长三角盛夏—初秋强降水的延伸期过程预报探析

针对长三角汛期强降水过程,根据不同降水类型的特性,提出分时段建立低频模型并给出建模流程。综合分析长三角汛期强降水期的低频特性,将低频气旋及反气旋区分划分7个关键区。重点研究盛夏—初秋时段的强降水特征,在总结强降水期低频特征的基础上,借助EOF分解建立延伸期大—暴雨的预报模型:1区或2区有低频气旋维持并发展;6区、7区或5区存在低频反气旋。并且在7个关键区中1、2区的低频气旋及5、6、7区的低频反气旋为主要低频系统,起决定作用,而3区的低频系统为次要低频系统,起辅助作用。利用该模型提前30 d预报出2012年汛期最强降水过程,并分析本次过程的低频系统演变,给出动态演变模型。     

坛紫菜（Porphyra haitanensis）丝状藻体生长增殖的优化调控培养条件研究

丝状藻体是紫菜生活史中的重要阶段,其生长增殖与环境条件密切相关.本研究考察了与坛紫菜丝状藻体生长增殖相关的多个影响因子,探讨了可促进坛紫菜丝状藻体生长、达到生长速率快的优化调控培养条件.具体操作实施过程为：初始丝状藻体来自成熟紫菜叶状体的果孢子释放,基于8因子3水平的正交实验设计方案[采用正交表L27（313）],确定了丝状藻体生长对多个环境因子的响应以及优化的调控培养条件.结果表明,除开pH、复合维生素浓度和NaHCO3浓度外,其他因子对丝状藻体生长均有显著的影响（p≤0.043 8）.获得的优化调控培养条件为：温度18℃、光强27μmol/m2·s-1、盐度25、pH值8.5、复合维生素浓度15μg/dm3、NaHCO3浓度2 mg/dm3、每天光照时数18 h、营养液浓度为f培养介质.优化调控培养条件下的丝状藻体生长速率高达12.07%,平均值±标准偏差SD为（10.70±0.88）%/d.     

The Interdecadal Changes of South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature in the Mid-1990s and Their Connections with ENSO简

The characteristic changes of South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） for the period January 1979 to December 2011, during which the 1990s Pacific pan-decadal variability （PDV） interdecadal regime shifts occurred, were examined. Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis was applied to the monthly mean SSTA for two sub-periods： January 1979 to December 1994 （P 1） and January 1996 to December 2011 （P2）. Both the spatial and temporal features of the leading EOF mode for P1 and P2 showed a remarkable difference. The spatial structure of the leading EOF changed from a tripolar pattern for P 1 （EOF-P 1） to a dipole-like pattern for P2 （EOF-P2）. Besides, EOF-P 1 （EOF-P2） had significant spectral peaks at 4.6 yr （2.7 yr）. EOF-P2 not only had a closer association with E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, but also showed a faster response to ENSO than EOF-P1 based on their lead-lag relationships with ENSO. During the development of ENSO, the South Pacific SSTA associated with ENSO for both PI and P2 showed a significant eastward propagation. However, after the peak of ENSO, EOF-P1 showed a stronger persistence than EOF-P2, which still showed eastward propagation. The variability of the SSTA associated with the whole process of ENSO evolution during P1 and the SSTA associated with the development of ENSO during P2 support the existence of ocean-to-atmosphere forcing, but the SSTA associated with the decay of ENSO shows the phenomenon of atmosphere-to-ocean forcing.     

Intraseasonal Oscillation of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon and Its Influence on Regionally Persistent Heavy Rain over Southern China

The intraseasonal oscillation（ISO） in the South China Sea summer monsoon（SCSSM） and its influence on regionally persistent heavy rain（RPHR） over southern China are examined by using satelhte outgoing long wave radiation,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis,and gridded rainfall station data in China from 1981 to 2010.The most important feature of the ISO in SCSSM,contributing to the modulation of RPHR,is found to be the fluctuation in the western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH）,along with a close link to the Madden-Julian oscillation（MJO）.Southern China is divided into three regions by using rotated empirical orthogonal functions（REOFs）for intraseasonal rainfall,where the incidence rate of RPHR is closely linked to the intraseasonal variation in rainfall.It is found that SCSSM ISOs are the key systems controlling the intraseasonal variability in rainfall and can be described by the leading pair of empirical orthogonal functions（EOFs） for the 850-hPa zonal wind over the SCS and southern China.Composite analyses based on the principal components（PCs） of the EOFs indicate that the ISO process in SCSSM exhibits as the east-west oscillation of the WPSH,which is coupled with the northward-propagating MJO,creating alternating dry and wet phases over southern China with a period of 40 days.The wet phases provide stable and lasting circulation conditions that promote RPHR.However,differences in the ISO structures can be found when RPHR occurs in regions where the WPSH assumes different meridional positions.Further examination of the meridional-phase structure suggests an important role of northward-propagating ISO and regional air-sea interaction in the ISO process in SCSSM.     

深层黏性土变形破坏的影响因素分析

河南刘河煤矿矿二1煤层上为厚度20~40m的第四系覆盖层,其中黏土层平均厚度为6.6m。由于第四系孔隙水含水组的四个含水段均为富水性中等及以上含水层,所以该层黏性土在受到上覆高压影响后能否控制顶板突水显得尤为关键,是解决新生界含水层下的安全开采的关键问题。通过室内实验测得该矿深度约在150m的4个钻孔土样的物理参数和土颗粒级配分析,按实验结果模拟深层黏性土,考虑受力面积、含水率和厚度3个影响黏性土破坏的主要因素,利用正交实验原理安排实验。结果表明,受力面积和含水率越大,黏性土的破坏程度增大;黏性土的厚度越大,破坏程度相应减小;3个因素中,受力面积的影响最大;当黏性土含水率在10%~25%,受力面积越小,厚度越大,黏性土不易发生破坏。该研究对预防和保证矿山安全生产具有重要意义。     

迭代最近点匹配算法的树结构k近邻搜索比较研究

为提高ICP匹配算法中k近邻搜索的存储和计算效率,本文分析总结了几种树结构k近邻搜索算法,利用模拟和实测数据实验对比研究了它们对ICP匹配结果的影响。实验结果表明,几种算法的拉入范围相同,匹配精度差异较小,主要差异在于搜索效率不同。其中,主轴搜索树k近邻算法的存储结构较优,近似搜索策略的计算效率较高,使得基于主轴树近似搜索的匹配效率最高。     

北半球平流层臭氧的时空分布特征

利用1963－1985年北半球的平流层臭氧观测资料，采用自然平交分解方法，初步分析了北半球、特别是东亚地区大气臭氧层的时空分布特征。结果表明：（1）北半球大气臭氧的空分间分布可能与下垫面的性能有关；（2）东亚地区大气臭氧的时间分布主要具有2年和11年变化的周期特征，这与太阳黑子的准2年和准11年变化有一定的对应关系；（3）北美地区的臭氧变化则主要包含4年和7年的周期变经成分。     

异心球形电容器电容的精确解

提出了导体系统电容问题求解的一种新方法，借助双球面坐标系和平行板电容公式，求出了异心球形电容器电容的解析式。此外，对另外几种类型异体系统的电容也作了讨论。     

低频时码信号正交解调技术研究

采用正交叠加和正交采样技术，提出了更大程度上数字化的低频时码信号正交解调的设计方案。同时，分析了这种解调方法的虚假抑制和抗镜像干扰能力。分析表明所论述的解调技术易于实现数字化，且成本低廉，具有一定的实用价值。     

典型潜水层苯系物污染羽稳定性主控因子及统计建模

场地或区域地下水污染羽能否达到稳定及其稳定性特征直接决定自然衰减修复的可行性.本文构建了从上到下依次为潜水层、弱透水层、承压层的典型含水结构,模拟量化潜水层恒定源地下水污染羽迁移扩散,以污染羽稳定面积、稳定浓度和稳定所需时间为特征因子,充分考虑可能影响污染羽迁移扩散的水文地质和水化学参数.首先通过敏感性分析筛选出较敏感因子,然后利用正交试验进行主控因子识别,最后采用多元回归模型构建特征因子与主控因子的定量统计关系.结果表明,对污染羽特征因子具有广泛影响的主控因子为降解系数、弥散度、渗流速度和源浓度,特征因子与主控因子之间具有良好的统计关系,根据实际情况可选用不同主控因子数量表征的统计模型对特征因子进行预测,这将为基于自然衰减修复的场地或区域地下水污染优化控制与高效修复提供重要依据.