澳门—莲花福地日子长

今年是澳门回归十周年。十年前的12月20日,澳门回到祖国怀抱,中华人民共和国澳门特别行政区正式成立。今天,徜徉在澳门的大街小巷,感受着那份时而恬淡、时而浓郁的风情,看到的是一个宁静的澳门,一个繁华的澳门;一个传统的澳门,一个现代的澳门。     

使用Python函数式编程进行空间回归分析

针对使用传统的编程方式进行空间回归分析过于繁杂的问题,本文提出将Python函数式编程引入空间回归分析方法,分析和探讨脚本语言＋函数式编程方式在GIS数据分析中的推广应用前景。编程实践证明,采用Python函数式编程,结合既有的开源软件包,可以有效提高编程效率,减少代码量,将实践人员的注意力集中在问题本身。     

半参数模型统计诊断与粗差检验(英文)

This paper systematically studies the statistical diagnosis and hypothesis testing for the semiparametric linear regression model according to the theories and methods of the statistical diagnosis and hypothesis testing for parametric regression model.Several diagnostic measures and the methods for gross error testing are derived.Especially,the global and local influence analysis of the gross error on the parameter X and the nonparameter s are discussed in detail;at the same time,the paper proves that the d...     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

台风对海洋叶绿素a浓度影响的定量遥感初探

研究台风对海洋水色环境的影响,是目前海洋遥感技术又一应用领域。由于台风期间天气恶劣,遥感资料较少,国际上主要针对个别典型台风,研究其对海表温度、海洋叶绿素a浓度及初级生产力的影响,很少通过遥感资料系统地对这一影响进行定量分析和建模。自2000到2007年,过境中国近海以及西北太平洋海域台风近百次,作者通过系统地分析这期间MODIS,SeaWiFS的3A级叶绿素a浓度数据,结果发现:(1)台风促进了相应海域叶绿素a浓度的大幅增长,总体上平均增长约1.426倍,个别区域在5倍以上,同时,该增长一般延后3~6d,在7~10d后恢复到原来的水平;(2)进一步对这些数据进行一元统计线性回归,发现叶绿素a浓度增长比(R_chl-a)与台风影响因子(Tsub>w)满足如下关系:R_chl-a=0.0012Tsub>w+1.017,其相关系数达0.8;(3)台风期间叶绿素a浓度与无台风时叶绿素a浓度之间有很强的线性关系,其关系满足:C_chl-a=1.2367C_0chl-a+0.0636,且相关系数高达0.98。这一初步研究结果对进一步通过遥感手段深入研究台风对海洋水色环境的影响有借鉴意义。     

防范海洋灾害风险提高渔民收入促进农民增收

青岛市渔民收入与农民收入间关系的回归模型显示,前者对后者有着很大的促进作用,渔民收入提高可以从总体上增加农民的收入水平.而采取有效措施切实规避制约养殖渔业发展的海洋灾害、养殖病害、市场风险和引苗育种瓶颈四大问题,是促进渔民收入提高的关键所在.在用数据统计分析方法探寻渔民收入与农民收入相关关系的基础上,提出了解决海洋灾害问题的政策措施,以求有效阻止青岛市渔民收入连年递减的趋势,进而切实保障青岛市农民收入的持续增加.     

反射光谱技术:研究南极企鹅古生态演化的一种新方法

为探求快速、廉价、无损和同步的光谱技术在南极生态环境研究中的可能性,本文利用南极阿德雷岛的四根企鹅粪土沉积柱样品的反射光谱,通过逐步多元线性回归和主成分回归两种数学运算方法,建立了反射光谱数据与企鹅粪九种标型元素浓度之间的关系,并探讨了南极企鹅粪土沉积物光谱数据的古生态意义。结果表明:南极粪土沉积样品反射率光谱与企鹅粪九种标型元素(P、Ca、Cu、F、Ba、S、Zn、Sr、Se)含量之间存在良好的相关性,预测值与实测值之间的相关系数R都达到了0.9以上,在深度剖面上预测浓度与实测浓度具有非常一致的变化趋势;南极粪土沉积物光谱数据包含有明确的古生态变化信息,可利用主成分分析快速恢复历史时期企鹅数量演化过程。本研究结果为在偏远的南极地区开展古生态环境研究提供了一种新的快捷方法和技术途径。     

上海沿海极大风速预报方程的建立和应用

运用统计分析方法,对上海沿海3个浮标站的逐小时的2min平均风速和极大风速进行分析,发现两种风速具有很好的线性关系。通过建立两种风速的回归方程,获得了估计极大风速的客观方程,对3个浮标站,单站一元一次回归方程都能很好得反映2 min平均风速和极大风速的关系,实测极大风速与拟合极大风速的平均绝对误差均小于1 m/s;3个浮标的拟合数据都是以正偏差为主;3个浮标拟合偏差2 m/s的样本数都在5%以下。利用WRF模式预报风速进行极大风速试报,结果表明,3个浮标实测极大风速与预报极大风速的平均绝对误差均小于2 m/s,偏差4 m/s的样本数在10%以下,TS评分均在74分以上,建立的极大风速客观预报方程的效果比较理想。     

温度和体重对花尾胡椒鲷幼鱼最大摄食量的影响

研究了花尾胡椒鲷幼鱼的最大摄食量与温度和体重的关系。花尾胡椒鲷幼鱼的最大摄食量与体重呈正相关 ,二者的关系为 :Cmax=1 5 95 .3W0 .6 87(Cmax:最大摄食量 ,J/d ;W :体重 ,g)。最大摄食量随温度的变化情况为 :在实验温度为 2 2～ 2 8℃范围内 ,二者呈正相关 ,超过 2 8℃之后呈负相关。最大摄食率与体重的相关关系为 :Rmax=1 5 0 7.6W-0 .313[(Rmax:最大摄食率 ,J/(d·g) ]。采用回归分析 ,建立了由温度和体重预测该种鱼的最大摄食量和最大摄食率的模型 :Cmax=2 86 790e-0 .90 4ln(T3-77.738T2 1985 .185T -16 42 9.710 ) W0 .6 16 　n =1 6 ,r =0 .994Rmax=0 .887e1.2 6 4ln(-T3 78.0 6 1T2 -2 0 0 3.397T 172 36 .5 2 0 ) W-0 .2 83　n =1 6 ,r=0 .978