Impact of Preceding Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on Early Autumn Precipitation over Central China

This study examined the impact of the preceding boreal summer（June–August） North Atlantic Oscillation（NAO） on early autumn（September） rainfall over Central China（RCC）. The results show that a significant positive correlation exists between the preceding summer NAO and the early autumn RCC on the interannual timescale. In order to understand the physical mechanism between them, the role of ocean was investigated. It was found that the strong summer NAO can induce a tripole sea surface temperature anomaly（SSTA） in the North Atlantic; this SSTA pattern can persist until early autumn. The diagnostic analysis showed that the tripole SSTA pattern excites a downstream Atlantic-Eurasian（AEA） teleconnection, which contributes to an increase in RCC. The circulation anomalies related to SSTA caused by the weak NAO are opposite, so the RCC is less than normal. The results imply that the preceding summer NAO may be regarded as a forecast factor for the early autumn RCC.     

河流水-气界面CO2脱气时间尺度变化研究进展

河流作为连接陆地和海洋碳库之间的通道,是全球内陆水体碳排放最主要的载体,在全球碳循环中发挥着至关重要的作用。全球河流水-气界面二氧化碳（CO₂）脱气显著的时间异质性特征研究有助于深入理解其碳循环过程与机制,也为准确评估碳通量以及完善碳循环模型提供了科学支撑。本文系统梳理了国内外的相关研究成果,总结了目前河流CO₂脱气通量在昼夜、季节以及多年尺度上的动态变化及其影响因素,指出其昼夜变化与季节变化存在一定的周期性,并对不同空间尺度上CO₂脱气通量的时间差异进行讨论。同时分析当前研究中的不足,认为缺乏河流二氧化碳分压（pCO₂）与CO₂脱气系数（k）高分辨率且长期连续的直接测量,限制了河流CO₂脱气通量时间尺度变化的周期性及相互之间关系的厘定,使得气候变化与人类活动对河流CO₂脱气时间动态的影响仍然难以量化与预测。最后,根据目前存在的问题,展望了未来的研究重点,为全球河流水-气界面碳循环过程与机制、模型研究提供新的思路与方向,以及可以更准确地评估和预测未来河流碳排放的变化趋势。     

基于高频地波雷达的多时间尺度海流研究

近海海流受多种动力过程及岸线岛屿的作用呈现空间和时间尺度上的复杂变化,而地波雷达由于其探测面积广、时间分辨率高的特点成为研究这些变化的有效手段。本文利用舟山海域多年高频地波雷达资料,通过潮流调和分析、低通滤波和相关性分析对该海域海流潮周期、极端事件、季节、年际尺度的动力过程进行了解译。研究表明,舟山海域属于正规半日潮,潮流运动形式以顺时针旋转流为主,流速大小在空间上为东北方向较大,往西南方向逐渐减小,并在近岸处得到增强。余流的年际变化并不显著,但存在着明显的季节变化,例如冬季为南向流,流速减小,空间分布上近岸较外海大,而夏季与之反向,为北向流,流速较大,空间分布较为均匀。进一步分析了风与余流之间的相关性,在大风期间,风与余流的速度相关系数在0.48～0.90之间,方向相关系数在0.55～0.68之间。极端事件发生时,速度、方向的相关系数分别高达0.92与0.91。总体而言,通过分析高频地波雷达数据能够较好地反映舟山海域海流的时空特征,为海洋灾害监测和污染物、藻华的输运研究提供依据。     

Multiple time scale analysis of river runoff using wavelet transform for Dagujia River Basin, Yantai, China

Based on monOdy river runoff and meteorological data, a method of Morlet wavelet transform was used to analyze the multiple time scale characteristics of river runoffin the Dagnjia River Basin, Yantai City, Shandong Province. The results showed that the total annual river runoff in the Dagujia River Basin decreased significantly from 1966 to 2004, and the rate of decrease was 48×106m3/10yr, which was higher than the mean value of most rivers in China. Multiple time scale characteristics existed, which accounted for different aspects of the changes in annual river runoff, and the major periods of the runoff time series were identified as about 28 years, 14 years and 4 years with decreasing levels of fluctuation. The river runoff evolution process was controlled by changes in precipitation to a certain extent, but it was also greatly influenced by human activities. Also, for different time periods and scales, the impacts of climate changes and human activities on annual river runoff evolution occurred at the same time. Changes in the annual river runoffwere mainly associated with climate change before the 1980s and with human activities after 1981.     

乌力吉木仁河水文要素时间尺度变异分析

由于气候变化和人类活动的影响,水文要素的分布形式和参数可能在统计意义上产生了变异。为了揭示水文要素在时间尺度上的变异关系,将乌力吉木仁河梅林庙测站1956~2000年的逐月径流资料,按照不同的时间尺度划分为季度、汛/非汛期和年径流序列,利用水文变异诊断系统分别对其进行变异诊断,并查阅相关文献得出剧烈的人类活动是导致变异的主要原因。通过归纳不同时间尺度的变异诊断结果得出,对于按照季度尺度划分的径流序列,不同月份径流量占年径流量的比例是影响季度变异的主要因素,在变异程度方面,第一季度的变异程度最大,而第三季度的变异程度则最小;对于汛/非汛期尺度划分的径流序列,其变异则受所包含月份的综合影响,且月径流量比例系数越大,其影响程度也越大;对于年径流序列,其变异则主要受到第三季度或汛期径流的影响。     

An Approach for Improving Short-Term Prediction of Summer Rainfall over North China by Decomposing Interannual and Decadal Variability简

A statistical downscaling approach was developed to improve seasonal-to-interannual prediction of summer rainfall over North China by considering the effect of decadal variability based on observational datasets and dynamical model outputs.Both predictands and predictors were first decomposed into interannual and decadal components.Two predictive equations were then built separately for the two distinct timescales by using multivariate linear regressions based on independent sample validation.For the interannual timescale,850-hPa meridional wind and 500-hPa geopotential heights from multiple dynamical models＇ hindcasts and SSTs from observational datasets were used to construct predictors.For the decadal timescale,two well-known basin-scale SST decadal oscillation （the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation） indices were used as predictors.Then,the downscaled predictands were combined to represent the predicted/hindcasted total rainfall.The prediction was compared with the models＇ raw hindcasts and those from a similar approach but without timescale decomposition.In comparison to hindcasts from individual models or their multi-model ensemble mean,the skill of the present scheme was found to be significantly higher,with anomaly correlation coefficients increasing from nearly neutral to over 0.4 and with RMSE decreasing by up to 0.6 mm d-1.The improvements were also seen in the station-based temporal correlation of the predictions with observed rainfall,with the coefficients ranging from-0.1 to 0.87,obviously higher than the models＇ raw hindcasted rainfall results.Thus,the present approach exhibits a great advantage and may be appropriate for use in operational predictions.     

IODP 2013—2023科学计划发布

国际综合大洋钻探计划(Integrated Ocean Drilling Program,IODP,2003-2013)即将于2013年结束,2013年之后,IODP将改名为International Ocean Discovery Program,英文缩写仍为IODP。自2009年以来,国际学术界积极筹备2013年后的IODP。其中包括组织科学家撰写IODP 2013-2023年科学计划,该计划于2010年8月发布初稿,公开征求科学家意     

高被引论文选编

英国气象局的Walters等介绍了可应用于不同时间尺度的英国气象局统一模式和JULES(协同英国陆地环境模拟器)陆面模式(Global Atmosphere 6.0和Global Land 6.0,简称GA6.0/GL6.0)的最新科学配置。Global Atmosphere 6.0包含了ENDGame(大气模式的最新动力学框架)动力核心,它显著增加了中纬度的变率,改善了已知的模式偏差。     

重庆降水和赤道东太平洋海温相关的多时间尺度特征

采用小波分析和滑动相关技术,分析了重庆夏季降水和赤道东太平洋冬季海温的多时间尺度变化特征,发现两者之间的相关性在不同时间尺度上存在显著差异,而且这种相关性具有多时间尺度特征。     

光钟与氢钟联合的时间尺度算法研究

光钟的频率稳定度和不确定度达到了10^-18量级, 使其有望成为下一代的时间频率标准, 并可能用来重新定义国际单位“秒”. 时间尺度作为准确、连续标记时间流逝过程的基准, 是高精度时间产生的基础. 时间尺度的产生需要依赖连续稳定运行的原子钟, 而光钟作为实验室原型设备, 一般不能连续运行, 因此光钟参与时间尺度计算是个难点问题. 提出将Vondrak-Cepek组合滤波算法应用在光钟与氢钟联合计算的时间尺度, 以解决间歇运行的光钟参与时间尺度计算的难点问题. 首先利用氢钟的时差数据, 采用ALGOS算法计算获得连续稳定的氢钟时间尺度. 其次利用Vondrak-Cepek组合滤波算法将氢钟时间尺度与光钟的数据综合, 获得光钟参与计算的联合时间尺度. 最终试验结果证明, Vondrak-Cepek组合滤波算法有效提升光钟与氢钟联合时间尺度的性能,该时间尺度与协调世界时(Coordinated Universal Time, UTC)的时间偏差达到亚纳秒量级.