天津市滨海地区地面沉降灾害风险评估与区划

文章对1985~2006年累计地面沉降量及近几年地面沉降速率进行分析和叠加评价,完成天津市滨海地区地面沉降灾害危险性分区图;以人口密度和单位面积GDP为指标进行易损性分析;从每km²水准测量km数和地下水压采量占开采量百分比两方面考虑防灾减灾能力;在此基础上,借助GIS空间分析方法,将危险性分区图、易损性分区图和防灾减灾能力分区图进行叠加分析,完成天津市滨海地区地面沉降灾害风险区划图,分为低风险区、较低风险区、中等风险区、较高风险区、高风险区5等。     

基于协整Granger因果分析的地区一体化进程研究——以京津冀和长三角为例

基于协整分析和Granger因果检验,分析了京津冀和长三角1980年以来地区一体化发展进程.研究发现,从总体上看,京津冀和长三角地区一体化进程都在不断加深.京津冀地区,1980-1992年,北京与天津、北京与河北间都不存在Granger关系,天津和河北不存在协整关系;1993-2004年间,京津冀区域一体化不断加深,北京是河北、北京是天津的Granger原因;长三角地区,上海与江苏不存在协整关系,1980-1992年,上海与浙江、江苏与浙江之间不存在Granger因果关系,而在1992-2004年,上海与浙江、江苏与浙江均存在Granger因果关系.     

中国南方调整水稻种植格局——一种水稻生产预先适应气候变化的选择(英文)

Rice planted in southern China accounts for 94% of the total in sown acreage and 88% of the total in production, which matters a lot to Chinese food security. However, due to the prolonged conflict between water availability and rice growth in spatial/temporal distribu-tion, rice production suffers from seasonal drought at acreage of 16%-22%, which compro-mises food production capacity and food security. Focusing on the spatial distribution of seasonal drought with rice and the practices to adapt to it, and based on an analysis of bal-anced water supply for and demand by rice at a growing season scale during 1981-2030, this paper assesses the changing seasonal drought in the process of rice production under the changing climate in the future, and identifies general rice re-cultivation options for climate change adaptation. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Rice suggests a decline in seasonal drought, with early season rice (early rice hereafter) by 12,500 km2, middle season rice (middle rice) by 80,000 km2, and in particular late season rice (late rice) by 25,000 km2, which accounts for almost 20% of its cultivated acreage. It is indicated that due to climate change, seasonal drought in major rice producing areas tends to alleviate in general, late season rice in particular. (2) Future climate change brings about a significant impact on the spatial/temporal distribution of water resources in rice producing areas in China. Based on ’pre-designed’ adaptation actions for rice-re-cultivation, the rice cultivation pattern undergoes a significant alteration between 1981-2000 and 2001-2030. In eastern Guizhou and western Hunan, the pattern of single early plus single dry farming is changed into double cropping. In eastern Hunan, the pattern of dry cropping is changed into single early plus single dry farming. In northern Anhui, the pattern of dry farming cropping is changed into middle rice. All this is aimed at a potential adequate availability of water for rice production in the future. (3) Rice re-cultivation patterns developed in this paper help re-balance water demand and supply for rice growth using the spatial analysis tool to adapt rice growth to the changing water avail-ability from spatial perspective, and come up with rice producer-friendly re-cultivation options in response to climate change.     

“过去300年中国东部季风区雨带进退图谱与模拟诊断”研究进展

“中国季风环境在不同时间尺度上的演化历史及其驱动机制”是我国全球变化研究所关注的核心科学问题之一。为深入系统地开展对这一问题的研究,国家自然科学基金委员会的《全球变化及其区域响应科学研究计划》在“十五”期间陆续启动了一系列重点项目,“过去300年中国东部季风区雨带进退图谱与模拟诊断”项目（编号40331013,2004年初起实施）就是其中之一。本项目旨在利用丰富的清代雨雪档案记载,重建1736年以来黄河中下游地区与江淮流域35⁴0个站点时间分辨率为月、季的降水序列;并分析该区域1736年以来年、年代际降水变化与雨带进退的时空特征分析,诊断该区域过去300年特征时段降水变化的成因及其动力学机理     

2008年初南方雨雪冰冻灾害及其对山地灾害的影响

2008年初中国南方出现了历史同期罕见的持续大范围低温、雨雪和冰冻的极端天气,造成大面积雨雪冰冻灾害,直接经济损失达1 500多亿元.根据中国气象局观测资料,结合山地灾害的形成条件和影响因素,分析了冰雪灾害引发山地灾害的可能性及其对山地灾害的影响,并提出了减灾对策.     

传统农业地区能值生态足迹分析——以贵州省从江县为例

传统农业生态系统正面临着来自现代化发展及其带来的技术经济变革的严重威胁,在一些传统农业地区现代农业替代传统农业已经引发了严重的生态环境问题。生态足迹,作为可持续发展评价的方法之一,由于无法全面衡量人类活动对生态系统造成的各种影响,因此无法揭示传统农业地区真实的生态环境状况,也无法给出科学合理的可持续发展评价。能值生态足迹是对传统生态足迹的一种改进,试图利用能值分析理论的优点囊括人类利用生态系统产品和服务的各种活动。然而,目前能值生态足迹研究往往受到传统生态足迹理论的局限,无法真正将人类消费的各种资源、产品和服务纳入进来。为此,本文将生态系统服务概念引入能值生态足迹理论框架中,进一步改进和完善了能值生态足迹模型,使之能够全面衡量人类活动的生态环境影响。本文利用改进的能值生态足迹模型,以我国传统农业地区贵州省从江县为例,开展生态环境状况评估和可持续发展评价。结果表明,从江县2007年人均能值生态承载力为9.3311 ha,人均能值生态足迹为14.5638 ha,人均能值生态赤字为5.2327 ha。可见,从江县的生态承载力仅能满足当地居民消费总需求的64%,当地处于不可持续发展状态,生态环境状况不容乐观。这与传统生态足迹的评价结果差异十分显著。传统生态足迹评价结果显示,从江县的生态承载力不仅能够满足当地居民的消费需求而且有少量生态盈余。进一步分析显示,从江县居民对生态系统的污染物吸纳服务和侵蚀控制服务的消费,在从江县总生态足迹中占有相当大的比例。这说明,从江县传统农业生产方式受现代农业影响而发生的部分改变,所产生的生态环境影响已经逐步显现。过量施用化肥农药所引起的面源污染以及频繁翻耕和砍伐森林所引起的水土流失,已经严重威胁当地的生态环境健康和可持续发展。     

The key indicators of transboundary water apportionment based on international laws and cases

Transboundary water, more competitive utilization and uncertain availability under the globalization trend, the issue of its apportionment which directly impacts national benefits of each riparian state is becoming one of the important topics in the world. Water is scarce in China, the most important upstream state in Asia, and this task has to be thought over in the coming future. Based on ＂International Freshwater Treaties Database＂ （1820-2007） by Oregon State University, and publications and reports on transboundary water utilization and management since 1999, 28 indicators of water apportionment adopted in 49 international treaties and cases in 1864-2002 are divided into 6 types, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the adopted indicators are analyzed in order to find the key indicator（s） of transboundary water apportionment. The major results include： the major adopted indicators, have significant differences among 5 regions/continents, the indicators at rank first and second place in the developed region （North America and Europe） according to the adopted times are ＂keeping minimum water flow＂ and ＂mean annual runoff＂, but in the developing region （Asia, Africa and South America）, the ranking order of the above two indicators is reversed; the major adopted indicators in the watersheds with insufficient water are ＂mean annual runoff＂ and ＂keeping minimum water flow＂, the ones in the watersheds with sufficient water are ＂keeping minimum water flow＂ and ＂maximum water intake＂; the international treaties signed from the first phase to the fourth phase, the developing process shows a progress of ＂fewer-increasing a lot-decreasing rapidly-equation basically＂, the regional distribution of the treaties shifts mainly from the developed region to the developing one, especially to Asia and Africa; the major adopted indicators shifts from ＂keeping minimum water flow＂ and ＂mean annual runoff＂ in 1864-1945, to ＂keeping minimum water flow＂ and ＂maximum water intake＂ in 1946-1971, then to ＂hydraulic facility operation＂ and ＂mean annual runoff＂ in 1972-1991, and finally to ＂keeping minimum water flow＂ and ＂mean annual runoff＂ in 1992-2002, the process shows similar a loop. Finally, the key indicator on transboundary water apportionment can be determined as ＂keeping minimum water flow＂.     

无锡半城市化地区的空间范围识别

半城市化地区是近年国内外城市地理研究的新焦点。半城市化地区处于城市、乡村的模糊界限之中,受城乡共同作用,具有显著的过渡性、动态性和不稳定等特征,是发展变化最大的区域,对经济社会发展空间的可持续性具有重要影响。目前,半城市化地区空间范围的确定以定性分析为主,缺乏定量分析的实证与理论研究,并且大部分拘泥于行政边界限制。本文在探讨半城市化地区内涵基础上,建立包含建设用地占比、景观紊乱度、人口密度和二三产业增加值四个指标的指标体系,以无锡市区为例,借助ArcGIS 软件运算分析指标在360 个方向上的距离衰减突变值(DDV),结合“断裂点”方法,界定出无锡半城市化地区的范围,为未来半城市化地区空间演变研究奠定基础。     

青藏地区入境旅游共生关系检验研究

 由于区域背景和旅游区域合作的共生环境,青藏地区旅游在本质上存在一种共生关系。引入种群生态学中的共生理论,从定量评估的角度分析了青藏地区之间的共生关系,结果显示：青藏地区两共生单元之间存在正相关;共生单元之间的特征共生度均为“+”,表示青海和西藏两个共生单元为共生关系,且两个单元处于正向非对称共生状态;共生单元相关系数0.5＜θMa＜1,说明青海入境旅游对西藏的影响较大,而西藏入境旅游对青海的影响却较弱。说明地理邻近和历史关系结构邻近的青藏文化地理单元入境旅游之间紧密相关,存在较强的共生关系。     

The atmospheric circulation patterns influencing the frequency of spring sand-dust storms in the Tarim Basin

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the sand-storm frequency data fi＇om 37 weather stations in the Tarim Basin for the period 1961-2009, the relationship between the frequency of spring sandstorms in the Tafim Basin and the associated atmospheric circu- lation pattems is analyzed in this study. We found significantly negative correlations between sandstorm frequency and the 500-hPa geopotential height over the Paris Basin and midwestem Mongolia, while there were positive correlations over the Ural River region. The rising of the 500-hPa geopotential height in midwestem Mongolia and its falling over the Ural region corre- spond to a weakening of the large-scale wave patterns in the Eurasian region, which directly causes the frequency of the sand-dust storms in the Tarim Basin to decline. Also, the abrupt decline in the spring sandstorm frequency in the Tarim Basin observed in the last half-century is associated with profound changes in the atmospheric circulation in these key regions. At the interannual scale, the strengthened cyclonic atmospheric circulation patterns in the western part of Mongolia and the anticyclonic patterns over the East European plains at 500-hPa geopotential height, are responsible for frequent sandstorm occurrences in the Tarim Basin.