不同空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价模型对比研究

以山洪灾害风险评价的多准则决策模型、最大熵模型、信息量模型三种常见模型为研究对象,选取河西走廊和张掖市为地理区划（大中）、市域（小）空间尺度研究区,构建山洪灾害风险评价指标体系,分别完成基于三种模型的两种空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价制图,基于甘肃省地质灾害调查与区划报告数据从模型验证、空间自相关、精度对比和尺度效应等角度对比分析三个模型应用于不同空间尺度的适应性,并给出优选模型。结果表明：最大熵模型是河西走廊（地理区划）空间尺度上山洪灾害风险评价的优选模型;多准则决策模型不适用于张掖市（市域）空间尺度评价,且三个模型运行结果均没有河西走廊（地理区划）空间尺度上表现良好;三个模型的尺度效应明显,在地理区划空间尺度上应用较良好,缩小至市域空间尺度上模拟结果误差增大;不同空间尺度上,最大熵模型均优于多准则决策模型和信息量模型,适用于地理区划（大中）、市域（小）空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价。     

Iterative implicit integration procedure for hybrid simulation of large nonlinear structures

A fully implicit iterative integration procedure is presented for local and geographically distributed hybrid simulation of the seismic response of complex structural systems with distributed nonlinear behavior. The purpose of this procedure is to seamlessly incorporate experimental elements in simulations using existing fully implicit integration algorithms designed for pure numerical simulations. The difficulties of implementing implicit integrators in a hybrid simulation are addressed at the element level by introducing a safe iteration strategy and using an efficient procedure for online estimation of the experimental tangent stiffness matrix. In order to avoid physical application of iterative displacements, the required experimental restoring force at each iteration is estimated from polynomial curve fitting of recent experimental measurements. The experimental tangent stiffness matrix is estimated by using readily available experimental measurements and by a classical diagonalization approach that reduces the number of unknowns in the matrix. Numerical and hybrid simulations are used to demonstrate that the proposed procedure provides an efficient method for implementation of fully implicit numerical integration in hybrid simulations of complex nonlinear structures. The hybrid simulations presented include distributed nonlinear behavior in both the numerical and experimental substructures. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

四川芦山 MS7．0地震震源机制解

使用中国数字地震台网记录的区域和远震宽频带波形,通过频率域和时间域多步反演,研究四川芦山 MS 7．0地震基于点源模型的震源机制解和有限断层模型。考虑到使用不同波形资料类型、盆地效应及简化的一维速度模型等给反演震源参数带来的影响,经测试比较,结果表明：使用区域波形和本区域简化一维速度模型,波形拟合误差最小。此次地震表现为高倾角纯逆冲型事件矩心在水平方向上位于震中偏南西向约4．5 km,最佳波形拟合矩心深度约17 km,矩震级 MW约6．6。推断此地震大多数能量主要在震源偏南西约4．5 km 处释放。     

利用混合法构建三维数字岩心(英文)

在弹性波有三维数字岩心描述了岩石的微观孔隙结构。X射线CT扫描是获取三维数字岩心最准确和直接的方法,但实验成本高。本文结合沉积过程模拟和模拟退火算法,提出了重建三维数字岩心的混合法,基于岩石二维图像重建三维数字岩心。利用岩石颗粒沉积算法构建初始数字岩心,作为模拟退火算法的初始状态。运用模拟退火算法调整岩石颗粒和孔隙的相对位置,使三维数字岩心与岩心二维图像具有相似的自相关函数,从而建立三维数字岩心。与传统模拟退火算法相比,该方法计算时间明显减小。运用局部孔隙度理论定量比较了重建数字岩心和岩心X射线微CT图像,两种数字岩心具有相似的均质性和孔隙连通性。利用有限元方法和格子玻尔兹曼方法分别模拟了重建三维数字岩心的地层因素和渗透率,数值模拟结果与实验结果相符。相比传统模拟退火算法,混合法重建数字岩心的传导特性更接近真实岩心的传导特性。     

云南东川区播卡金矿地球化学分带模式及深部隐伏矿体预测

为了探索播卡深部的找矿空间及找矿方向,本文在播卡矿区钻孔样品分析数据的基础上,研究了播卡金矿床的元素富集规律、元素组合、元素异常在地表及空间的分布特征,建立了播卡金矿的原生晕分带模型、地球化学勘查模式,提出了不同深度的原生晕判别指标,在此基础上对播卡金矿的深部隐伏矿体进行了预测。结果显示播卡金矿的深部及邻区具有寻找隐伏矿体的良好前景。     

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

西园隧洞引水工程对滇池CODMn的影响分析

本文在滇池湖流特性研究的基础上,建立了滇池平面二维ＣＯＤＭｎ输移扩散数学模型, 模型对污染物进入滇池水体后的输移扩散规律进行模拟分析,对滇池周围西园隧洞引水工程第一系列污染控制工程措施对滇池主要污染指标ＣＯＤＭｎ的影响进行评价,为综合治理滇池提供了理论依据。     

地面核磁共振模型约束反演含水层参数

导电模型的地面核磁共振感应电动势是含水量的非线性函数.引入模型约束的迭代反演方法求解该非线性问题的反演.在反演过程中,根据理论公式计算迭代过程中灵敏度矩阵,并采用平坦模型和光滑模型两种约束.对均匀半空间、层状导电模型和实际数据进行了反演模拟,结果表明,模型约束迭代反演方法能从地面核磁共振感应电动势获得含水层较为合理的含水量及分布,且该结果可以从作为初始模型的均匀含水量分布反演得到.对无噪音数据,平坦模型和光滑模型约束对反演的含水量分布影响不大;但当数据存在一定的噪音时,平坦模型约束将比光滑模型约束获得更为精确的含水层参数.     

Effect of spatial variability of cross‐correlated soil properties on bearing capacity of strip footing

Geotechnical engineering problems are characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of these sources are connected to the uncertainties of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure for a probabilistic analysis that considers the spatial variability of cross‐correlated soil properties is presented and applied to study the bearing capacity of spatially random soil with different autocorrelation distances in the vertical and horizontal directions. The approach integrates a commercial finite difference method and random field theory into the framework of a probabilistic analysis. Two‐dimensional cross‐correlated non‐Gaussian random fields are generated based on a Karhunen–Loève expansion in a manner consistent with a specified marginal distribution function, an autocorrelation function, and cross‐correlation coefficients. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses was performed to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the bearing capacity of a rough strip footing. The simulations provide insight into the application of uncertainty treatment to geotechnical problems and show the importance of the spatial variability of soil properties with regard to the outcome of a probabilistic assessment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

上软下硬地层浅埋大跨度车站拆撑安全性分析

对于复合式衬砌隧道,初支受力最危险的时期就是为保证二次衬砌的完整性而分段拆除临时支撑的阶段。依托青岛地铁某暗挖车站,采用现场实测数据分析和数值模拟相结合的方法,对比拆撑前后围岩与初支变形情况,进而对6 m范围内交替拆撑,并以6 m为工作单元间隔拆撑的拆撑方案安全性进行分析。实测数据表明,地表沉降、拱顶沉降及净空收敛在拆撑前后增长量及影响均较小,数值计算结果与实测数据吻合较好,可知初支的安全性受支撑拆除的影响较小。研究结论为实现信息化施工提供了依据,也为今后类似工程积累了相关经验。