气候变化对水循环与水资源的影响研究综述

以全球变暖为主的气候变化已成为当前世界最重要的环境问题之一。气候变化对水循环与水资源影响的研究越来越引起国内外学者的的高度关注和重视。简要回顾了国内外气候变化对水文水资源影响研究的发展历程,着重论述了目前气候变化对水文水资源影响的重点研究领域:水循环要素变化的检测与归因分析、气候变化与人类活动对水循环与水资源影响的定量评估、未来气候变化情景下水循环与水资源的演变趋势预估、气候变化对极端水文事件的影响研究和应对气候变化的水资源适应性管理策略;并介绍了气候变化对水文水资源影响研究中的气候变化情景、水文模拟及陆-气模型耦合等重要技术手段。最后,针对目前研究中存在的问题及薄弱环节,提出未来研究的发展趋势和亟需解决的关键问题。     

开封地区宋元时期洪涝灾害与气候变化

整理分析历史文献资料,提取出北宋和元代开封地区的洪涝灾害信息,对比探讨两个时期洪涝灾害发生特征及其反映的气候变化。结果表明,宋元开封地区洪灾频发,平均2.75~2.89 a发生1次,北宋以中度雨涝为主,元代以河流决溢大灾为主。北宋前70 a洪灾频发,元代则两头少中间多。宋元洪灾主要集中于夏秋季节,夏季风降水增多或集中是其主要驱动力。北宋洪灾空间差异较小,元代则因距离黄河改道远近而差异较大。北宋前期约40 a气候偏干,之后干湿波动频繁,元代相对湿润并延续至后期;宋元洪灾均具有共同的准3、7 a周期。     

资料集锦

正地理学为何比以往任何时候更重要地理史正在复兴吗?《纽约客》的一篇书评聚焦新近出版的三本著作:《大西洋月刊》记者罗伯特·D.卡普兰(Robert D.Kaplan)的《地理学的复仇》(The Revenge of Geography),作家、密歇根州立大学教授、同时也是曾任ABC电视台《早安美国》地理编辑七年之久的哈姆·德·布雷(Harmde Blij)的新版《地理学为什么重要》(Why Geography Matters),以及两位地理学教授迪恩纳尔(Alexander C.Diener)和哈根     

欧盟碳减排目标的经济可能性评估

经济发展与能源消耗有着密切的关系,文章通过选取1994年至2009年欧盟27国的人口、经济和能源数据,利用碳排放动力学模型对欧盟关于2050年前削减温室气体排放80-95%的承诺进行预测,并对欧盟目标下的减排情景进行了分析。结果表明：（1）以当前的技术进步速率下,沿最优平稳经济增长路线,到2050年欧盟的碳排放量将为775.608MtC,达不到预定的减排要求;（2）在最优经济增长速度得出总能源消费量的基础上,采用调整能源结构与碳捕捉技术,预期可以达到设定减排80%的任务。其每一期的煤炭占比、石油占比、天然气占比应分别有4%、2.26%、1.23%转移至非碳能源占比,非碳能源的上升速率应达到2.21%/年;（3）若以历史的能源结构转移趋势预测未来的能源结构占比,即使考虑能源利用效率和碳捕捉技术的预期目标,欧盟仍然达不到在2050年的减排目标;（4）考虑欧盟提出的四种减排路径上下限组合,可预计出到2050年欧盟的减排范围在80.51%-87.16%;（5）若欧盟重振工业（特别是制造业）,即使考虑欧盟制定的减排路径,仍存在着达不到减排预期的可能。     

中国南方调整水稻种植格局——一种水稻生产预先适应气候变化的选择(英文)

Rice planted in southern China accounts for 94% of the total in sown acreage and 88% of the total in production, which matters a lot to Chinese food security. However, due to the prolonged conflict between water availability and rice growth in spatial/temporal distribu-tion, rice production suffers from seasonal drought at acreage of 16%-22%, which compro-mises food production capacity and food security. Focusing on the spatial distribution of seasonal drought with rice and the practices to adapt to it, and based on an analysis of bal-anced water supply for and demand by rice at a growing season scale during 1981-2030, this paper assesses the changing seasonal drought in the process of rice production under the changing climate in the future, and identifies general rice re-cultivation options for climate change adaptation. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Rice suggests a decline in seasonal drought, with early season rice (early rice hereafter) by 12,500 km2, middle season rice (middle rice) by 80,000 km2, and in particular late season rice (late rice) by 25,000 km2, which accounts for almost 20% of its cultivated acreage. It is indicated that due to climate change, seasonal drought in major rice producing areas tends to alleviate in general, late season rice in particular. (2) Future climate change brings about a significant impact on the spatial/temporal distribution of water resources in rice producing areas in China. Based on ’pre-designed’ adaptation actions for rice-re-cultivation, the rice cultivation pattern undergoes a significant alteration between 1981-2000 and 2001-2030. In eastern Guizhou and western Hunan, the pattern of single early plus single dry farming is changed into double cropping. In eastern Hunan, the pattern of dry cropping is changed into single early plus single dry farming. In northern Anhui, the pattern of dry farming cropping is changed into middle rice. All this is aimed at a potential adequate availability of water for rice production in the future. (3) Rice re-cultivation patterns developed in this paper help re-balance water demand and supply for rice growth using the spatial analysis tool to adapt rice growth to the changing water avail-ability from spatial perspective, and come up with rice producer-friendly re-cultivation options in response to climate change.     

A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields

Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate relatively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale (e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale). Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.     

青藏高原植被覆盖变化及其与气候变化的关系

近几十年来,全球气候变化对青藏高原植被覆盖产生了重要影响。基于青藏高原1981—2005年遥感影像及同期气象数据,结合生态学模型,分析了青藏高原植被覆盖度变化趋势及其与气候变化的关系。结果显示,25 a间,青藏高原温度升高、降水量增加,植被覆盖度呈"整体升高、局部退化"趋势;地表植被改善区主要位于植被低覆盖区,退化区主要位于高覆盖区;从不同植被类型看,除针叶林、阔叶林受采伐影响覆盖度下降外,其他植被覆盖度均不同程度的上升;植被覆盖度变化与同期降水量变化、温度变化均呈正相关,且具有明显的区域差异。     

东北地区积雪变化及对气候变化的响应

利用东北地区1961-2017年162个气象站点逐日气象观测数据,分析了积雪的变化及其与气候变化的关系。结果表明:(1)平均年积雪日数和累积积雪深度为75.3 d和582.1 cm,呈高纬多低纬少、山地多平原少的分布,大兴安岭北部、小兴安岭和长白山区积雪日数达140 d以上,积雪日数多的地方累积积雪深度也较深。(2)平均积雪初终日和积雪期分别为11月7日、4月1日和145 d,积雪初日自大兴安岭北部向辽宁沿海地区推进;积雪初日早的地区积雪结束的也晚,积雪期更长,黑龙江大部分地区均超过了150 d。(3)积雪日数和累积积雪深度最大值均出现在1月,以1月下旬最多;积雪初日和终日最多分别出现在11月和3月,以11月上旬和3月下旬最多。(4)年积雪日数和累积积雪深度分别以1.88 d·(10a)~(-1)和71.94 cm·(10a)~(-1)的速率增加,在21世纪10年代达到年代最高值,秋季、冬季和春季积雪日数和累积积雪深度均呈增加趋势,冬季增加最为显著。积雪初日显著推迟、积雪终日提前、积雪期缩短,变化速率分别为1.44 d·(10a)~(-1)、-2.27 d·(10a)~(-1)和-3.72 d·(10a)~(-1);162个气象站点中,积雪日数和累积积雪深度均有75%以上的站点呈增加趋势,积雪初日推迟、积雪终日提前和积雪期缩短的站点分别为86.4%、98.1%和96.3%。(5)冬半年积雪受降水量(有效降雪量)的影响要大于平均气温的影响;积雪初日与11月平均气温和10月降水量相关性较好,积雪终日与2月温度因子相关性较好;随着纬度的升高和海拔的抬升,积雪日数和累积积雪深度增加,积雪初日提前、积雪终日推后、积雪期延长。     

2021年3月中旬东亚中部沙尘天气地面起尘量及源区贡献率估算

2021年3月中旬,东亚中部包括中国北方大部分地区,爆发了持续性的沙尘天气,引发了人们对于沙尘源区、防风固沙生态建设工程效益的高度关注.提出了一个新的地表起尘量估算方法,使用高精度、大范围的气象数据,计算了这次沙尘天气的地面起沙条件、大风过程中的输沙状况,估算了不同时刻的起尘量,获得了14、15日蒙古和中国北方荒漠地区...     

观点

正中国气象局:三峡工程对气候影响小面对近十年来全球普遍出现的极端气候状况,国际上出现了不少对于大型人造工程的质疑。中国气象局和世界气象组织7月1日在瑞士日内瓦发布的"三峡工程气候效应评估报告的决策者摘要(SPM)"认为,三峡水库对附近的气候有一定影响,但影响明显的范围不超过20公里。全球气候变化是极端天气气候事件频发的大背景,