Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An approach to quantitative analysis of regional economic links

Aimed at promoting regional coalitions and expanding the approach to economic links, this paper puts forward some new concepts such as link intensity and receiving coefficient, expounds the indexes of quantitative analysis of economic links and establishes the quantitative-analysis model of economic links. With help of the model, this paper calculates the values of the link intensities between Su-Xi-Chang (Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou) region and Shanghai, and analyzes the regional difference of the economic links.     

太阳黑子、厄尔尼诺及西北太平洋热带气旋的活动

本文用１９００～１９９４年的资料，以统计分析的方法，对太阳黑子，厄尔尼诺及西北太平洋热带气旋活动的相互关系，进行了初步探讨，归纳出几点有参考价值的结论     

地形摩擦对台风移动的影响

本文从动力学的角度研究了台风流场与台风运动的关系,在实际预报中考虑地形摩擦改变的流场对台风移动的影响取得了明显的效果。     

A new approach for predicting the extreme response of structures

In this article a method to estimate the mean upcrossing intensity, μ(u), of a stochastic process is proposed. It is assumed that the stochastic process is a sum of a Gaussian process and a second-order correction term. The method is based on the two-dimensional Saddlepoint approximation. The accuracy of the method is tested on processes having analytical solutions for μ(u). Numerical examples are given where the stochastic process represents (i) the horizontal response of a floating offshore structure in a Gaussian sea, and (ii) the response of a structure subjected to a Gaussian wind velocity process. In addition, the estimates are compared to empirical upcrossing intensities of simulated responses. For case (ii), the obtained μ(u) estimates are compared to estimates obtained by numerical integration.     

哀牢山-红河断裂带中段应变分析

对哀牢山—红河断裂带中段和平—水塘剖面、墨江—元江剖面和其它地段的岩石应变及磁组构进行了分析，表明应变强度的校正磁各向异性度PJ从断裂带向西至三叠系明显降低，变形强度向西迅速减弱。磁化率椭球体主轴展布反映出剪切带内、外变形方式的改变。剪切带内，以水平走滑运动为主；向西则以水平缩短为主。在应变分析中，对断裂带内的S—C组构两组面理夹角、杏仁体和石榴石应变标志体进行了测量，结果显示，剪切带内的磁组构和岩石组构间关系较差。此外，还对这两条剖面中的三叠系进行了应变和磁组构分析，找出了它们与磁化率椭球体对应轴率间的相关性。     

能量分析在台风短期预报业务中的应用

本文以９４１４、９４１５号两个连续北上台风为例，证明能量场的分布与台风移向有着明显的对应关系。     

成像光谱矿物填图精度兼与矿物丰度关系初探

成像光谱遥感技术在岩石矿物识别和矿物填图方面发挥着越来越大作用,而成像光谱矿物填图的精度问题一直是研究的焦点。文章利用高光谱数据HyMap对新疆东天山地区的矿物填图结果,通过引入矿物填绘分布强度的概念,探索性的分析了成像光谱矿物填图与填绘矿物丰度的关系。     

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。