灾害预报与鸡西煤矿瓦斯爆炸事件

2002年上半年,伴随着厄尔尼诺现象的日益加剧,全球性重大自然灾害频繁发生.6月20日发生在中国黑龙江省鸡西煤矿的瓦斯爆炸事件和6月22日发生在伊朗的强烈地震,时间恰逢月亮近地潮的6月19日和太阳潮半日形变最大值的夏至的6月21日附近,是地球形变和排气较强烈的时段.据国内外有关资料,月球与地球发震有关系的重要条件是“近地点兼朔、望”以及各大行星特定位置的配合,张元东称之为“特殊天象组合期”[1];郭增建等提出,月亮赤纬角或太阳黄赤交角最大时地球形变和排气最强烈[2～5].在此期间,中国各种大的突发性灾难,如空难、海难、火车事故、矿…     

青海平安电磁辐射在中强震前短期前兆异常特征及预报效能研究

分析和整理了青海平安电磁辐射台自1993年7月以来的资料，发现震前平安单台电磁辐射在中强地震临震前有最大脉冲信号，并通过对无震异常，地震异常的分析判断，对其预报效能进行了R值评价。     

福建省地壳形变观测网建设进展与展望

简述了建设中的福建地壳形变台网的概况，福建地壳形变台网，以GPS观测为主，结合精密重力、水准和流动地磁测量，将三者观测重合到CPS基准站，形成有特色的观测网络。通过福建省5个基准站、16个基本站及一个数据处理中心，动态监测东南沿海地区地壳运动，为地震预测预报提供背景信息。     

生态地理建模中的多尺度问题

本文在分析生态地理建模内涵的基础上,讨论了生态地理建模中的尺度转换问题、跨尺度相互作用问题、空间尺度与时间尺度的关联问题和多尺度数据处理问题.由于生态地理问题的非线性、生态环境的异质性和随机事件,简单的线性尺度转换方法远不能满足生态地理建模的要求.为了从根本上解决生态地理建模中的时空尺度问题,除需要运用微分几何学和等级理论等经典方法外,还需要引入格点生成法和网格计算等现代理论和技术手段.     

自适应GM(1,1)模型进行地表沉降预报

提出采用自适应GM( 1 ,1 )模型进行地表沉降预报 ,并用于兖州某矿形变控制点的沉降预报 ,效果令人满意。说明此模型具有实用价值。     

基于DEM的河流多尺度显示研究

进行了基于DEM的河流多尺度显示方法的研究和试验。采用斯特拉勒算法对河流线进行分级,通过DEM提取河流的高差、集水面积等属性信息,并以此为基础提出了对河流的主支流的自动判别的方法,最终以国家基础地理信息的全国1∶25万数据库为数据源实现了实验区域河流的多尺度显示。     

沱讧上游长期洪水预报初探

沱江上游洪水属典型天然河道洪水特性，采用历史洪水系列，分析了厄尔尼诺现象和太阳黑子活动对沱江上游洪水的影响，并通过分析周期变化规律及数理统计分析预报等多种方法，综合分析了各种相关因子对沱江上游三皇庙水文站历年最大流量的影响，从而提高了沱江上游长期洪水预报精度。     

STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NIUSHOU MOUNTAIN AND ITS GEOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE IN CENTRAL NINGXIA

There are many thrust-related structures occurring in the Paleozoic strata of the Niushou Mountain in the central part of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The fault-related folds are the typical structures in this area. Based on the analysis about these structures and their relationships, the processes by which these structures of the Miboshan Formation were formed are reconstructed, and the strata underwent about three stages of deformation: (1) horizontal shortening, (2) folding, and (3) thrusting. And the fact that the Niushou Mountain is the leading edge of an old thrust sheet was proved, the Niushou Mountain, the Daluo Mountain and the Xiaoluo Mountain together constitute the front part of this old thrust zone, so the Niushou Mountain and the Ordovician strata in the central and southern parts of Ningxia now are likely allochthons. In the period from middle Ordovician to Devonian, the areas of the central and southern Ningxia belonged to the back-arc foreland basin of North Qilianshan orogen, which was adjacent to the continent in the north. In the later part of the early Paleozoic period, the Niushou Mountain was formed after the closure of the back-arc foreland basin.     

Theory and Method of Mineral Resource Prediction Based on Synthetic Information

Metallogenic prognosis of synthetic information uses the geological body and the miaeral resource body as a statistical unit to interpret synthetically the information of geology, geophysics, geo-chemistry and remote sensing from the evolution of geology and puts all the information into one entire system by drawing up digitalized interpretation maps of the synthetic information. On such basis, differ-ent grades and types of mineral resource prospecting models and predictive models of synthetic informa-tion can be established. Hence, a new integrated prediction system will be formed of metallogenic prog-nosis (qualitative prediction), mineral resources statistic prediction (determining targets) and mlaeral resources prediction (determining resources amount).