Earthquakes as a potential contributing factor to climate change at multi-decadal scale

Climate changes at the multi-decadal scale are often associated with multi-decadal phase shifts of the dominant sea surface temperature （SST） pattern, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. The PDO may be associated with the North Pacific branch of the Thermohaline Circulation （THC）. Great earthquakes （M 〉8）, particularly along the route of the THC, might modulate the vertical mixing and bring deep, cold water to surface, contributing to multi-decadal changes in surface currents and the PDO. This may eventually lead to multi-decadal climate changes. We tested this hypothesis for the Pacific Ocean where great earthquakes have been frequently recorded. We found associations between the PDO and recurrent earthquakes along the route of the deep currents of the THC in the modern period since 1900, and relationships between hydroclimate change in Monsoonal Asia and historical earthquakes since 1300. However, it should be noted that this hypothesis is very preliminary and has many gaps that needs further evidences from more observational records and modeling studies.     

中国夏季和冬季极端干旱年代际变化及成因分析

依据1961～2009年中国区域540个气象站的夏、冬季气温和降水数据,首先采用气候变化趋势转折判别模型（简称PLFIM）分析了中国区域8个分区夏、冬季气温和降水的年代际变化,而后利用PDSI干旱指数研究了夏、冬季极端干旱在年代际尺度上的时空变化特征及其成因。结果表明:1961～2009年中国夏季极端干旱发生率北方大于南方,冬季则为在东部多而在西部少。夏季和冬季极端干旱发生概率在最后一次年代际转折后都呈增加趋势。在区域尺度上,夏季东北、华北和西北地区增加明显,冬季东北、华北、华南、西南地区增加显著。其中,降水在20世纪90年代以前的极端干旱变化中起主导作用,而后由于气候变暖所引起的极端干旱增加趋势逐渐增大,与降水变化的作用相互叠加。     

大型储油罐基础非均匀沉降的有限元分析研究

以中石化仪征15万m3大型浮顶储油罐工程为例,研究了砂石褥垫层对大型储油罐基础的差异沉降的影响。根据行业标准《建筑地基处理技术规范》(JGJ79—2012)沉降公式计算以及有限元模拟计算,并结合现场实测数据,验证了有限元模拟分析的可行性,在此基础上进行了环墙内砂石垫层厚度及长度对差异沉降影响的扩展研究,为以后的类似工程项目设计施工提供了借鉴。     

长江口及邻近海域浮游桡足类分类多样性研究

利用2003年6月和2006年6月在长江口及邻近海域进行的2次大面调查所采集的浮游桡足类网采样品,并结合前人的研究,综合整理了长江口及邻近海域的浮游桡足类种名录,分析了桡足类的种类组成,并采用分类多样性指数(Δ)、分类差异指数(Δ*)、平均分类差异指数(Δ+)和分类差异变异指数(Λ+)对长江口及邻近海域浮游桡足类的分类多样性进行了研究。结果表明:长江口及其邻近海域浮游桡足类有222种,隶属于4目,33科,70属;其中2003年夏季共记录到浮游桡足类72种,2006年夏季102种。根据长江口及邻近海域浮游桡足类总名录,计算了其平均分类差异指数(Δ+)和分类差异变异指数(Λ+)的理论平均值及95%置信漏斗曲线。其平均分类差异指数的理论平均值为84.9,高于2003年6月和2006年6月研究水域的平均分类差异指数的平均值。该研究可为长江口及其邻近海域浮游桡足类多样性动态研究提供基础资料,并为同类型水域的相关研究提供借鉴。     

Variability of tropical cyclone in high frequent occurrence regions over the western North Pacific

In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region E), are defined with frequency of TC's occurrence at each grid for a 45-year period(1965–2009), where the frequency of occurrence(FO) of TCs is triple the mean value of the whole western North Pacific. Over the region S, there are decreasing trends in the FO of TCs, the number of TCs' tracks going though this region and the number of TCs' genesis in this region. Over the region P, the FO and tracks demonstrate decadal variation with periods of 10–12 year, while over the region E, a significant 4–5 years' oscillation appears in both FO and tracks. It is demonstrated that the differences of TCs' variation in these three different regions are mainly caused by the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) at different time scales. The westward shift of WPSH is responsible for the northwesterly anomaly over the region S which inhibits westward TC movement into the region S. On the decadal timescale, the WPSH stretches northwestward because of the anomalous anticyclone over the northwestern part of the region P, and steers more TCs reaching the region P in the greater FO years of the region P. The retreating of the WPSH on the interannual time scale is the main reason for the FO's oscillation over the region E.     

江苏南部汛期降水日变化特征分析

利用江苏南部20个气象观测站2008—2012年汛期(5—10月)逐小时降水资料,应用降水频率来分析了江苏南部地区降水日变化基本特征和区域差异。研究表明:降水日变化特征地域性差异较强,西部站、东部站和东北沿海站都存在一定的特征差异。东部站降水量的最大值主要出现在下午和傍晚;西部站降水量主峰值出现在下午,并且在清晨和夜间还有两个次峰值;东北沿海站呈现出午前、午后的双峰值形式。2008—2011年降水量下午高值区有先减弱后增强并提前的趋势,而上午的高值区有总体减弱并推迟的特征。2011年后有明显减弱的趋势。江苏南部总体来说,短时强降水(大于20和25 mm/h)在16—19时出现主峰值,07—09时也有相对较小的次峰值。     

Statistical Downscaling of FGOALS-s2 Projected Precipitation in Eastern China

A statistical regression downscaling method was used to project future changes in precipitation over eastern China based on Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIPS） the Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） scenarios simulated by the second spectral version of the Flexible Global Ocean- Atmosphere-Land System （FGOALS-s2） model. Our val- idation results show that the downscaled time series agree well with the present observed precipitation in terms of both the annual mean and the seasonal cycle. The regres- sion models built from the historical data are then used to generate future projections. The results show that the en- hanced land-sea thermal contrast strengthens both the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific and the east Asian summer monsoon flow under both RCPs. However, the trend of precipitation in response to warming over the 21 st century are different across eastern Chi- na under different RCPs. The area to the north of 32°N is likely to experience an increase in annual mean precipitation, while for the area between 23°N and 32°N mean precipitation is projected to decrease slightly over this century under RCP8.5. The change difference between scenarios mainly exists in the middle and late century. The land-sea thermal contrast and the associated east Asian summer monsoon flow are stronger, such that precipitation increases more, at higher latitudes under RCP8.5 compared to under RCP4.5. For the region south of 32°N, rainfall is projected to increase slightly under RCP4.5 but decrease under RCP8.5 in the late century. At the high resolution of 5 km, our statistically downscaled results for projected precipitation can be used to force hydrological models to project hydrological processes, which will be of great benefit to regional water planning and management.     

Effect of Decadal Changes in Air-Sea Interaction on the Climate Mean State over the Tropical Pacific

Collaboration of interannual variabilities and the climate mean state determines the type of E1 Nifio. Recent studies highlight the impact of a La Nifia-like mean state change, which acts to suppress the convection and low-level convergence over the central Pacific, on the predominance of central Pacific （CP） E1 Nifio in the most recent decade. However, how interannual variabilities affect the climate mean state has been less thoroughly investigated. Using a linear shallow-water model, the ef- fect of decadal changes of air-sea interaction on the two types of El Nifio and the climate mean state over the tropical Pacific is examined. It is demonstrated that the predominance of the eastem Pacific （EP） and CP E1 Nino is dominated mainly by relationships between anomalous wind stresses and sea surface temperature （SST）. Furthermore, changes between air-sea interactions from 1980-98 to 1999-2011 prompted the generation of the La Ninalike pattern, which is similar to the background change in the most recent decade.     

The Second Decadal Leading Mode of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

The first decadal leading mode of East Asian summer rainfall （EASR） is characterized by rainfall anomalies along the East Asian subtropical rain belt. This study focuses on the second decadal leading mode （2DLM）, accounting for 17.3% of rainfall decadal vari- ance, as distinct from the other two neighboring modes of EAMR, based on the state-of-the-art in-situ rainfall data. This mode is characterized by a South-China-wet-Huaihe- River-dry pattern, and is dominated by a quasi-30-yr pe- riod. Further analysis reveals the 2DLM corresponds to an enhanced lower-level monsoon jet, an eastward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high, and a weakened East Asian upper-level westerly jet flow. The Tibetan Plateau surface temperature and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） are closely linked with the 2DLM. The regressed SST pattern indicates the PDO-like pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies may have a telecon- nection relationship with the 2DLM of EASR.     

西太平洋富钴结壳超微化石与分子化石地层划分及对比

对具典型三层构造的西太平洋海山群富钴结壳样品进行了钙质超微化石地层学研究,获取了富钴结壳从内层致密层、中间疏松层到外层较致密层的生长时代:CM1D03为晚古新世-早始新世、始新世中期、中中新世-更新世;CM3D06分为晚古新世-早始新世、中始新世-晚中新世、上新世-更新世。对富钴结壳壳层的甾烷系列分子(C27、C28、C29)进行了检测并计算了相对含量,结果表明,两块富钴结壳的甾烷分布构型在结壳生长时代上具有一致性:晚古新世-早始新世,呈反"L"型分布;中始新世呈C27优势的"V"型分布;中新世-更新世呈C29优势的"V"型分布。甾烷分布构型的变化与古海洋环境演化造成的海底甾烷输入波动有关,具有一定的时代特征钙质超微化石和分子化石地层学划分方法在富钴结壳层主要生长时代及生长间断的界定上具有一致性,可以用于富钴结壳的地层划分和对比。