples, could be treated as isotopic input function across the region. The deviations of slope and intercept from the Global Meteoric Water Line indicated the specific regional meteorological conditions. The monthly δ18O values were characterized by a positive correlation with surface air temperature (δ18O (‰) =0.33 T (℃)-13.12). The amount effect visualized during summer period (δ18O (‰) = -0.04P (mm)-3.44) though not appeared at a whole yearly-scale. Spatial distributions of δ18O have properly portrayed the atmospheric circulation background in each month over Arid Northwestern China. The quan-titative simulation of δ18O, which involved a Rayleigh fractionation and a kinetic fractionation, demonstrated that the latter one was the dominating function of condensation of raindrops. Furthermore, the raindrop suffered a re-evaporation during falling processes, and the pre-cipitation vapor might have been mixed with a quantity of local recycled water vapor. Multiple linear regression equations and a δ18O-T relation have been gained by using meteorological parameters and δ18O data to evaluate physical controls on the long-term data. The estab-lished δ18O-T relation, which has been based on the present-day precipitation, could be considered as a first step of quantitatively reconstructing the historical environmental climate.     

浅析最小二乘法在DEM6型轻便三杯风向风速表计量检定中的应用

为保障DEM6型轻便三杯风向风速表量值传递的准确性,需要计量检定在特制的检定装置中通过标准器来检定。根据《国家计量检定规程JJG431 86》的要求,检定合格的风速表,检定证书的背面要给出风速表的控制工作时间、校准图线和线性回归方程,而如何算出线性回归方程,需要通过最小二乘法来解决。     

云南玄武岩滑坡滑动面力学参数分析

云南是中国滑坡灾害最严重的地区之一。在高速公路的建设过程中,出现了许多滑坡的稳定性问题。分析滑坡稳定性的关键是获得较为准确的滑动面力学参数。首先提出了滑坡滑动面力学参数分析的内容以及主要的研究方法,然后针对云南一高速公路玄武岩滑坡的滑体松散、取样困难的实际情况,采用现场试验的方法进行滑动面力学参数分析,并采用基于稳健回归分析的计算方法进行滑动面力学参数的计算,能有效地减少异常值的影响,从而获得更为可靠的滑动面力学参数。同时指出,古滑坡滑动面的抗剪强度的分析应考虑时间效应下残余强度的恢复。