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211.
基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的城市生活用水量预测 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
介绍灰色理论建模原理和模型参数辨识方法,并以上海市为实例建立灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,运用残差检验、后验差检验以及关联度检验3种方法对模型进行精度检验,其模型拟合精度达97.25%。用所建立的模型对上海市2003~2007年城市生活用水量进行预测。结果表明,该灰色模型用于城市生活用水量预测,符合其灰色特性,通用性好,并且所需数据少,计算量适中,预测结果与实际情况比较吻合。 相似文献
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为提高航测法数字线划图(DLG)的生产效率,尽可能减少外业作业时间,基于山东省卫星定位连续运行综合服务系统(SDCORS)的车载RTK技术进行高程注记点采集。采用不同时间(白天、晚上)、不同车速条件进行高程注记点连续采集,并与常规方法(全站仪、单基站RTK)采集高程点进行比较,求取高程中误差,认为在夜间以不大于20 km/h的车速进行采集精度较高。在数字海阳基础地理信息数据采集项目中,利用车载RTK采集346 km2范围内的沿路高程注记点,结果表明能够满足1∶500航测法成图精度要求。 相似文献
218.
In order to clarify the statistical pattern by which landfalling strong tropical cyclones(LSTCs)influenced the catastrophic migrations of rice brown planthopper(BPH),Nilaparvata lugens(stl)in China,the data of the LSTCs in China and the lighting catches of BPH that covered the main Chinese rice-growing regions from 1979 to 2008 were collected and analyzed in this work with the assistance of ArcGIS9.3,a software of geographic information system.The results were as follows:(1)In China,there were 220 strong tropical cyclones that passed the main rice-growing regions and 466 great events of BPH’s immigration in the 30 years from 1979 to 2008.73 of them resulted in the occurrence of BPH’s catastrphic migration(CM)events directly and 147 of them produced indirect effect on the migrations.(2)The number of the LSTCs was variable in different years during 1979 to 2008 and their influence was not the same in the BPH’s northward and southward migrations in the years.In the 30 years,the LSTCs brought more obvious influence on the migrations in 1980,1981,2005,2006 and 2007.The influence was the most obvious in2007 and all of the 7 LSTCs produced remarkable impact on the CMs of BPH’s populations.The effect of the LSTCs on the northward immigration of BPH’s populations was the most serious in 2006 and the influence on the southward immigration was the most remarkable in 2005.(3)In these years,the most of LSTCs occurred in July,August and September and great events of BPH's immigration occurred most frequently in the same months.The LSTCs played a more important role on the CM of BPH’s populations in the three months than in other months.(4)The analysis on the spatial distribution of the LSTCs and BPH’s immigration events for the different provinces showed that the BPH’s migrations in the main rice-growing regions of the Southeastern China were influenced by the LSTCs and the impact was different with the change of their spatial probability distribution during their passages.The most serious influence of the LSTCs on the BPH’s migrations occurred in Guangdong and Fujian provinces.(5)The statistical results indicated that a suitable insect source is an indispensable condition of the CMs of BPH when a LSTC influenced a rice-growing region. 相似文献
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A fully coupled 6-degree-of-freedom nonlinear dynamic model is presented to analyze the dynamic response of a semi-submersible platform which is equipped with the dynamic positioning (DP) system. In the control force design, a dynamic model of reference linear drift frequency in the horizontal plane is introduced. The dynamic surface control (DSC) is used to design a control strategy for the DP. Compared with the traditional back-stepping methods, the dynamic surface control combined with radial basis function (RBF) neural networks (NNs) can avoid differentiating intermediate variables repeatedly in every design step due to the introduction of a first order filter. Low frequency motions obtained from total motions by a low pass filter are chosen to be the inputs for the RBF NNs which are used to approximate the low frequency wave force. Considering the propellers’ wear and tear, the effect of filtering frequencies for the control force is discussed. Based on power consumptions and positioning requirements, the NN cen-ters are determined. Moreover, the RBF NNs used to approximate the total wave force are built to monitor the disturbances. With the DP assistance, the results of fully coupled dynamic response simulations are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed con-trol strategy. 相似文献
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从岩体结构控制论到综合集成方法论,反映的是又一次典型的发散性思维过程,其实质在于抓住主要矛盾的同时,还要考虑众多因素影响作用的存在。在土地资源日益紧张而大科学装置场址比选受多种因素制约影响情况下,如何从层次性、相关性、时效性等方面,更好地认识评价这些不同条件下场址的适宜可用性、因素可控性、工程可调性等问题,是摆在工程地质工作者面前更为具体而实际的工作。在服务于大亚湾中微子实验隧道、中国散裂中子源场址等8个大科学装置场址选评过程中,作者提出了基于一岩、一观和一法3个支撑点的地质工程评价与动态调控法,旨在主抓控制性结构要素、圈划不良地质体前提下,适时调整工程布设方案,提出与场地改造边界范围和扰动强度有关的施工建议,实现地质工程合理和谐调控。 相似文献