1994年江淮地区首次区域性春季暴雨诊断分析

分析了１９９４年４月１９～２０日春季暴雨主要是由对流层中低层低涡和地面静止锋共同作用的结果，侧重于对低空急流的形成与变动和熵平衡方程的诊断分析，能量场与该次暴雨有很好的相关性     

海洋生物系列（十五）

▲毛躄鱼毛躄鱼属笔鱼科。这种鱼长得较为奇特,头较大,腹部突出,胸鳍酷似假臂,隐于皮下。全身无鳞,以细小绒毛状小棘所代替。终生生活在热带海域中,极其喜欢栖息于海藻中,具有把腹部充满空气漂浮于水面的习性。分布于南海、印度、马来西亚半岛沿岸。▲巨牙天竺鲷巨牙天竺鲷属天     

ENCLOSURE EXPERIMENTS ON AND LACUSTRINE PRACTICE FOR ELIMINATING MICROCYSTIS BLOOM

Microcystis bloom, one of the most objectionable characteristics of eutrophication in tropical and subtropical waters, occurred in Donghu Lake (East lake) of Wuhan every summer from the 1970s up to 1984, but from 1985 up to now failed to occur there. The cause of its disappearance rema-ined in obscurity until recently. In situ enclosure experiments in the lake for three years showed that the stocking of the filter-feeding silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) and big-head carp (Aristichthys nobilis ) played a decisive role in eliminating Microcystis bloom from the lake; but that recurrence of the bloom is possible under certain conditions. This paper presents the details and the results of enclosure ex-periments. The authors‘ analysis of fish biomass data obtained by echo-sounding and the fishery produc-tion of the lake over the years, revealed that the recurrence of Microcystis bloom can be prevented so long as the combined biomnss of silver carp and big-head carp remains at or exceeds 50 g per cubic meter of lakewater, as was the case in the lake‘s 1985 fish yield of 1015 t.     

3-D BAROCLINIC NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA I. UPPER CIRCULATION

A three-dimensional baroclinic shelf sea model was employed to simulate the seasonal characteristics of the South China Sea (SCS) upper circulation. The results showed that: in summer, an anticyclonic eddy, after its formation between the Bashi Channel and Dongsha Islands in the northeastern SCS, moves southwestward until it disperses slowly. There exists a northward western boundary current along the east shore of the Indo-China Peninsula in the western SCS and an anticyclonic gyre in the southern SCS. But at the end of summer and beginning of autumn, a weak local cyclonic eddy forms in the Nansha Trough, then grows slowly and moves westward till it becomes a cyclonic gyre in the southern SCS in autumn. At the beginning of winter, there exists a cyclonic gyre in the northern and southern SCS, and there is a southward western boundary current along the east shore of the Indo-China Peninsula. But at the end of winter, an anticyclonic eddy grows and moves toward the western boundary after forming in the Nansha Trough. The eddy‘s movement induces a new opposite sign eddy on its eastern side, while the strength of the southward western boundary current gets weakened. This phenomenon continues till spring and causes eddies in the southern SCS.     

对桂林热带岩溶发育的一些新认识

文章主要阐述了桂林热带岩溶、岩溶洞穴强烈发育的几个地质历史时期（中、晚三叠世、第三纪、第四纪）和热带岩溶、岩溶洞穴相对不发育的几个地质历史时期（侏罗纪、白垩纪）。并据资料推算了中、晚三叠世至白垩世古地磁纬度，证明以上地质历史时期本区均处于低纬度热带、亚热带环境。文章认为，中、晚三叠世基本上奠定了桂林热带岩溶地貌轮廓雏形；第三纪基本上形成了现代热带岩溶地貌总形态；第四纪使热带岩溶发育得更深化、齐全、典型、配套、完美，形成世界上独一无二的热带岩溶地貌和热带岩溶发育的模式地区。文章提出现漓江峡谷、地下一定深度的岩溶洞穴是第三纪或主要是第三纪发育形成的。否定了垂向上岩溶洞穴成层性的传统观念     

湘江"06·7"暴雨洪水分析

2006年7月13～18日,受第4号强热带风暴"碧利斯"外围云系和强盛的西南气流共同影响,湘南普降大到暴雨,郴州资兴、永兴、汝城等地降特大暴雨,致使湘江一级支流耒水发生了百年一遇超历史记录的特大洪水,湘江上中游干流发生了有实测记录以来的第二位大洪水.本文根据报汛资料从降雨分析、洪水分析以及与"94·6"洪水比较等方面对这次洪水进行了比较全面的分析.     

红外卫星云图和相关向量机的有眼热带气旋客观定强模型

热带气旋TC(Tropical Cyclone)是全球影响最严重的自然灾害之一。TC强度和路径的准确预报,对于减轻其带来的灾害影响至关重要。本文基于静止红外卫星云图和相关向量机RVM(Relevance Vector Machine)构建有眼TC客观定强模型。首先,利用高斯平滑对红外卫星云图进行去噪;然后,利用基于测地活动轮廓GAC(Geodesic Active Contour)模型的偏微分方程PDE(Partial Differential Equation)法对有眼TC的眼壁进行分割,提取眼壁的亮温梯度信息,计算眼壁亮温梯度的最大值及梯度数据不同概率时的均值,从而构造与TC强度密切相关的特征因子;最后,利用RVM构建单特征因子、多特征因子与近地面最大中心风速的客观定强模型,研究不同特征维度对TC客观定强误差的影响。实验结果表明,在单特征因子的模型定强中,95%概率眼壁亮温梯度均值的定强误差最小,相比利用单特征因子所构建的定强模型,多特征因子的模型定强误差更小,即多特征因子中包含更多与TC强度相关的特征信息。在多特征因子的模型定强中,二特征因子优于三特征因子模型,说明应当合理选择特征因子维数,并非越多越好。本文所用RVM模型具有良好的高维非线性处理能力,能对TC强度进行有效估计。     

北洛河“2021.10”秋汛暴雨洪水分析

受强冷空气和西太平洋副热带高压外围西南暖湿气流共同影响,2021年10月3-6日北洛河流域出现一场历史罕见的高水位、大灾情的洪水过程。本文从暴雨洪水特性及渭河干流洪水影响等方面对北洛河“2021.10”秋汛暴雨洪水与历史典型“94.8”暴雨洪水进行了对比分析。研究结果表明,与“94.8”暴雨洪水相比,“2021.10”暴雨洪水的暴雨过程历时长、强度小、覆盖面积大;洪水过程洪水总量大、传播时间长、下游洪水水位高,并针对高水位、大灾情的洪水提出了防御建议,为水灾害防御工作提供参考。     

基于网格的暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价

评估暴雨洪涝灾害风险,对于制定暴雨洪涝灾害区域防灾减灾规划具有重要意义。选取哈尔滨市主城区为研究区,以气象数据、社会经济数据和地理信息数据资料为基础,构建0.01°格网,从暴雨致灾因子危险性、暴露度和脆弱性3方面对洪涝灾害进行精细化风险评估与区划。结果表明：哈尔滨主城区洪涝危险性自西北向东南逐渐增加,香坊南部及松北、道里、南岗、道外交汇处受洪涝危害最为严重;暴露度呈现中心高四周低的格局,高风险主要位于绕城高速以内;路网密集地带脆弱性相对较高。洪涝风险呈自西北向东南逐渐增加,东部显著高于西部,主城中心、道外区西部及香坊区大部为高风险区,受洪涝危害严重,应注意城市内涝、交通拥堵等次生影响的防范。