热带东印度洋SST对气候变暖和变冷的响应

The response of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean(ETIO) to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model(CESM). A significant positive asymmetry in sea surface temperature(SST) is found over the ETIO—the warming responses to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing. A mixed layer heat budget analysis is carried out to identify the mechanisms responsible for the SST asymmetry. Results show that it is mainly ascribed to the ocean dynamical processes, including vertical advections and diffusion. The net surface heat flux, on the contrary, works to reduce the asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components. The former is due to the nonlinear relationship between SST and cloud, while the latter is resulted mainly from Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. Changes in the SST skewness are also evaluated, with more enhanced negative SST skewness over the ETIO found for the cooling than heating scenarios due to the asymmetric thermocline-SST feedback.     

再探温跃层有孔虫B/Ca与温度和[CO32-]的依赖性及其在24 ka以来热带西太平洋次表层碳酸盐系统重建中的应用

The B/Ca ratio of planktonic foraminifer shells has been used as a proxy for reconstructing past ocean carbonate chemistry. However, recent studies have revealed significant uncertainties associated with this proxy, such as whether seawater temperature or [ CO_3~(2-)] is the dominant control on the partition coefficient(K_D) of planktonic foraminiferal B/Ca. To address these uncertainties and thus improve our understanding of the planktonic foraminiferal B/Ca proxy, we analysed B/Ca ratios in the tests of Neogloboquadrina dutertrei(300–355 μm) and Pulleniatina obliquiloculata(355–400 μm) in surface sediment samples from the tropical western Pacific and South China Sea. The relationship between these B/Ca ratios and bottom water calcite saturation states(Δ[ CO_3~(2-)]) is weak, thus suggesting only a small dissolution effect on the B/Ca of the two species. The correlation coefficients(R~2) between the B/Ca ratios of N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata and environmental parameters(e.g., temperature, salinity, phosphate, DIC and ALK) in the tropical western Pacific and South China Sea are not high enough to justify using B/Ca ratios as a palaeoenvironmental proxy in the study areas. The significant correlation between K_D values of N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata and carbonate system parameters(e.g.,[ CO_3~(2-)], DIC, ALK, pH and [ HCO_3~-]) in the study area reflect chemical links between the K_D denominator and these variables. Based on our surface sediment calibration, an empirical relationship between the K_D of N.dutertrei and temperature is proposed in the tropical western Pacific. We also generated a record of B/Ca ratios in N. dutertrei(300–355 μm) from Core MD06-3052 in the tropical western Pacific over the past 24 ka to evaluate the application of the revised B/Ca proxy method. Based on the reconstructed empirical relationship for B/Ca and subsurface seawater ALK, we estimated subsurface seawater carbonate system parameters in the tropical western Pacific since 24 ka. In general, the estimated subsurface seawater pH and [ CO_3~(2-)] show an increase with time, and the record of subsurface seawater pCO_2 shows a decrease with time, in the tropical western Pacific over the past 24 ka. The consistent trends in subsurface seawater pCO_2 and opal flux during deglaciation may imply that the reported increase in subsurface water pCO_2 in the study area was promoted by enhanced upwelling in the Southern Ocean.     

北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响

基于1951—2018年哈德里中心海温资料、美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心再分析资料和第四代欧洲中心汉堡模式, 针对1994年、2018年等西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)生成异常多的年份, 研究了引起TC增加的海表温度异常(SSTA)模态及其影响机制。结果表明, 北半球热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋变冷是夏季西北太平洋TC生成频数增加的主要原因, 北大西洋负三极型式SSTA促使TC生成的进一步增加。热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋冷却在菲律宾以东激发出西风异常和气旋性环流异常。北大西洋负三极型式SSTA在我国南海、菲律宾至东南沿岸激发出气旋性环流异常。前者在西北太平洋中部, 后者在南海产生有利于TC生成的局地环境。1994年和2018年夏季热带中太平洋出现暖SSTA、印度洋为冷SSTA、北大西洋呈现负三极型式SSTA, 西北太平洋TC生成频数极端增多。近30年来, 当出现热带中太平洋增暖和印度洋冷却时, 北大西洋表现出比1989年以前更强的负三极型式SSTA, 使西北太平洋TC生成频数和北半球热带印度洋-太平洋SSTA梯度的线性相关更显著。     

基于TRMM PR探测资料的青藏高原东坡降水结构特征分析

利用热带测雨卫星(TRMM)探测资料和ERA5再分析资料,研究了2006年7月6日发生在青藏高原东坡的一次强降水过程,并在此基础上分析了青藏高原东坡夏季(6—8月)的降水结构特征。研究结果表明：青藏高原东坡较强降水个例发生在低层辐合、高层辐散的降水环境背景场中,雨带呈东北-西南分布,最大降水强度超过20 mm·h-1。对流降水回波顶高超过17 km,层状降水回波顶高低于15 km,6.5 km高度存在亮带,且外形也似非高原地区的层状降水垂直结构。统计分析表明在高原东部偏南区、高原东部与四川盆地交界区南部的夏季降水频次高,而在高原东部偏北及四川盆地的降水频次、对流和层状降水频次均比上述地区小;多年夏季的日均降水量分布大体与降水频次分布类似。降水反射率因子的垂直结构具有地域性特点,高原东部偏南和偏北区的回波垂直结构相似,因受到地形高度的压缩,其降水垂直结构与非高原地区的不同;而高原东部与四川盆地交接区的降水垂直结构外形,介于高原与非高原之间;四川盆地的对流降水和层状降水垂直结构与中国东部平原及热带副热带洋面的相近,但层状降水的亮带高度高出1 km。     

Seasonal variability of tropical cyclones generated over the South China Sea

The seasonal variability of tropical cyclones (CTCs) generated over the South China Sea (SCS) from 1948 to 2003 is analyzed. It peaks in occurrence in August and few generate in late winter (from January to March). The seasonal activity is attributed to the variability of atmosphere and ocean environments associated with the monsoon system. It is found that the monsoonal characteristics of the SCS basically determine the region of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in each month.     

一次爆发性东海低压发展引起的海上强风分析

2006年6月1日受突然发展的东海低压影响,舟山全市普降暴雨或大暴雨,舟山沿海出现9～11级东到东北大风。通过分析发现：台湾附近的地面倒槽在华南沿海西南气流的引导下北抬,到舟山海域正好遇上高空深厚的低涡东移,高、低空系统的垂直耦合是地面低压发展的关键;中低层的强温度平流造成抬升运动,产生降水并释放潜热,也是低压发展不可或缺的条件。     

2005年登陆我国热带气旋统计特征

本文通过对2005年登陆我国的热带气旋进行统计分析,概括了2005年登陆我国热带气旋的特点,总结了2005年登陆热带气旋的一些有价值的规律。本文的工作有助于提高对登陆热带气旋规律的认识和做好热带气旋路径的预报工作。     

两个同源地不同路径热带气旋的大尺度场对比分析

本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析格点资料,着重对8903号"BRENDA"和0601号"珍珠"两个同源地进入南海后不同路径的典型热带气旋的大尺度环境场进行对比分析。结果表明:西风槽的强弱和东移的快慢、西太平洋副高的形状变化和东退西进、冷空气的强弱和南下路径及热带气旋内部的不对称结构是造成二者移动路经差异的主要原因。另,印缅槽的变化也对其路径差异有一定的作用。     

澳大利亚冷空气活动对西北太平洋热带辐合带强度的影响

利用1959～2004年纬向风的NCEP/NCAR候平均再分析资料分析和中国科学院大气物理研究所研制的9层大气环流模式(IAP9L-AGCM)数值试验,考察了南半球越赤道气流和澳大利亚冷空气活动对西北太平洋ITCZ和台风的影响。研究发现:100°E～165°E向北越赤道气流与ITCZ的强度增强具有明显的关系;10～15 d前130°E～140°E与150°E～160°E越赤道气流的加强对145°E～170°E位置上ITCZ强度的增加具有指示意义。越赤道气流强度对同期110°E～140°E经度ITCZ位置的变化也有影响。数值试验表明:南半球澳大利亚冷空气的活动是造成越赤道气流加强的重要原因,澳大利亚地区受较强冷空气影响时易造成100°E～160°E经度带越赤道气流的加强,特别是140°E～165°E的越赤道气流有利于ITCZ强度增加,导致西北太平洋热带气旋的发生和加强。