基于融合U-Net及ConvLSTM的海面高度异常预报方法研究

海面高度异常是反映海洋环境状况的主要变量之一。本文使用1993—2019年的融合月均海面高度异常数据,建立了基于深度学习的海面高度异常预测神经网络模型,提出了基于融合U型网络(U-Net)和卷积长短记忆网络(ConvLSTM)的中长期海面高度异常预报模型。在研究海域0.25°×0.25°的空间分辨率下,模型测试集预报结果的均方根误差和平均绝对误差分别为0.039 m和0.027 m,均优于全连接LSTM预报模型和ConvLSTM+CNN预报模型,为大中尺度的海面高度异常预报提供了新的方法。     

中国雷达强天气预警信息质量控制与集成应用

冰雹和龙卷等强对流天气容易产生严重气象灾害,而雷达可以为强对流天气提供高时效的监测信息。针对当前雷达业务系统仅提供单站预警,且强天气识别算法缺乏本地优化等问题,研究了全国雷达预警信息组网集成技术,为大范围监测中小尺度强对流天气提供及时高效的参考信息;通过对全国高空站3年0℃层高度资料的统计分析表明,雷达监测冰雹等算法的0℃层高度应在3~6km范围动态调整,提出了雷达强天气预警动态本地化等综合质量控制方法。通过质控前后统计分析表明,质量控制可以有效降低雷达预警的虚警率,虚警剔除率可达到95%以上;与雷电观测资料的检验结果显示,质控后的雷达预警信息与雷电分布具有较好的契合度。将基于上述组网集成与质量控制的综合技术应用于2016年6月23日盐城龙卷强天气监测,取得了较好的应用效果。     

海底管道水下气体扩散FLUENT仿真分析

海底管道气体扩散到自由表面的半径及泉涌高度是进行水下气体泄漏风险分析的关键因素。利用FLUENT软件中的VOF模型和DPM模型耦合方式,对海底管道气体竖向扩散进行了仿真。模拟了水气两相交界面的行为,研究了气泡粒子扩散过程,分析了气泡粒子的扩散半径及轴向位移,讨论了不同泄漏速率对水下气体上升时间及水气两相交界面中泉涌高度的影响。通过模型中的水气两相交界面中泉涌高度和上升时间与实验结果的比较,验证了模型在一定条件下的正确性。     

The vertical structure of the atmospheric boundary layer over the central Arctic Ocean

The tropopause height and the atmospheric boundarylayer （PBL） height as well as the variation of inversion layer above the floating ice surface are presented using GPS （global position system ） radiosonde sounding data and relevant data obtained by Chinas fourth arctic scientific expedition team over the central Arctic Ocean （86°-88°N, 144°-170°W） during the summer of 2010. The tropopause height is from 9.8 to 10.5 km, with a temperature range between -52.2 and -54.10C in the central Arctic Ocean. Two zones of maximum wind （over 12 m/s） are found in the wind profile, namely, low- and upper-level jets, located in the middle troposphere and the tropopause, respectively. The wind direction has a marked variation point in the two jets from the southeast to the southwest. The average PBL height determined by two methods is 341 and 453 m respectively. These two methods can both be used when the inversion layer is very low, but the results vary significantly when the inversion layer is very high. A significant logarithmic relationship exists between the PBL height and the inversion intensity, with a correlation coefficient of 0.66, indicating that the more intense the temperature inversion is, the lower the boundary layer will be. The observation results obviously differ from those of the third arctic expedition zone （800-85° N）. The PBL height and the inversion layer thickness are much lower than those at 870-88° N, but the inversion temperature is more intense, meaning a strong ice- atmosphere interaction in the sea near the North Pole. The PBL structure is related to the weather system and the sea ice concentration, which affects the observation station.     

作者更正

<正>由于本人的疏忽,在《海洋湖沼通报》2014年第一期~页刊登的论文《反映台湾以东黑潮流量变化的海表面高度关键区域的确定》中的摘要部分和结论部分中"黑潮流量的变化滞后该区域海表面高度1个月左右",均为"海表面高度的变化滞后黑潮流量变化1个月左右"的误写,在此予以更正。对此前文中的失误给读者带来的误导深表歉意。     

北太平洋500hpa候高度场的主成分分析

对太平洋500hPa候高度场和距平场进行了主成分分析,得出反映500hPa候高度特征的典型场。指出候高度场的第1特征向量的空间型是季节变化的主要型,它可解释总方差的74.5％,候高度场的其余特征向量与距平场的特征向量是按顺序的对应相似。这些典型场可以很好地描述北太平洋的大气环流特征。距平场的第1特征向量空间型清楚地反映了与厄尔·尼诺现象有关的环流型。     

利用GPS拖体在万山区域测量平均海面技术研究

Wanshan area has been chosen to be the specified field to calibrate and validate(Cal/Val) the HY-2 altimeter and its follow-on satellites. In March 2018, an experiment has been conducted to determine the sea surface height(SSH) under the HY-2 A ground track(Pass No. 203). A GPS towing-body(GPS-TB) was designed to measure the SSH covering an area of about 6 km×28 km wide centered on the HY-2 A altimeter satellite ground track. Three GPS reference stations, one tide gauge and a GPS buoy were placed in the research area, in order to process and resolve the kinematic solution and check the precision of the GPS-TB respectively. All the GPS data were calculated by the GAMIT/GLOBK software and TRACK module. The sea surface was determined by the GPS-TB solution and the tide gauge placed on Zhiwan Island. Then the sea surface of this area was interpolated by Arc GIS10.2 with ordinary Kriging method. The results showed that the precision of the GPS-TB is about 1.10 cm compared with the tide gauge placed nearby, which has an equivalent precision with the GPS buoy. The interpolated sea surface has a bias of –1.5–4.0 cm with standard deviation of 0.2–2.4 cm compared with the checking line. The gradient of the measured sea surface is about 1.62 cm/km along the HY-2 orbit which shows a good agreement compared with the CLS11 mean sea surface(MSS). In the Cal/Val of satellites, the sea surface between the tide gauge/GPS buoy and the footprint of altimeter can be improved by this work.     

储层毛细管压力曲线在东海油气储量计算中的应用

本文阐述了利用储层毛细管压力曲线计算含油炮和度的方法,该方法在东海油气储量计算中取得良好的结果。     

试用500hPa高度资料做中长期雾日预测

利用鲁西南地区雾日与同期、前期全球500hPa高度资料，统计得出欧亚大陆槽脊位置，亚洲南北两支锋区的位置、强度、走向等与鲁西南地区雾日密切相关，并选取优势因子建立鲁西南地区月、旬、候雾日预测方程，试报结果表明，用前期全球500hPa高度资料预测雾日具有一定的效果。     

一种高度测量方法的探讨

高度测量可以用水准测量、三角高程测量、数字化直接测量等多种测量方法,当前由于结构复杂的建构筑物日益增多,对于这类建构筑物的高度测量中,不一定都能顺利施测,常用的测量方法显示出其局限性。本文以对中国女排三连冠纪念碑碑高测量为例,介绍了一种新的高度测量方法——两站测角高度测量法。