地理信息服务中数据传输性能分析

地理信息服务系统具有数据密集型和计算密集型的特点,对网络环境的设置有着特殊的需求。本文从地理信息服务系统中对数据传输应用的角度出发,从网络数据传输协议的传输层和应用层两个层次分析地理信息服务系统应用的特殊性,并根据系统应用的特殊需求提出相应的解决方案,提高整个应用系统中各类数据传输的效率、性能和系统运行的稳定性,提高地理信息服务系统为多用户提供地图服务、位置服务以及各种应用服务的综合能力。提高系统适应多用户并发访问海量数据的地图服务作业和频繁访问实效性很强的位置服务作业的能力。     

全球数值模式中的台风初始化Ⅱ: 业务应用

由于缺少大量有效的观测资料,台风初始化对数值天气预报业务模式而言,仍然是一个悬而末决的难题.中国国家气象中心自从1996年将台风数值预报系统投入业务运行以来,一直使用经验的人造bogus涡旋台风初始化技术.实际上,不同时期的台风有着不同的环流结构,即使同一个台风在不同的生命期也具有不同的结构特征,而这些结构特征的差异并不能依靠现有的bogus涡旋技术体现出来,这种主观方法的统一性与台风在时空上的差异性形成了强烈的反差.最近,基于国家气象中心全球资料分析同化-预报循环系统,设计和发展了一套新的台风初始化业务方案,它主要由初始涡旋形成、涡旋重定位和涡旋调整3部分过程组成.相比于业务中使用的人造bogus涡旋台风初始化方案,新方案在很大程度上减少了人为因素对台风涡旋结构的影响,而更多地是依靠数值模式自身的动力和物理过程来协调约束产生三维空间的涡旋结构.应用新方案,文中对生成于西北太平洋的2006年0605号台风格美(Kaemi)进行了数值试验,初步分析表明,新方案在实现台风涡旋环流结构的初始化方面效果较好,同时,对台风格美多个时次的预报结果也显示,相比于业务使用的bogus方案而言,新方案对台风路径平均预报误差有了大幅度的降低.     

Experiments of DSAEF_LTP Model with Two Improved Parameters for Accumulated Precipitation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Southeast China

The Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) utilises an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for the forecast track, while the precipitation forecast is obtained by finding analog cyclones, and making a precipitation forecast from an ensemble of the analogs. This study addresses TCs that occurred from 2004 to 2019 in Southeast China with 47 TCs as training samples and 18 TCs for independent forecast experiments. Experiments use four model versions. The control experiment DSAEF_LTP_1 includes three factors including TC track, landfall season, and TC intensity to determine analogs. Versions DSAEF_LTP_2, DSAEF_LTP_3, and DSAEF_LTP_4 respectively integrate improved similarity region, improved ensemble method, and improvements in both parameters. Results show that the DSAEF_LTP model with new values of similarity region and ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_4) performs best in the simulation experiment, while the DSAEF_LTP model with new values only of ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_3) performs best in the forecast experiment. The reason for the difference between simulation (training sample) and forecast (independent sample) may be that the proportion of TC with typical tracks (southeast to northwest movement or landfall over Southeast China) has changed significantly between samples. Forecast performance is compared with that of three global dynamical models (ECMWF, GRAPES, and GFS) and a regional dynamical model (SMS-WARMS). The DSAEF_LTP model performs better than the dynamical models and tends to produce more false alarms in accumulated forecast precipitation above 250 mm and 100 mm. Compared with TCs without heavy precipitation or typical tracks, TCs with these characteristics are better forecasted by the DSAEF_LTP model.     

THE EFFECTS OF BOGUS TYPHOON AND OBSERVED OCEANIC DATA ON THE ABILITY OF T_(213)L_(31) TO PREDICT TC TRACK

The abilities of typhoon (TC) track prediction by a medium-range forecast model T213L31 at National Meteorological Center are analyzed and its ability to improve its TC forecasts is discussed. The results show that about 57% of the TCs could be predicted by T213L31 but the initial position errors are large.The 43% area without the prediction of TC tracks is concentrated between 13°N and 20°N and east of 120°E and lack of conventional observation data is the main reason for the absence of TC prediction in this area.The adding of bogus TC could improve the ability of TC track prediction when there is no TC vortex in the analysis field, but could only have positive effects on the short-range TC track prediction when there is TC vortex in the T213L31 analysis field.     

热带气旋进入北部湾后强度增强的环流特征分析

利用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料，对1949年以来7个进入北部湾后强度突然增强的热带气旋（TC）环流背景特征及物理量场特征进行分析，结果表明，有利TC进入北部湾后强度增强的环流背景是：（1）西太平洋副热带高压稳定加强西伸，（2）热带辐合带北抬至华南沿海活动，（3）西南季风爆发处于活跃期，（4）东风波西移叠加，（5）有适度的弱冷空气侵入；对物理量场的合成分析表明，TC进入北部湾前和进入北部湾后，环流中心附近500hPa涡度变化极小，200hPa高空散度增大，500hPa垂直上升速度增大，850hPa中南半岛水汽输送量增大。     

Impacts of TRMM SRR assimilation on the numerical prediction of tropical cyclone

1 IntroductionObservation of the tropical rainfall is crucial forthe research on tropical weather and climate. Nu-merous studies have shown that the ingestion of rain-fall data into a numerical model can have considera-ble impacts on simulation results(Kr…     

3套资料中西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征的比较分析

本文使用中国气象局、美国联合台风预警中心和日本气象厅的3套热带气旋最佳路径资料(CMA资料、JTWC资料和RSMC资料)分析了1951—2016年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征。3套资料反映的结果如下:热带气旋主要发生在10°N—25°N范围内,且1980年前其位置点在纬度上有南移的变化趋势,1980年后则相反;移速主要分布在2~6 m/s区间,在25°N左右移速明显加快,1980年前移速呈显著减小趋势;最大持续风速主要分布在10~15 m/s区间,1980年前最大持续风速有减小趋势;在风速较大的区域热带气旋最大风速半径较小,2001—2016年热带气旋和台风最大风速半径每年分别减小0.46 km和0.54 km。CMA和RSMC资料的结果高度一致,而JTWC资料结果与它们都存在一定的差异。热带气旋位置点频数和强度的变化受资料间差异的影响较大,而其位置及移速的变化则受影响较小。     

TRMM海表降水率同化在热带气旋Danas(2001) 数值模拟中的应用研究

研究了TRMM/TMI海表降水率资料的四维变分同化在热带气旋(TC)数值模拟中的作用.使用中尺度气象模式MM5设计了若干数值试验模拟了TC Danas(2001)由热带低压初生到台风生成的发展过程.在满足MM5模式动力约束的前提下,将TRMM海表降水率资料直接同化进入较高分辨率(18 km)的模式初始场.结果表明,使用MM5模式的4D-VAR同化系统直接同化TRMM/TMI海表降水率资料是可行的.这种做法提高了TRMM资料的利用率,不仅在模式初始场中加入了更多实测信息,而且避免了两次同化(1DVAR+4DVAR)可能引起的误差.直接同化TRMM资料通过调整气压、温度、湿度等要素初始场,改善了模式对热带气旋结构(如暖心、涡度、散度)的描述和降水的模拟.在此基础上,同化不仅改进了对Danas强度的模拟,而且成功地模拟了热带气旋环境场的演变过程,因而改进了路径的模拟.     

Impacts of New Implementing Strategies for Surface and Model Physics Perturbations in TREPS on Forecasts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

To improve the ensemble prediction system of the tropical regional atmosphere model for the South China Sea(TREPS) in predicting landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), the impacts of three new implementing strategies for surface and model physics perturbations in TREPS were evaluated for 19 TCs making landfall in China during 2014–16. For sea surface temperature(SST) perturbations, spatially uncorrelated random perturbations were replaced with spatially correlated ones. The multiplier f, which is u...     

Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets

Analyzed in this paper are the 16-yr (1988-2003) tropical cyclone (TC) intensity data from three major forecast centers of the western North Pacific, i.e., China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States. Results show that there are significant discrepancies (at 1% significance level) in the intensity of TCs among the three centers, with a maximum difference for the same TC over 30 m s-1. The flight reconnaissance over TC can minish the discrepancy to some extent. A climatic and persistent prediction model is set up to study the impact of initial data from different forecast centers on the prediction of TC intensity. It is obtained that the root mean square error (RMSE) of a 4-yr independent test is the largest using data from JTWC, while the smallest using data from RSMC Tokyo. Average absolute deviation in 24-h intensity prediction is 2.5 m s-1 between CMA and RSMC Tokyo data, and 4.0 m s-1 between CMA and JTWC data, with a maximum deviation reaching 21 m s-1. Such a problem in the initial value increases the difficulty in intensity prediction of TCs over the western North Pacific.