基于星载SAR的滑坡灾害形变特征分析

为准确监测重点滑坡的活动状态,预防潜在的地质灾害,本文基于4景ALOS-2数据,利用改进的Pixel-Tracking技术获取金沙江白格滑坡2017—2018年间3个连续时间段内的运动分布,试验结果显示,滑坡体运动存在显著的时空差异性,通过对不同时段的速度对比后显示,该滑坡在灾害发生前期滑动位移存在明显的加速趋势。     

基于非线性统一强度理论下的边坡稳定性极限平衡分析

在边坡稳定性分析中,常采用的强度准则一般较少考虑中主应力对边坡破坏效应的影响,然而岩体的实际应力状况表明中主应力存在,且中主应力对边坡岩体的强度潜能发挥起着重要作用。基于考虑中主应力的统一强度理论下的Hoek-Brown(简称H-B)准则,通过对滑动面上的应力进行假设,并采用泰勒级数简化统一强度理论下的H-B准则表达式,然后根据滑动体满足所有静力平衡条件求解滑动面上的应力,进而得到边坡的安全系数。当中主应力影响系数b=0时(即为基本H-B强度准则),与等效的线性Mohr-Coulomb(简称M-C)强度准则下的瑞典法1、简化Bishop法、Spencer法和Morgenstern-Price(简称M-P)法以及基于统一强度理论下的瑞典法2进行算例对比分析,验证了方法的可行性。同时,以边坡的坡高H、坡角β和b为变量进行参数分析,研究表明:b增大(即中主应力对边坡的破坏效应影响越大)时,计算所得的安全系数增大,由此表明基本H-B强度准则下分析所得的边坡稳定性偏于安全。另外,由于提出的方法能够满足滑动体的所有静力平衡条件,且对未考虑条间作用力影响所得滑动面上的初始正应力进行了修正,故此方法较瑞典法2所得结果要大且更为严格。     

结合PCA和滑动时窗的电离层异常探测方法研究

针对主成分分析（PCA）方法探测电离层异常时探测范围有限且无法区分正负扰动的问题,提出一种结合PCA和滑动时窗的探测方法,并以3次强震为例检测其异常探测能力。结果显示,PCA-滑动时窗方法同时具备了2种方法的探测优势,相较于滑动时窗法,其探测结果更加直观、简明,且不易受空间环境影响,有相对更高的异常探测置信度和可靠度;相较于PCA方法,其能更好地用于长时间时空异常探测,并准确区分出正负异常。另外,通过进一步分析2020年瓦哈卡地震后发现,电离层在震前11~13 d、9 d及4~6 d出现明显异常,且异常位于震中偏南区域。综合4次地震可知,异常主要出现在震中偏南方向,大多呈共轭结构。     

基于ARMA模型的地磁偏角缺数处理方法

针对地震仪器记录的地磁数据存在单点缺失和连续多点缺失而不利于地震数据处理和地震预报的问题,同时为了快速处理非震异常值,本文提出将时间序列自回归移动平均（ARMA）预测模型用于地磁数据插值处理,并与均值插值、线性插值进行对比分析。结果表明,均值插值、线性插值和 ARMA 模型单点缺失的平均标准误差分别为 0.110 2、0.006 9 和 0.000 1,连续多点缺失的平均标准误差分别为 0.258 23、0.194 2 和 0.004 86,说明 ARMA 模型在单点缺失和连续多点缺失时均具有较低标准误差,且能很好地保持实际观测序列的曲线形态,插值效果较好,有望成为地磁数据序列处理的一种新方法。     

Mean Flow–Storm Track Relationship and Rossby Wave Breaking in Two Types of El-Nino简

The features of large-scale circulation, storm tracks and the dynamical relationship between them were examined by investigating Rossby wave breaking （RWB） processes associated with Eastern Pacific （EP） and Central Pacific （CP） E1-Nifio. During EP E1-Nino, the geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa （Z500） exhibits a Pacific-North America （PNA） pattern. During CP EI-Nifio, the Z500 anomaly shows a north positive-south negative pattern over the North Pacific. The anomalous distributions of baroclinicity and storm track are consistent with those of upper-level zonal wind for both EP and CP EI-Nino, suggesting impacts of mean flow on storm track variability. Anticyclonic wave breaking （AWB） oczurs less frequently in EP EI-Nino years, while cyclonic wave breaking （CWB） occurs more frequently in CP EI-Nino years over the North Pacific sector. Outside the North Pacific, more CWB events occur over North America during EP Ei-NiNo. When AWB events occur less frequently over the North Pacific during EP EI-Nino, Z500 decreases locally and the zonal wind is strengthened （weakened） to the south （north）. This is because AWB events reflect a monopoie high anomaly at the centroid of breaking events. When CWB events occur more frequently over the North Pacific under CP EI-Nino conditions, and over North America under EP EI-Nino condition, Z500 increases （decreases） to the northeast （southwest）, since CWB events are related to a northeast-southwest dipole Z500 anomaly. The anomalous RWB events act to invigorate and reinforce the circulation anomalies over the North Pacific-North America region linked with the two types of EI-Nino.     

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation simulated by four Chinese AGCMs participating in the CMIP5 project

The performances of four Chinese AGCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） in the simulation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation （BSISO） are assessed. The authors focus on the major characteristics of BSISO： the intensity, significant period, and propagation. The results show that the four AGCMs can reproduce boreal summer intraseasonal signals of precipitation; however their limitations are also evident. Compared with the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation （CMAP） data, the models underestimate the strength of the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO） over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean （IO） during the boreal summer （May to October）, but overestimate the intraseasonal variability over the western Pacific （WP）. In the model results, the westward propagation dominates, whereas the eastward propagation dominates in the CMAP data. The northward propagation in these models is tilted southwest-northeast, which is also different from the CMAP result. Thus, there is not a northeast-southwest tilted rain belt revolution off the equator during the BSISO＇s eastward journey in the models. The biases of the BSISO are consistent with the summer mean state, especially the vertical shear. Analysis also shows that there is a positive feedback between the intraseasonal precipitation and the summer mean precipitation. The positive feedback processes may amplify the models＇ biases in the BSISO simulation.     

国外海洋预报动态

<正>1 NOAA启用新的物理海洋实时系统NOAA官员于2014年7月23日宣布,杰克逊维尔海运交易所和港务局正式启用了一套新的信息系统,这将提高圣约翰河的船舶安全。这套物理海洋实时系统Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System(PORTS能够提供水位、水流、气象条件、高潮时桥梁净空高度(指平均大潮高潮面或江河高水位(设计最高通航水位)至桥下净空宽度中下梁最低点的垂直距离)的实时信息,这为通过该河的船舶提供了关键信息。杰克逊维尔的圣约翰河将成为第23个利用PORTS系统的港口,其系统规模排第二。商务部海洋和大     

基于ADS40无控条件的海岛礁地形测量方法研究

针对远离大陆的海岛礁地形测绘与高程基准转换困难的问题,基于ADS40航摄系统获取远离大陆的海岛礁区域遥感影像,按照GPS差分无地面控制点的空中三角测量模式实现海岛礁的地理定位,选择高精度的卫星测高模型实现海岛礁区域的高程基准转换。在某海域进行了ADS40测量作业与高程基准转换试验,结果表明,无地面控制点空中三角测量的平面精度达到0.587m;基于卫星测高模型进行垂直基准转换的精度与同步验潮水位观测法得到的高程传递精度相当。     

平均海面传递方法的比较与选择

给出了常用平均海面传递方法的假设条件。以中国沿岸典型验潮站为例,统计不同同步时长下各传递方法的精度。统计分析表明,同步时长在7d内时应慎用回归分析法;最小二乘拟合法的假设条件缺乏相关的理论支持,只适用于潮差变化较小的区域;同步改正法在同步7d时基本能保证极值误差在10cm内,而同步15d与同步30d的精度相当,能达到厘米级。基于分析结果给出了传递方法的选择建议,为提高中短期验潮站的平均海面确定精度提供了依据。     

Dinophysis caudata generated lipophilic shellfish toxins in bivalves from the Nanji Islands,East China Sea

A 12-month program of monitoring potentially toxic microalgae(that produce lipophilic shellfi sh toxins; LSTs) and their toxins in bivalves was conducted from April 2006 to March 2007 in the Nanji Islands, East China Sea. Two Dinophysis species, D. caudata and D. acuminata, were identifi ed, and D. caudat a was found to be the dominant species. D. caudata was detected in water samples between April and June 2006, and between February and March 2007. It reached its highest abundances in May, with a mean abundance of 1.38×10 2 cells/L in surface water and 1.25×10 2 cells/L in bottom water(10 m deep). The temporal distribution of D. caudata was associated with the occurrence of LSTs in bivalve samples, which mostly occurred at the same time as D. caudata blooms, between April and July 2006. All of the cultured bivalves sampled between April and June were contaminated with LSTs, with an average toxicity of 85 μg okadaic acid(OA) eq./100 g meat, which was four times higher than the Chinese regulatory limit(20 μg OA eq./100 g meat). Ten out of fi fteen wild samples(66.7%) collected during the same period were positive for LSTs, and contained an average LST toxicity of 45 μg OA eq./100 g meat(more than twice the regulatory value). Cultured Patinopecten yessoensis collected on 15 May 2006 had the highest toxicity, 320 μg OA eq./100 g meat, and relatively high toxicities(80 to 160 μg OA eq./100 g meat) were found in bivalves until the end of July.