滑动窗口的普通克立格方法在降水量插值中的应用

利用2009年全国2200个观测站降水量资料,使用滑动窗口的普通克立格方法对降水量资料进行格点化估计。针对滑动窗口的普通克立格方法在降水量格点化应用中存在的问题,设计了3种技术处理的试验方案。比较了全局搜索与方位邻近方法的误差,讨论了最大影响半径及屏蔽效应对插值效果的作用。提出了方位邻近法的样本点选择策略,结果表明,相对传统滑动窗口的普通克立格方法较常使用的全局搜索法而言,方位邻近法显著降低了计算资源的耗用,同时又具有较高的插值精度,特别是在站点密集地区有突出的优势;试验结果也表明:变程为4°～5°的经(纬)线弧长时,在方位邻近法下,我国大部分区域有较好的插值效果;屏蔽效应弱,ε取值为0.1时,降水量插值准确率较高,随着ε增大,插值误差也逐渐增大。     

Recent trends in winter temperature extremes in eastern China and their relationship with the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO

Interannual variations in the number of winter extreme warm and cold days over eastern China （EC） and their relationship with the Arctic Oscillation （AO） and E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） were investigated using an updated temperature dataset comprising 542 Chinese stations during the period 1961- 2011. Results showed that the number of winter extreme warm （cold） days across EC experienced a significant increase （decrease） around the mid-1980s, which could be attributed to interdecadal variation of the East Asian Winter Monsoon （EAWM）. Probability distribution functions （PDFs） of winter temperature extremes in different phases of the AO and ENSO were estimated based on Generalized Extreme Value Distribution theory. Correlation analysis and the PDF technique consistently demonstrated that interannual variation of winter extreme cold days in the northern part of EC （NEC） is closely linked to the AO, while it is most strongly related to the ENSO in the southern part （SEC）. However, the number of winter extreme warm days across EC has little correlation with both AO and ENSO. Furthermore, results indicated that, whether before or after the mid-1980s shift, a significant connection existed between winter extreme cold days in NEC and the AO. However, a significant connection between winter extreme cold days in SEC and the ENSO was only found after the mid-1980s shift. These results highlight the different roles of the AO and ENSO in influencing winter temperature extremes in different parts of EC and in different periods, thus providing important clues for improving short-term climate prediction for winter temperature extremes.     

双天基平台光学测量GEO目标的轨道确定

针对地基测控系统对GEO卫星监测在时间与空间上存在较多盲区、不能实时获取GEO目标的空间态势感知信息、无法有效对非合作性质的GEO目标进行空间监测的问题,提出了天基光学相机的双GEO平台对GEO目标进行轨道确定的技术方案.根据光学可视条件筛选数据,利用生成的模拟数据对GEO目标进行轨道确定,将所得轨道与参考轨道进行比对...     

成都地区土层剪切波速与埋深的关系

基于成都市地震安评报告中的场地钻孔剪切波速资料,定性探讨了成都地区Ⅱ类场地常见的10类土的剪切波速与埋深的关系;将拟合优度作为模型的综合评价指标,推荐给出针对不同类型土层的拟合函数模型。基于某工程的钻孔数据,利用推荐的数学回归模型和遗传神经网络模型,与其它研究模型计算得到的剪切波速预测值及实测值进行对比分析。结果表明：...     

Adjoint Assimilation in Marine and an Example of Application

This paper aims at a review of the work carried out to date on the adjoint assimilation of data in marine ecosystem models since 1995. The structure and feature of the adjoint assimilation in marine ecosystem models are also introduced. To illustrate the application of the adjoint technique and its merits, a 4-variable ecosystem model coupled with a 3-D physical model is established for the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The chlorophyll concentration data derived from the SeaWiFS ocean colour data are assimilated in the model with the technique. Some results are briefly presented.     

a尺度正交多小波的构造

证明了由任意a尺度正交单尺度函数和任意一组正交滤波器生成a尺度r重正交多尺度函数的一个充分必要条件,并给出了a尺度r重正交多小波的一种构造方法.     

区域水资源协调分析

本文建立了区域水资源协调分析的概念模型和通用多区域-多目标数学模型(MAOM),并结合新疆昌吉州的具体情况,运用目标规划法进行求解,确定了昌吉州近期和远景的水资源合理利用结构。     

南亚夏季风期间100hPa南亚高压的活动与变化

使用１９８５年５～９月青藏高原及其附近地区的ＯＬＲ资料和同期该范围１００ｈＰａ位势高度格点资料，通过自然正交函数（ＥＯＦ）展开、功率谱和交叉谱的计算，研究了青藏高原上空时流发展的空间分布的两种主要类型，它和南亚高压活动的关系、它们的时间演变特征等。     

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